Or it could all go horribly wrong.
I was just talking to KG, who asked for my blog address. I told him he wouldn't be interested because it's turned into a desolate backwater for me to extemporise upon the political system of a country I've never lived in and probably never will.
Would anyone who reads this blog be surprised to know I seriously considered American Studies rather than English Literature for my BA?
Anyway, I'm writing now on the 4th of November. IT IS ELECTION DAY. The fucking behemoth has lumbered its way over the stony mountain, and has finally sat down to tea. Thank goodness. It only took two years! Soon my life will be back to normal. I have, for months upon months, looked at polls every day, read American blogs and American newspapers for every scrap of information as to how it was going to go, searching for fuel for my anger or inspiration. I've speculated within myself as I walk to work, and speculated out loud to friends (who have held differing levels of interest) about every aspect - who will be the Vice Presidential nominees, which states will eventually be in play, et cetera. Every twist and every turn has seemed of monumental, game-changing importance - and today, the final turn will be taken. The big one. The actual fucking election. It's like a life, which proceeds by minor horrors and miracles day by day, each of which seems monumental, until the final horror itself, the reality of the end.
So the election has to happen. And then the litigation, if there is any. And then the constructive work of building a presidency will have to take place. These things, presidential administrations, are huge organisations, and are generally built up over a matter of months, and destroyed piece by piece over a matter of years. Obama or McCain will have to choose a chief of staff, and then begin creating a cabinet. The cabinet will then have to be filled with sub-cabinet appointees. The process of building relationships with foreign leaders will have to take place. It will be a hectic time - important, but less thrilling, than what is about to happen today.
What's going to happen today? Well, for me, I'm going to go to work, make some phone calls, do some casework, then go on over to Andy's... oh, you mean in America. Heavens to murgatroyd, yes. Lots of things will happen today. Over a hundred million people will vote, for one thing, if they haven't already voted. They will encounter huge, punishing queues. A majority of them will most likely vote for Barack Obama - his last average was 52% to McCain's 44%. It is unlikely that McCain will be able to make that up.
But then, as the 2000 election (and indeed the 1876 election) shows, the winner of the popular vote doesn't win the election. Because that would be far too sensible. The winner of the Presidential election is the first candidate to gain 270 electoral votes. Put simply, it is easier for Obama to do that than McCain.
Say you're starting from the position we were in after the 2004 election. Kerry had 252 electoral votes; Bush had 286, which is why Bush won the election. Since then, things have changed, and all in the wrong direction for the Republicans. Obama has 'inherited' all 252 electoral votes that Kerry earned - the only ones in doubt are in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, a combined total of 25 votes. However, when I say 'in doubt' - Obama has been at least seven points ahead in these two for *weeks*. Moreover, Obama has increased his leads in states that Kerry held by a whisker. Obama is further ahead in Penn and NH now than Kerry was.
Since 2004, the Republicans' popularity has declined so that now three states Bush won that year - Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa - have moved firmly into Obama's column according to all the polls since about September. This gives him a total of 21 extra electoral college votes, bringing his total up to 273: ie, over the finish line. So the rest is about two things: a) insurance policies in case anything happens to Penn, NH, or one of these three states, and b) building a mandate for the Obama administration. Obama would like to win in all areas of the country - in the North East, in the South, in the Midwest, in the Rocky Mountains and in the West. (Perhaps not in Alaska.) There are 'in play' states in all these regions. He will also be wanting to bring a large number of Democratic Senators and Congresspeople along with him.
So the worst-case scenario for Obama is, of course, to lose. Duh. He would do this by losing hold of Pennsylvania or New Hampshire and failing to win any of the other swing states. I do not think this will happen.
The second worst-case scenario for Obama is to win narrowly - the '273' scenario I described above.
The best-case scenario is for Obama to win resoundingly. It is just possible that Obama could win 406 - 132, if he were to win *every* single 'toss-up' state: because of the direness of the Republican campaign, 'toss-up states' now include places like Arizona, North Dakota and Montana. But I think in the end, McCain will just about win these. It will be like having all your clothes removed by a passing roadrunner, but still being left a teatowel to hide your shame.
What is more likely to happen is that Obama will win all the Kerry states plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Montana or North Dakota, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Florida. McCain will win all the Bush States minus these. So that would leave the election Obama 341 - McCain 197.
And then it's a question of exactly what concoction of drinks I mix together to celebrate.
Or it could all go horribly wrong.
Would anyone who reads this blog be surprised to know I seriously considered American Studies rather than English Literature for my BA?
Anyway, I'm writing now on the 4th of November. IT IS ELECTION DAY. The fucking behemoth has lumbered its way over the stony mountain, and has finally sat down to tea. Thank goodness. It only took two years! Soon my life will be back to normal. I have, for months upon months, looked at polls every day, read American blogs and American newspapers for every scrap of information as to how it was going to go, searching for fuel for my anger or inspiration. I've speculated within myself as I walk to work, and speculated out loud to friends (who have held differing levels of interest) about every aspect - who will be the Vice Presidential nominees, which states will eventually be in play, et cetera. Every twist and every turn has seemed of monumental, game-changing importance - and today, the final turn will be taken. The big one. The actual fucking election. It's like a life, which proceeds by minor horrors and miracles day by day, each of which seems monumental, until the final horror itself, the reality of the end.
So the election has to happen. And then the litigation, if there is any. And then the constructive work of building a presidency will have to take place. These things, presidential administrations, are huge organisations, and are generally built up over a matter of months, and destroyed piece by piece over a matter of years. Obama or McCain will have to choose a chief of staff, and then begin creating a cabinet. The cabinet will then have to be filled with sub-cabinet appointees. The process of building relationships with foreign leaders will have to take place. It will be a hectic time - important, but less thrilling, than what is about to happen today.
What's going to happen today? Well, for me, I'm going to go to work, make some phone calls, do some casework, then go on over to Andy's... oh, you mean in America. Heavens to murgatroyd, yes. Lots of things will happen today. Over a hundred million people will vote, for one thing, if they haven't already voted. They will encounter huge, punishing queues. A majority of them will most likely vote for Barack Obama - his last average was 52% to McCain's 44%. It is unlikely that McCain will be able to make that up.
But then, as the 2000 election (and indeed the 1876 election) shows, the winner of the popular vote doesn't win the election. Because that would be far too sensible. The winner of the Presidential election is the first candidate to gain 270 electoral votes. Put simply, it is easier for Obama to do that than McCain.
Say you're starting from the position we were in after the 2004 election. Kerry had 252 electoral votes; Bush had 286, which is why Bush won the election. Since then, things have changed, and all in the wrong direction for the Republicans. Obama has 'inherited' all 252 electoral votes that Kerry earned - the only ones in doubt are in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, a combined total of 25 votes. However, when I say 'in doubt' - Obama has been at least seven points ahead in these two for *weeks*. Moreover, Obama has increased his leads in states that Kerry held by a whisker. Obama is further ahead in Penn and NH now than Kerry was.
Since 2004, the Republicans' popularity has declined so that now three states Bush won that year - Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa - have moved firmly into Obama's column according to all the polls since about September. This gives him a total of 21 extra electoral college votes, bringing his total up to 273: ie, over the finish line. So the rest is about two things: a) insurance policies in case anything happens to Penn, NH, or one of these three states, and b) building a mandate for the Obama administration. Obama would like to win in all areas of the country - in the North East, in the South, in the Midwest, in the Rocky Mountains and in the West. (Perhaps not in Alaska.) There are 'in play' states in all these regions. He will also be wanting to bring a large number of Democratic Senators and Congresspeople along with him.
So the worst-case scenario for Obama is, of course, to lose. Duh. He would do this by losing hold of Pennsylvania or New Hampshire and failing to win any of the other swing states. I do not think this will happen.
The second worst-case scenario for Obama is to win narrowly - the '273' scenario I described above.
The best-case scenario is for Obama to win resoundingly. It is just possible that Obama could win 406 - 132, if he were to win *every* single 'toss-up' state: because of the direness of the Republican campaign, 'toss-up states' now include places like Arizona, North Dakota and Montana. But I think in the end, McCain will just about win these. It will be like having all your clothes removed by a passing roadrunner, but still being left a teatowel to hide your shame.
What is more likely to happen is that Obama will win all the Kerry states plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Montana or North Dakota, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Florida. McCain will win all the Bush States minus these. So that would leave the election Obama 341 - McCain 197.
And then it's a question of exactly what concoction of drinks I mix together to celebrate.
Or it could all go horribly wrong.