Base Case
Just as a note for my future self, my expectation for the coming year is that:
- there will be no peace in Ukraine in 20204
- Trump will be elected as President in 2024, but his presence on the ticket will boost Democrats in other races
- Democrats will take the house of Representatives in 2024
- Republicans will take the Senate (52/48?) in 2024 as the map favours heavily them
In short US politicis will be like 2018-2020 (to a first approximation). Awful, but less bad than 2016-18.