Analyzing the World Cup like I do basketball
Horribly. But anyway.
I don't have a bracket for this. Unlike Basketball, they are rarer, not to mention involve a sport with inherently high leverage that if my life depended upon a bet in the sport I would consider pulling the trigger myself and save everyone some time. I saw a clean streak on ESPN's Streak for the Cash once made up mostly of soccer goal win margins and reported the man immediately for suspicion of cheating - which, in the medium of soccer, is likely match fixing. What I can do is discuss bid distribution, which is fixed by FIFA early in the World Cup cycle based on evaluation of the various federations that comprise its membership. This is in fact more accurate than what I usually am able to do for college basketball, as each team (and, thus, each conference sending at least one member - sorry, Oceania) is guaranteed a minimum of three games.
Without further ado, then, in win-draw-loss format:
- UEFA: 18-7-14, six teams advancing, but not really all of them you'd expect. Greece literally stole a spot, while in other brackets perennial favorites Spain, Portugal, Italy, and England left the tournament in the worst and most hilarious fashion possible. Netherlands and Germany are still Netherlands and Germany, however, and France is now getting along with itself and wrecking everyone else.
- CONCACAF: 5-3-4, three teams advancing, and it's simply glorious. Mexico had Brazil to fend off, Costa Rica had Italy, England, and Uruguay, and the US had Germany, RonaldolandPortugal, and Ghana just for laughs. All three advance. (Pity Honduras lost three straight.) The round of 16 should be nice to them (at least in comparison), and that would be enough for a winning record that normally does not come to them.
- CONMEBOL: 13-2-3, five teams advancing. Home-court advantage largely unnecessary, but appreciated (sole exception may be Brazil, the true host country, who expect to top their group a lot easier). Only team not advancing is Ecuador, who found two of the four powerful UEFA clubs in their group along with everybody's free three points in Honduras and couldn't get more than a tie with France outside of that. Two teams, Colombia and Argentina, are so far undefeated. Only sad part is that, of the five remaining, four play each other next round.
- CAF: 2-2-8, Nigeria alone advancing, and even they aren't necessarily happy about their performance. Still, the CAF matches showed effort more often than not. Ivory Coast's loss to Greece was sheer heartbreak.
- AFC: 1-3-8, Algeria alone advancing, and that was because the rest of their group fell asleep. Japan and South Korea, in particular, stunk up the joint with scared, pointless play. Their best, most daring athletes are in arcades. Iran fought bravely at least, if in the manner of Crystal Palace without quite the quality. Spain saved David Villa just for Australia, which was stupid overall *and* a horrible thing to do to a team after facing Chile and the Netherlands.
From this point, we end up with bracket matchups. In reverse order of interest:
- Costa Rica vs. Greece: Please remove Greece from this tournament WITH EXTREME PREJUDICE AND ANGER.
- Germany vs. Algeria: Algeria gonna die.
- France vs. Nigeria: Normally a better match but one team is playing much better than normal and the other is playing worse than normal.
- Colombia vs. Uruguay: CONMEBOL rivalry match, but without Suarez until he learns to keep his mouth shut.
- Argentina vs. Switzerland: We play the winner, and if France can find five goals Lionel Messi's going to have himself a showcase.
- Belgium vs. USA: Because obviously, and it'll be nice to go into a match liking our chances of winning.
- Brazil vs. Chile: Upstart Chile vs. the country of Brazil. This gonna be gooooooood.
- Netherlands vs. Mexico: Robin Van Persie vs. Guillermo Ochoa, with a tiny ball trapped in between. DO WANT.
Are you ready? I'm not, but the fun cranks to eleven come Saturday at any rate.