Долой топологию!
Есть такая штука, как Benford's Law.
На ней в свое время фальсификаторы официальной статистики в Греции перед Евросовком попалились
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2015/07/09/greece-financial-crisis-data-science-could-have-exposed-warning-signs/?sh=5b578b046066
А теперь Бидон палится!
https://github.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords
Benford's Law, also called the Newcomb-Benford law, the law of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. The law states that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the leading digit is likely to be small. For example, in sets that obey the law, the number 1 appears as the leading significant digit about 30% of the time, while 9 appears as the leading significant digit less than 5% of the time. If the digits were distributed uniformly, they would each occur about 11.1% of the time. Benford's law also makes predictions about the distribution of second digits, third digits, digit combinations, and so on.
Plots of the first digits of counts in various precincts and wards for selected counties/cities.
Больше числоблядования и прочего расизма
https://twitter.com/statsguyphd
УПД: Оказывается, не только закон Бенфорда нарушен:
Hey /pol/, I know you all are paying a lot of attention to the first digit/Benford's Law in an attempt to prove election fraud, but there's another method to detect election fraud, as well, and the findings are just as striking.
NYU describes this method to detect election fraud by checking the last digit of results and using the Chi-squared goodness of fit test to confirm that they fit the expected uniform distribution. You can find their paper on it here: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/what-the-numbers-say-a-digitbased-test-for-election-fraud/AD86EEBC2F199E2C8A2FD36BD3799DF9
I developed a Python script to perform this same analysis, given a text file containing vote totals (by county) on each line. You can find it here: https://pastebin.com/WigALtnj
After scraping the county-level data from POLITICO and state results sites, I ran it through this analysis, and things definitely look sketchy in the swing states. The test gives a P-value of around 0.05 for MI, WI, and GA, far lower than the results in other, less-sus states such as Texas. This seems indicative of possible fraud.