Пиздец

[vityokr]

CDS Market is BROKEN. We have never seen anything like it. Imagine a 5,000 drop in the DOW.

5y levels                                               Probability of Default in next 5 years
Russia      @ 600 wider by 300                    33%
Sberbank  @ 900                425                     45%
Turkey        @ 600                200                    33%
VTB            1350                   500                    60%
Ukraine     2000                   1000                  75%

My favorite Kazakhstan - has not outstanding debt to default on - 5yr trading at 1350 or 600 wider.

To put things in perspective, last summer Russia was trading at 45, Kazakhstan at 40, Sberbank at 40 and Ukraine at 120. The market is totally broken and has nothing to do with any fundamentals.