Torchwood: Lack of Numeracy Day
Ok, I like Torchwood, both the regular series format and the Children of Earth mini, and I'm looking forward to Torchwood: Miracle Day. However, I'm noticing a distinct lack of... calculation, for lack of a better word, in the promos about it, such as this one:
http://seriable.com/boom-new-torchwood-trailer-is-the-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-4541
“Torchwood: Miracle Day” begins with a day when nobody dies. The result: a population boom, overnight. With all the extra people, resources are finite. It’s said that in four month’s time, the human race will cease to be viable."
So, wait, people stop dying, population boom ensues, too many people for the human race to be ‘viable’ in four months? Let’s check this with a quick BOTE (back of the envelope) calculation.
Per US Census Bureau (but global information, and averages obviously),
Births per day - 363,554
Deaths per day - 154,138
Natural increase per day - 209,416
So, each day that nobody can die, we have around 150k people around who wouldn’t have been otherwise. In four months (120 days), that comes to about 18.5 million ‘extra’ people. Of course, another way of looking at it is that the population is increasing by 363k people instead of 210k each day, so it would only take about another three months to add that many more people anyway. Therefore, even if Miracle Day never happens, presumably the human race stops being viable in seven months instead of four.
Ah, you say, but all these unable to die folks might be taking up more resources than the same number of newborn babies would be. Well, I don’t have any statistics handy on the nutritional needs of newborns vs. those in hospice care or whatever, but consider this - the people who really should be dead, but simply can’t die, by that same token *don’t actually need anything in the way of life-sustaining measures*, now do they? Indeed, some number of them are going to be in such bad shape that it’s not even *possible* to feed them or insert IV lines or what have you.
Now, the supply of pain medications for use as palliative measures for these people, assuming we want to stay humane about the whole thing (and of course, there’s no longer a danger of killing anybody with an overdose), will quickly run short, I’ll grant you that. Depending on whether it’s still possible to fall into an entirely unresponsive coma, although not actually dying, I suppose.
http://seriable.com/boom-new-torchwood-trailer-is-the-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-4541
“Torchwood: Miracle Day” begins with a day when nobody dies. The result: a population boom, overnight. With all the extra people, resources are finite. It’s said that in four month’s time, the human race will cease to be viable."
So, wait, people stop dying, population boom ensues, too many people for the human race to be ‘viable’ in four months? Let’s check this with a quick BOTE (back of the envelope) calculation.
Per US Census Bureau (but global information, and averages obviously),
Births per day - 363,554
Deaths per day - 154,138
Natural increase per day - 209,416
So, each day that nobody can die, we have around 150k people around who wouldn’t have been otherwise. In four months (120 days), that comes to about 18.5 million ‘extra’ people. Of course, another way of looking at it is that the population is increasing by 363k people instead of 210k each day, so it would only take about another three months to add that many more people anyway. Therefore, even if Miracle Day never happens, presumably the human race stops being viable in seven months instead of four.
Ah, you say, but all these unable to die folks might be taking up more resources than the same number of newborn babies would be. Well, I don’t have any statistics handy on the nutritional needs of newborns vs. those in hospice care or whatever, but consider this - the people who really should be dead, but simply can’t die, by that same token *don’t actually need anything in the way of life-sustaining measures*, now do they? Indeed, some number of them are going to be in such bad shape that it’s not even *possible* to feed them or insert IV lines or what have you.
Now, the supply of pain medications for use as palliative measures for these people, assuming we want to stay humane about the whole thing (and of course, there’s no longer a danger of killing anybody with an overdose), will quickly run short, I’ll grant you that. Depending on whether it’s still possible to fall into an entirely unresponsive coma, although not actually dying, I suppose.