2 for one Quiznos and other randomness

[vvalkyri]

Don't mind me - too much coffee not enough sleep and need to drink some water.
And still feeling Monday night's class.

But anyway 2 quizno's subs for $6, if anybody cares

Comments

[shadeofnight]

The debt ceiling is not linked to out bond rating from what I can tell (from what I read today). I just read a story where the bound people might downgrade our rating ANYWAY because we are spending too much money and our limit to what we can owe and earn is reaching the point where AAA is no longer deserved.

In other words, even if we raise the debt ceiling this has no real effect on if the bond groups will lower our ratings, because we are spending too much and have not the incoming to support our current spending patterns.

The bounds groups say they want at least 4 trillion in cuts to spending (which once you remove all of the fake savings from the Reid's plan even it also falls way short), they might have to cut the rating.

The real question, is will this actually have any real effect long term. There is some speculation that our bonds will still be worth more than a AAA bond, because it has the USA stamp on it. It was also pointed out that some of these bond groups are the same that gave high ratings to the bad mortgage bundles that crashed our economy not so long ago. So we are not sure who how people view their ratings anyway.

There is some talk of an impeachment trial possibility if the 14th amendment get invoked from Obama. Even if not true, the trial for it before elections would be hard to overcome, and so odds are he will not invoke it.

From what I have read. This is a "fake" crises, being made real by both sides trying to win the 2012 election a year early. Obama is doing all he can to hurt the tea-party and win re-election. The other side is going all they can to make sure this does not happen. Neither side really cares about the country from what I can tell.

I guess we will find out how this all pays out really soon.

To my mind, this is all smoke and mirrors and politics being played harder than anyone has ever seen.

I wish we passed that balanced budget law a few years ago, when we would not be in this mess in the first place.

[vvalkyri]

I'd appreciate the link to whereever you found the stuff about the bond groups wanting 4T in cuts and the other stuff about this being a fake crisis.

Re bond ratings, another reason the bond ratings may fall anyway is because of the demonstrated willingness to play shenanigans with full faith and credit.

Re what happens, can't find anythign about contractors, but re feds, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/federal-eye/post/qanda-default-and-federal-workers/2011/07/27/gIQAGyk4cI_blog.html

Re fake savings, Boehner's plan has 1bn of savings in the first year. http://theweek.com/bullpen/column/217645/do-you-believe-in-magic

Re fake crisis, yes, it is, in a lot of ways. Because unlike the other countries in this world who are out of money, we aren't. Instead, what's going on is forcing a crisis to happen in order to get absolutely everything one side wants.

And don't start with "oh, both sides are intractable" - the dems, fake savings though some may seem to be (though the Ryan plan also counted war savings in its savings) are offering up cuts to important programs and with no tax increases, while the Reps are still saying no.

[vvalkyri]

I’d appreciate links to the stuff you mention re the bond folk wanting a 4T set of cuts and re this being a fake crisis.

Re fake savings from the Reid plan, Boehner’s plan only has 1Bn of actual cuts in the first year (David Frum: http://theweek.com/bullpen/column/217645/do-you-believe-in-magic) and Ryan’s budget used war savings in the same manner as does Reid’s.

In a lot of ways, yes, this is a fake crisis. We’re not out of money in anywhere near the same way that Greece, Italy, Iceland, etc. are. We’ve got one side forcing us down this path in order to get everything they want with no concessions. And unfortunately the other side has already done the negotiating with hostage takers (vidi gov’t shutdown threat, take away 2million people’s unemployment at Christmas threat) so they’re going to keep with it.

Don’t try to start the “both sides are intractable” thing - funny numbers or no, the dems have pretty much capitulated on doing a lot of damage to some very important programs, and without any tax increase, even closing loopholes, in exchange. And still the Reps say ‘no.’ I own GE stock, and that company paid no tax last year. Why is this appropriate to threaten the world economy over?

The Dems have failed miserably at strategy, leadership, and backbone, but they're not holding the world economy hostage for the sake of political gain. And that’s how I see starting with “we will not compromise” and rejecting a larger package of cuts (what they say they want) in favor of forcing the whole circus over again before even a year’s gone by.

[he_who_wanders]

Please cite your debt ceiling links - I have not read any credible economic writings that suggest what you are saying.

Do we have to control spending yes of course. But if we don't
pay our interest then not only will we almost certainly be downgraded. In addition the uncertainty impact on the market
could be devastating. Finally this could drive the dollar out
of its position as the reserve currency.

[vvalkyri]

Argh. I had written a long response, then went to go find a link, then moved off the page, and the lj-reply in email doesn't save itself.

Anyway, I was pretty surprised to start hearing about the "downgrade regardless" on NPR yesterday or today; here's an excerpt Even if Congress manages to cobble together something that defers default for several months, the credit rating agencies might still decide that isn't enough. Without a longer-term plan to reduce the underlying deficit, those private agencies could choose to downgrade U.S. debt. Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings have all issued warnings that they may downgrade the U.S. government's current triple-A credit rating.

"If you have a second-rate credit rating, it means in the eyes of the world you're a second-rate country," said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at Third Way, a progressive advocacy group.

But the president of Standard & Poor's told a congressional panel Wednesday that previous reports that $4 trillion in deficit cuts would be needed over a decade for the U.S. to retain a top bond rating were inaccurate.

http://www.npr.org/2011/07/27/138746752/no-progress-as-u-s-debt-default-looms-closer

I suspect that up until this nonesnse started going down the the wire the ratings agencies couldn't conceive of ever downgrading the US Bond rating. But then once that was no longer unthinkable all bets were off, as now they're actually looking.

I'm reminded of a conversation Dad had with a friend of his this morning, who had done something not particularly clever - after a lady backed into his parked car they called the police to come as witness to positioning and such. The nice policeman ticketed him $160 for his registration and her $400 for various and sundry. They protested: "hey, neither of us has any money -- we called you as witness!" "I'm just doing my job."

[shadeofnight]

I could not find all of them. But I remembered this one:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/60193.html

Just things I read off and on "on break" at work.