Eve of the War (of Songs)
Ok I will flesh out the half completed posts on the ESC but I just wanted to get his one off before the ESC Grand Final. [comments in square brackets were made post the final as results came out - I ran out of time to do proper predictions for Poland, Serbia and Estonia as I'd realised this took longer than anticipated and the final had started].
The fallen: for the first time I watched the semis this year (and followed the contest from the start from the clips of the National Final contestants - can't remember most of them but I liked Hammer of Thor and Dance like a Pink Flamingo from the Norweigan one and 'I Suck at Being Lonely' from the Australian one) and it was interesting.
Semi 1:
Albania - I didn't mind this one and actually thought it would go through until I saw it live. Yup totally hot mess including vocals - I don't mind that they went for sexy but it sacrificed the ethnic feel and it just ended up looking tacky. I knew it was DOA from then on. It's a shame they did something new but went too far away from what they do well and I hope they don't give up and just keep sending the same old ballads - they're good and have a niche but it'll be nice to see something different just don't change it at the last minute and you know countries hire experienced stagers for a reason.
Lativa - Probably a victim of the juries, I was sad for them (and especially since it's the now fifth contest on the bounce the country haven't made the final) and for the dearth of much needed craziness and upbeat songs in the final. I know this was marmite and certainly not the classest entry but it was fun and the guys were apparently visably upset (and needing hugs from their much luckier neighbouring country's contestant) after they didn't make the cut. [actually they only narrowly missed with the juries 11th and their televote was really low about sort of middle of the NQ zone. I guess people finding them too jokey and/or crude and the fun songs crowd going for Moldova or/and Norway probably really hurt them here and performing second kinda nerfed them too]
Slovenia - the disco kids did alright but this was always an outside bet, it's an interesting song with a different flavour (boo to the ESC United guys who hated it and compared it's qualification to get the limp salad from a great buffet) but I guess a bit lacklustre and the disco ball being a bit basic and not sparkly enough did for them. A loss to the final but a not unsurprising one. They're young and may well be back with something more competitive in a few years time. [really hard to find out that they were bottom - I'd say a travesty actually they deserved better than Albania, Austria and Bulgaria at least but boy are the first too not popular opinions - some people will excuse any old mess if to support their beloved bops]
Bulgaria - another non shocker NQ, staging elevated it but as they say here in the UK there's only so much you can polish a turd, this just wasn't good enough in terms of the song, we know you can do better as a country.
Croatia - I liked this especially live but while pleasant it just wasn't wow enough to make it, I liked the dancers but it appeared I was in a minority. [maybe not that much since as in last year they only just missed out although I don't think they were in either set of votes top ten individually unlike last year where they were in both].
Denmark - I think this one was a long shot too. The performance was fun to watch but I think it's the problem with a lot of upbeat songs this year - they don't have the professionalism and the musical quality of the ballads, especially the rock songs - Maneskin and Blind Channel made rocking out to the right standard look easy last year - this and Bulgara show it ain't. Still at least Denmark tried something different - I hope they keep trying.
Austria - I'm the weird kid in that I never liked the studio cut of this much but enjoyed it much more on the night, probably because as New Wave/Post Punk kid I prefer things a bit more rough round the edges but rough it was...especially the vocals. The audience seemed to enjoy it but I can't imagine that the juries did. This is why the top performing countries are often the ones with National Finals - you get to road test something to see if it works live (and the singer can actually deliver it live) and if it doesn't then it'll get weeded out for something that will. [Predictably the public would have put them through but the juries vetoed it. I think the juries were right in this case it shouldn't have got through].
Interval acts - the dance fan Noosh really loved the DJs section - I'm not a trad clubber but it was good enough to entertain me. Like most folks what I've loved most was the guy who would have represented Italy in 2020 finally getting his go on the stage. He was great, the staging did it justice and the crowd singing along with him was a moment. One of a series of proper goose bump moments that almost made me cry of the evening.
Semi 2 - for the first time I actually voted in an ESC semi - the results were....mixed
We were off to a much worse start this time with a bit of a cringy comedy routine with one of the hosts (although the host is great - he seems like a cool guy) and then....
Israel - I found this entertaining but it was bit too camp to really tempt me to vote, people said it was probably going to be Israel's first NQ since Golden Boy in the Vienna 2015 contest reversed their fortunes and it was. Debate rages over the song was good enough for it to be a travesty and how much the guy's attention hoing behaviour nerfed him but although I didn't hate it I didn't feel it was a travesty it didn't get through unlike...
Georgia - this one hurt to lose, like Latvia the Georgians haven't appeared in final since 2016, like the Latvians I feel they would have added some much needed colour and leviaty to the final, plus some seriously arty and fabulously weird staging - think Victorian steam punk meets Tim Burton, 'twas probably a pipe dream this was ever going to do it but it's one I enjoyed and a real disapointment it ended for me, however I can appreciate mileage will vary radically on this one but I voted twice or thrice for it - in vain but I had to try. [As with Slovenia except even more so, I was gutted to find out that this is stone dead last in the final - sigh, more people voted for the Maltese generic pablem]
Malta - on the other hand I could not be more relieved didn't make it, calling it vanilla is an insult ...to vanilla which I actually quite like, they say that camels are like animals designed by committees but I think camels are cool and the only thing this has in common with them - apart from smacking of being workshopped - is it gave me the hump, bland souless trite nonsense even the singer wasn't nailing and maybe it's because not even she was feeling it. Apparently she's normally great but this song light years away from it.
San Marino - well this was an experience. I'm glad we got to see this - but maybe once was enough. I actually chucked it a vote. It's perhaps for the best I didn't prevail but I still think perhaps a nice thank you to Senor Laro and co for entertaining the eff out of me for three minutes. Crazy entry fans missed out here.
Cyprus - this was heartbreaking to watch, like Albania they tried something different and completely effed up staging it. The studio version was lovely with a video that completely captured the summery essense of the track but the staging was kinda crass and Andromache messed up the vocals and lost that essense, so sad. I really hope this doesn't discourage them and lead them back to sending pale Fuego clones again. [the televoters would have put it through - I'm not sure how I feel about that - I guess it might have given Andromache another chance to nail the vocals but much as it's hurts to type it I'm not sure that Azerbajan or something else better performed like North Macedonia who nearly got there didn't deserve the slot more].
North Macedonia and Montenegro - I feel I can lump these two together in that both are terrific vocalists who deserved better material to work with and show that there's a difference in the budgets and importance attached to certain countries over others in the not great staging of these. North Macedonia had a song that didn't really go anywhere either perhaps considering it's called Circles that's kinda appropriate but it didn't help them. Montenegro quit and then came back for this year - I'd be sad but not surprised if they quit for good after this especially since it was such a personal song for the singer and you can tell that as she gave it everything in the performance.
Ireland - it never seems to come together for Ireland apart from in 2018. This is the one that had the fans splitting blood in this semi and I can see why, Brooke was great, the staging was simple but effective (they learnt from complex staging sabotaging their singer last year), the song is a blast and would have really added something to the final. Again like with Slovenia, Brooke's very young and has probably gained a lot in experience, good will and contacts and I hope she can utilise them in the future. She certainly won't have to dive deep into soc media to know that many felt she was robbed. I chucked her a couple of votes so I tried man. [I think this is the disadvantage of being the British Isles buble - it would seem outside of it no one else was really that enamoured of this - still at least Brooke watching the final in the Irish pub in Turin along with Andrea from North Macedonia shows she wasn't that gutted which is cool].
Our Runners and Riders:
Czech Republic - this was pretty good in the semi and will be a good opener - prediction hmmm...I think around the middle of the board (top right or lower left), probably reasonable scores in both votes although more with televotes. [it was a bit worse and they were I think in the bottom 6 turns out that going first and just before Romania along with possibly some dodgy vocals nerfed them - a shame but they can be proud that they got their country to the final]
Romania - this is just such fun and this year they learnt from the last and sent a born performer with a latin mellow bop song and lots of dancers and staged it well, probably narrowly Qed on the televote so between that and spot of death won't do amazingly but won't be last - still the Q in itself is a result for them. [middlish of the right side - so this was about right]
Portugal - I'm a bit annoyed that this wasn't switched with Switzerland as this deserved a better slot to get televoters on side, it deserves more attention, very moving and beautiful, she's lovely and her charisma really comes across but likely to get lost in the shuffle for televoters amongst a lot of other slow songs, I would say juries will put it higher but there's lots of jury bait here but then last year they did well with juries, I think lower middle for them (top to middle right). [vastly underestimated the jury appeal with this one but was happy to be proved wrong as they earnt much a deserved 9th place]
Finland - fame alone of the Rasmus should assure a reasonable televote, it's alright and a nice pick me up for all the slow and mellow to come which will make it stand out, cringing lyrics at times, I think lower middle again - mostly on the strength of the televote. [I think more or less right here - except it was a bit lower than expected and was more mid right - televote was lower than expected}
Switzerland - it's nice - nice John Lewis Crimbo ad song, nice singing, nice performance, nice staging. I'd argue it deserved its spot but it was probably a borderline Q shoehorned in by juries while the televote went big for other things. It's fine and will be enjoyed by those it doesn't send to sleep but I won't vote for it nor will I suspect will most people under 60 and it's got bottom 6 written all over it. [Again very high jury saved it from that and elevated to 17th. The juries sure liked their ballad bros this year and literally couldn't get enough of them it seems. The televoters unsurprisingly and less unpredictably not so much. I'm not sure if I saw a zero televote coming but I knew it wouldn't be high]
France - this will wake anyone who nodded off during the Swiss song up and send its fans in the direction of the kitchen to make tea to escape it, probably the hardest to predict in terms of result, I'm interested to see it staged - I think bottom of the left of the board - pretty good televote score as it will stand out, less good jury score but not a disaster, might chuck it a vote if performance impresses, probably will [it didn't especially after hubbie called it borderline unlistenable, like many I did not expect a flop though in both sides of the vote too, I guess that the fandom likes electronic stuff in obscure languages more than the juries and the general televoting public - I suppose it just didn't come together enough to convince the average viewer and just came across as noise and chaos and not in the fun Moldovan sense].
Norway - as seen on Tick Tock, this is going to get a huge televote score - probably one of the top five of the night, it's pretty epic and one of the few uptempto and fun songs but can't see the juries going big for it although they won't completely ignore it, I think middle - probably low left side, maybe low top ten. [wasn't that far off with tenth]
Armenia - I like this but it's a bit neither fish or flesh when it comes to the vote - it's not a massive crowd pleaser that will send people reaching for the phones nor a vocal powerhouse or original blending of ethnic and contemporary that will have the juries showering it with points, the staging's an example of a good idea executed well which may bring some public love and will help it be memorable and it does have a unique sound and a catchy chrous, idk - I think middling result - probably upper right hand side of board. [it was actually in the bottom six just about in 20th]
Italy - ah the first host entry probably since Sweden certainly since Denmark 2001 (that one came second) to even be considered as a candidate for the win. Will it? probably not but it won't miss by much, I can see votes pouring in from both sets of voters here, probably getting a vote from me, this is lovely and Mahmood of course known and loved already as this isn't his first ESC rodeo, top ten - probably upper half, maybe even third. It certainly will not be last or get a big fat zero in either vote which already puts ahead of its the last three. [sixth - so not that far off - performance was worse than expected which nerfed it although only slightly].
Spain - the first of the zero to hero big 5 entries - I don't like this, massive style over substance IMO but I'm not under the illusion that the world shares my taste and with a derth of party songs and a good slot it's hand is pretty strong. Will get one of the biggest televotes of the night and jury is a bit more questionable, all of tv execs on the juries will love it but I don't see the music pros voting for it over the several vocal powerhouses, Chanel can hold a tune (and do it while jiggling which impresses some and yup it is impressive -I just don't think the song is) but even her most deluded fans - hopefully - aren't gonna argue she's the biggest vocal powerhouse of the night, I can see some seeing it as a bit tacky and prefering the more critically acclaimed and more emotional, complex structured and more original songs of the night but it won't flop with them. Prediction is hard - but I think the ESC community always overates bops and their chances so, perhaps unwisely and aided by wishful thinking, I don't see a win but I'd be surprised if it's not in the top ten - I think lower rather than upper half but top five wouldn't be a shock. [I think my dislke of it did hamper the prediction especially with the juries but not too badly I wasn't shocked at third especially in the televote although maybe a tad more with the juries I guess they appreciated the slick performance - I'm a bit miffed it did better than Fuego did with them as Fuego was a much better song IMO but I guess 2018 was a much better year and Sweden nabbed the slick performance there that year]
Netherlands - sigh, I love this but I think it coming between the countries it will in the running order and a glut of slow, emotional songs hasn't helped this at all. I still don't see it being a flop especially with the juries but it might struggle for televotes. Bulgaria last year got 11th and was 6th with juries and very low with televoters - I think this will do a bit better with them due to there being even sleeper songs that aren't anywhere near as distictive but I see a very similar final position. [I think I nailed this one - as it was in fact 11th technically worse than Victoria as didn't miss out on the top ten by a tie break but S10's televote was a bit higher in terms of points - she got twenty two more than Victoria last year - as with her performing position it should have been 10th just for meme value]
Ukraine - and here comes the elephant in the room. Will it win and will it do it on merit alone? - Probably and kinda I think. Look in the immortal words of Skin 'yes it's effing political, everything is political' and whilst there are times where it is more possible than others then politics are going to enter into any considerations - yes Israel won in 2018 but it wasn't being quite so bad as it is now and it's probably not an accident that Eden Alen didn't do so great in the televote for them last year. The televote will be huge but then again it was pre-war for Shum last year and there are ethnic elements mixed with contemporary ones in common with both entries (Shum had EDM, Stefania has rap) - they even the same bloke playing a trad woodwind instrument, it's a different instrument but here we are. Opinions and mileage as ever will vary but I loved Stefania from the moment I heard it in a selection of songs for the Ukranian national final and was disapointed when it wasn't originally selected as were the Ukraninan people who voted it their winner (the original winner was boosted by the jury). It's a good song, it's well performed and well staged. Are politics going to enter into it with the juries? - some - I can't see the ones in Eastern Europe or the Baltic States (and maybe even the Nordic countries) not giving it big scores but then again the latter would have gone big for it anyway (listen to Stefania and the Moldovan entry back to back and you will start to see sonic similarities) due to shared cultural elements. I think western and latin countries might be a bit more reticent and I don't think it will be the jury winner. I think it will win but even if it doesn't then it will certainly be top three. If it does win it doesn't invalidate the contest - as I think Stefania would still have done well even without the political crisis. [is there anyone who foresaw THAT high a televote? probably not - well done them, Slava Ukrani]
Germany - oh dear! From the probably winner to the probably loser. Poor Malik - he's a nice guy, he's talented and the song's not bad and has a poignant message but whilst the singing and performance are much better than those of Embers last year I think he's likely to do about as well as that song did. Some jury marks will spare him from total wipeout but I can't see much public love coming his way and I think that it's not just a likely if not the most likely last placer but I see a German hat trick of zero televote scores from consequentive contests as a real possibility. [Yup - nailed that but predicted the wrong half they'd get the zero points in, ironic isn't it? Jendrik which you'd peg as a televote song got jury points but no televote score whereas this which I felt would get jury points but zero televote did the exact opposite - I'm just glad that the poor guy didn't do a Newman and get zilch from both].
Lithunina - this one's a real wildcard or dark horse. It's low key but it doesn't sound like anything else, it's simply staged but Monica is really charismatic and holds your attention, it's position isn't great but it comes after Germany which helps it stick out and doesn't draw focus away from it. I think it's a song people either love or find annoying or boring. I think it's going to be about mid-table in both results and overall but mid right board is a possibility. [yup nailed that one as it got 14th overall but although jury slightly lower, televote slightly higher]
Azerbajan - like Switzerland I think this one was a borderline Q and a jury one, the Azeris benefit from a Turkish dispora so it will get some points from the televote but if a distinctive bop like Mata Hari last year sung by a singer in a rumoured showmance with another contestant didn't get much love from them then this won't either and the juries have a lot of other options to draw their attention. He's a good singer but although the song isn't completely boring or generic but for me it's easily the weakest of the ones that qualified from semi-final 2. I didn't think he'd make it and I'd rather he hadn't to be honest as he just feels like the one ballad dude too many. I think the hosts know that too and which is why he's got this rather dead spot rather than being on later in the battle of the balladeers. I don't see a single scenario where this doesn't end up in the bottom 6. It might end up cliching the wooden spoon from the Germans. [vastly underestimated jury score here - still suspicious of that especially after finding it got nothing from the televote in semi 2 - hmmm did the Azeris do even more jury rigging than they got caught out for? that said the world's most famous transphobe thought it was the best thing since sliced bread and she doesn't need the money so maybe it just appeals to music nerds and middle aged to old boring people - I'm middle aged but too rock orientated to be boring, at least musically - big time]
Belgium - yeah this was the other contraversal semi 2 qualifier and probably a borderline and jury darling one. Idk with this - I think like this country last year which qualified under very similar conditions with very similar backlash - I see a reasonable jury score and a shockingly low televote one. However it is in more of a niche than both Switzerland and Azerbajan so it might do ok with western televoters and the Aussies but it's a low midtable result at best and very likely upper end of the bottom six. I don't see this getting to the left of the board. I don't mind it but it's not getting a vote to save it from its fate from me. [ironically I was absolutely right and apart from it turns out Qing with both sets of results in the semi it pretty much followed the trajectory of The Wrong Place to the letter - reasonable jury score, crappy single figure televote score and 19th overal].
Greece - I think this might not do as less as the uber fans think as it doesn't necessarily stand out after Belgium but it should still get the left of board, high jury score likely and televote less predictable but I think it should be reasonable at least (I don't think it's just Cyprus with its ineviatable 12pts - never change guys, never change - that guarantees it won't be really low). I think similar to last year's result - low top ten. [yup - nailed that 8th and not on a tie break so slightly better]
Iceland - a surprise qualifier, like Greece - lovely but low key performance. I think reasonable jury mark but low televote - the latter especially probably mostly from fellow Nordics. I can't see eastern europeans, balkan or latin countries televoters giving a tiny rat's bum about this. This won't get to the left side - middle to low right, maybe even bottom 6. I like it but it was a result that it got here. [jury score was worse than I thought it would be and pretty poor too landing them in the bottom 3 before the televote even started - although I did say maybe bottom 6 overall so I can't say this result was a shock overall].
Moldova - and this is where the televotes will go or at least a fair amount of them especially in eastern europe, everything helps this do brilliantly there, the line of slow jury bait songs while really make this stand out to the televoters, juries....not so much - most likely to leap up the board the most when the televotes pour in and likely to be very very low on the board to begin with once the juries have voted, probably finishing mid table overall - low left or high right so the same as last year. I like it and I think it's badly needed but I won't be gutted with that. I promised a friend I'd vote for it. [I underestimated the televote here - saw it as good but second was a bit of a surprise so was a bit out with that as they were 7th - was right about shooting up the board though just underestimated the scale]
Sweden - and this what will sink their jury mark, this will do very well with them but I think the televote will be at least decent too, Cornelia will be top ten (I'll be shocked if she's not) it's just a question of where, I'm feeling the middle but could be wrong. [slightly wrong but not by much 4th is sort of the middle]
Australia - and the power dude trilogy begins! Jury marks will be high but televote is going to be interesting - he won't be disgraced in it but it might not be huge, this feels like a jury song and Australia tend to be a jury country, hmm - I think this is left of the board but either just out of or just inside the top ten. [vastly overestimated their televote - as you can see I didn't expect a flop there - I guess being between Cornelia and Sam really did him in - poor guy poured his heart out and the public said whatever dude! I wonder if the Aussie jury giving us no points is because they kinda knew that on some level]
UK - Once bitten, twice shy - I really feel I'm tempting fate and raising expectations to be dashed but the more I look at this I really can't see this being anything else other than the year we finally make it onto the left side of the board, also a dare to hope for the top ten is feeling more like a question of where as with Sweden - I'm not feeling brave enough to dare to think we'll top them so I'm going for lower half - I'm feeling about 7 or 8 maybe even 9 but yeah it feels like a freaking miracle that I'm even daring to think that. [edit - I realised I was missing the contest - as you can see I really didn't envisage either second place or jury winner as on the cards - eff me gently with a chainsaw!!!]
[I think I thought Poland would do better than 12th and especially that they'd do better with the juries, you'd think that powerful and beautiful voice singing that lovely power ballad would be showered with points. Poor Ochman probably had his thunder stolen by the other ballad dudes being more flamboyant in terms of staging, costuming and personalities - the latter being a factor in the contest in general as a lot of charismatic people this year and it maybe why the delagation went with all those flashy effects which didn't go down well with the juries at least. However I do start to wonder if for some reason the juries just don't love the Polish no matter what - maybe they resent that they get televote points no matter what crap they send - and if that's what motivated them to cheat this year. Still they should be really happy with left of the board - it was pretty competitive . Our televote gave Ochman 10pts, second only to the Ukranians. The Polish benefit from a huge disapora here as in some other places but it was still deserved and it wasn't the whole story behind that as I was a part of that and as far as I know I don't have a drop of Polish blood in me. I probably envisionaged a low top ten position so I'm guessing not that far off
Serbia - I thought she'd do well but top five! Well done Konstrustra - I was a part of that too just a much smaller one since we gave Serbia a point in our televote.
Estonia - I guess in general expectations were lower here than with Poland but as with them I thought this would do better. However it did better than many pundits seemed to think it (James at ESC United thought it would be a borderline NQ although he was utterly off base there) would due to staging issues from the malfunctioning sun (which were offset by Stefan's energy and charisma as was the case with Lithunina) and I'm very happy for the country and again was a part of that - I voted for them]
The fallen: for the first time I watched the semis this year (and followed the contest from the start from the clips of the National Final contestants - can't remember most of them but I liked Hammer of Thor and Dance like a Pink Flamingo from the Norweigan one and 'I Suck at Being Lonely' from the Australian one) and it was interesting.
Semi 1:
Albania - I didn't mind this one and actually thought it would go through until I saw it live. Yup totally hot mess including vocals - I don't mind that they went for sexy but it sacrificed the ethnic feel and it just ended up looking tacky. I knew it was DOA from then on. It's a shame they did something new but went too far away from what they do well and I hope they don't give up and just keep sending the same old ballads - they're good and have a niche but it'll be nice to see something different just don't change it at the last minute and you know countries hire experienced stagers for a reason.
Lativa - Probably a victim of the juries, I was sad for them (and especially since it's the now fifth contest on the bounce the country haven't made the final) and for the dearth of much needed craziness and upbeat songs in the final. I know this was marmite and certainly not the classest entry but it was fun and the guys were apparently visably upset (and needing hugs from their much luckier neighbouring country's contestant) after they didn't make the cut. [actually they only narrowly missed with the juries 11th and their televote was really low about sort of middle of the NQ zone. I guess people finding them too jokey and/or crude and the fun songs crowd going for Moldova or/and Norway probably really hurt them here and performing second kinda nerfed them too]
Slovenia - the disco kids did alright but this was always an outside bet, it's an interesting song with a different flavour (boo to the ESC United guys who hated it and compared it's qualification to get the limp salad from a great buffet) but I guess a bit lacklustre and the disco ball being a bit basic and not sparkly enough did for them. A loss to the final but a not unsurprising one. They're young and may well be back with something more competitive in a few years time. [really hard to find out that they were bottom - I'd say a travesty actually they deserved better than Albania, Austria and Bulgaria at least but boy are the first too not popular opinions - some people will excuse any old mess if to support their beloved bops]
Bulgaria - another non shocker NQ, staging elevated it but as they say here in the UK there's only so much you can polish a turd, this just wasn't good enough in terms of the song, we know you can do better as a country.
Croatia - I liked this especially live but while pleasant it just wasn't wow enough to make it, I liked the dancers but it appeared I was in a minority. [maybe not that much since as in last year they only just missed out although I don't think they were in either set of votes top ten individually unlike last year where they were in both].
Denmark - I think this one was a long shot too. The performance was fun to watch but I think it's the problem with a lot of upbeat songs this year - they don't have the professionalism and the musical quality of the ballads, especially the rock songs - Maneskin and Blind Channel made rocking out to the right standard look easy last year - this and Bulgara show it ain't. Still at least Denmark tried something different - I hope they keep trying.
Austria - I'm the weird kid in that I never liked the studio cut of this much but enjoyed it much more on the night, probably because as New Wave/Post Punk kid I prefer things a bit more rough round the edges but rough it was...especially the vocals. The audience seemed to enjoy it but I can't imagine that the juries did. This is why the top performing countries are often the ones with National Finals - you get to road test something to see if it works live (and the singer can actually deliver it live) and if it doesn't then it'll get weeded out for something that will. [Predictably the public would have put them through but the juries vetoed it. I think the juries were right in this case it shouldn't have got through].
Interval acts - the dance fan Noosh really loved the DJs section - I'm not a trad clubber but it was good enough to entertain me. Like most folks what I've loved most was the guy who would have represented Italy in 2020 finally getting his go on the stage. He was great, the staging did it justice and the crowd singing along with him was a moment. One of a series of proper goose bump moments that almost made me cry of the evening.
Semi 2 - for the first time I actually voted in an ESC semi - the results were....mixed
We were off to a much worse start this time with a bit of a cringy comedy routine with one of the hosts (although the host is great - he seems like a cool guy) and then....
Israel - I found this entertaining but it was bit too camp to really tempt me to vote, people said it was probably going to be Israel's first NQ since Golden Boy in the Vienna 2015 contest reversed their fortunes and it was. Debate rages over the song was good enough for it to be a travesty and how much the guy's attention hoing behaviour nerfed him but although I didn't hate it I didn't feel it was a travesty it didn't get through unlike...
Georgia - this one hurt to lose, like Latvia the Georgians haven't appeared in final since 2016, like the Latvians I feel they would have added some much needed colour and leviaty to the final, plus some seriously arty and fabulously weird staging - think Victorian steam punk meets Tim Burton, 'twas probably a pipe dream this was ever going to do it but it's one I enjoyed and a real disapointment it ended for me, however I can appreciate mileage will vary radically on this one but I voted twice or thrice for it - in vain but I had to try. [As with Slovenia except even more so, I was gutted to find out that this is stone dead last in the final - sigh, more people voted for the Maltese generic pablem]
Malta - on the other hand I could not be more relieved didn't make it, calling it vanilla is an insult ...to vanilla which I actually quite like, they say that camels are like animals designed by committees but I think camels are cool and the only thing this has in common with them - apart from smacking of being workshopped - is it gave me the hump, bland souless trite nonsense even the singer wasn't nailing and maybe it's because not even she was feeling it. Apparently she's normally great but this song light years away from it.
San Marino - well this was an experience. I'm glad we got to see this - but maybe once was enough. I actually chucked it a vote. It's perhaps for the best I didn't prevail but I still think perhaps a nice thank you to Senor Laro and co for entertaining the eff out of me for three minutes. Crazy entry fans missed out here.
Cyprus - this was heartbreaking to watch, like Albania they tried something different and completely effed up staging it. The studio version was lovely with a video that completely captured the summery essense of the track but the staging was kinda crass and Andromache messed up the vocals and lost that essense, so sad. I really hope this doesn't discourage them and lead them back to sending pale Fuego clones again. [the televoters would have put it through - I'm not sure how I feel about that - I guess it might have given Andromache another chance to nail the vocals but much as it's hurts to type it I'm not sure that Azerbajan or something else better performed like North Macedonia who nearly got there didn't deserve the slot more].
North Macedonia and Montenegro - I feel I can lump these two together in that both are terrific vocalists who deserved better material to work with and show that there's a difference in the budgets and importance attached to certain countries over others in the not great staging of these. North Macedonia had a song that didn't really go anywhere either perhaps considering it's called Circles that's kinda appropriate but it didn't help them. Montenegro quit and then came back for this year - I'd be sad but not surprised if they quit for good after this especially since it was such a personal song for the singer and you can tell that as she gave it everything in the performance.
Ireland - it never seems to come together for Ireland apart from in 2018. This is the one that had the fans splitting blood in this semi and I can see why, Brooke was great, the staging was simple but effective (they learnt from complex staging sabotaging their singer last year), the song is a blast and would have really added something to the final. Again like with Slovenia, Brooke's very young and has probably gained a lot in experience, good will and contacts and I hope she can utilise them in the future. She certainly won't have to dive deep into soc media to know that many felt she was robbed. I chucked her a couple of votes so I tried man. [I think this is the disadvantage of being the British Isles buble - it would seem outside of it no one else was really that enamoured of this - still at least Brooke watching the final in the Irish pub in Turin along with Andrea from North Macedonia shows she wasn't that gutted which is cool].
Our Runners and Riders:
Czech Republic - this was pretty good in the semi and will be a good opener - prediction hmmm...I think around the middle of the board (top right or lower left), probably reasonable scores in both votes although more with televotes. [it was a bit worse and they were I think in the bottom 6 turns out that going first and just before Romania along with possibly some dodgy vocals nerfed them - a shame but they can be proud that they got their country to the final]
Romania - this is just such fun and this year they learnt from the last and sent a born performer with a latin mellow bop song and lots of dancers and staged it well, probably narrowly Qed on the televote so between that and spot of death won't do amazingly but won't be last - still the Q in itself is a result for them. [middlish of the right side - so this was about right]
Portugal - I'm a bit annoyed that this wasn't switched with Switzerland as this deserved a better slot to get televoters on side, it deserves more attention, very moving and beautiful, she's lovely and her charisma really comes across but likely to get lost in the shuffle for televoters amongst a lot of other slow songs, I would say juries will put it higher but there's lots of jury bait here but then last year they did well with juries, I think lower middle for them (top to middle right). [vastly underestimated the jury appeal with this one but was happy to be proved wrong as they earnt much a deserved 9th place]
Finland - fame alone of the Rasmus should assure a reasonable televote, it's alright and a nice pick me up for all the slow and mellow to come which will make it stand out, cringing lyrics at times, I think lower middle again - mostly on the strength of the televote. [I think more or less right here - except it was a bit lower than expected and was more mid right - televote was lower than expected}
Switzerland - it's nice - nice John Lewis Crimbo ad song, nice singing, nice performance, nice staging. I'd argue it deserved its spot but it was probably a borderline Q shoehorned in by juries while the televote went big for other things. It's fine and will be enjoyed by those it doesn't send to sleep but I won't vote for it nor will I suspect will most people under 60 and it's got bottom 6 written all over it. [Again very high jury saved it from that and elevated to 17th. The juries sure liked their ballad bros this year and literally couldn't get enough of them it seems. The televoters unsurprisingly and less unpredictably not so much. I'm not sure if I saw a zero televote coming but I knew it wouldn't be high]
France - this will wake anyone who nodded off during the Swiss song up and send its fans in the direction of the kitchen to make tea to escape it, probably the hardest to predict in terms of result, I'm interested to see it staged - I think bottom of the left of the board - pretty good televote score as it will stand out, less good jury score but not a disaster, might chuck it a vote if performance impresses, probably will [it didn't especially after hubbie called it borderline unlistenable, like many I did not expect a flop though in both sides of the vote too, I guess that the fandom likes electronic stuff in obscure languages more than the juries and the general televoting public - I suppose it just didn't come together enough to convince the average viewer and just came across as noise and chaos and not in the fun Moldovan sense].
Norway - as seen on Tick Tock, this is going to get a huge televote score - probably one of the top five of the night, it's pretty epic and one of the few uptempto and fun songs but can't see the juries going big for it although they won't completely ignore it, I think middle - probably low left side, maybe low top ten. [wasn't that far off with tenth]
Armenia - I like this but it's a bit neither fish or flesh when it comes to the vote - it's not a massive crowd pleaser that will send people reaching for the phones nor a vocal powerhouse or original blending of ethnic and contemporary that will have the juries showering it with points, the staging's an example of a good idea executed well which may bring some public love and will help it be memorable and it does have a unique sound and a catchy chrous, idk - I think middling result - probably upper right hand side of board. [it was actually in the bottom six just about in 20th]
Italy - ah the first host entry probably since Sweden certainly since Denmark 2001 (that one came second) to even be considered as a candidate for the win. Will it? probably not but it won't miss by much, I can see votes pouring in from both sets of voters here, probably getting a vote from me, this is lovely and Mahmood of course known and loved already as this isn't his first ESC rodeo, top ten - probably upper half, maybe even third. It certainly will not be last or get a big fat zero in either vote which already puts ahead of its the last three. [sixth - so not that far off - performance was worse than expected which nerfed it although only slightly].
Spain - the first of the zero to hero big 5 entries - I don't like this, massive style over substance IMO but I'm not under the illusion that the world shares my taste and with a derth of party songs and a good slot it's hand is pretty strong. Will get one of the biggest televotes of the night and jury is a bit more questionable, all of tv execs on the juries will love it but I don't see the music pros voting for it over the several vocal powerhouses, Chanel can hold a tune (and do it while jiggling which impresses some and yup it is impressive -I just don't think the song is) but even her most deluded fans - hopefully - aren't gonna argue she's the biggest vocal powerhouse of the night, I can see some seeing it as a bit tacky and prefering the more critically acclaimed and more emotional, complex structured and more original songs of the night but it won't flop with them. Prediction is hard - but I think the ESC community always overates bops and their chances so, perhaps unwisely and aided by wishful thinking, I don't see a win but I'd be surprised if it's not in the top ten - I think lower rather than upper half but top five wouldn't be a shock. [I think my dislke of it did hamper the prediction especially with the juries but not too badly I wasn't shocked at third especially in the televote although maybe a tad more with the juries I guess they appreciated the slick performance - I'm a bit miffed it did better than Fuego did with them as Fuego was a much better song IMO but I guess 2018 was a much better year and Sweden nabbed the slick performance there that year]
Netherlands - sigh, I love this but I think it coming between the countries it will in the running order and a glut of slow, emotional songs hasn't helped this at all. I still don't see it being a flop especially with the juries but it might struggle for televotes. Bulgaria last year got 11th and was 6th with juries and very low with televoters - I think this will do a bit better with them due to there being even sleeper songs that aren't anywhere near as distictive but I see a very similar final position. [I think I nailed this one - as it was in fact 11th technically worse than Victoria as didn't miss out on the top ten by a tie break but S10's televote was a bit higher in terms of points - she got twenty two more than Victoria last year - as with her performing position it should have been 10th just for meme value]
Ukraine - and here comes the elephant in the room. Will it win and will it do it on merit alone? - Probably and kinda I think. Look in the immortal words of Skin 'yes it's effing political, everything is political' and whilst there are times where it is more possible than others then politics are going to enter into any considerations - yes Israel won in 2018 but it wasn't being quite so bad as it is now and it's probably not an accident that Eden Alen didn't do so great in the televote for them last year. The televote will be huge but then again it was pre-war for Shum last year and there are ethnic elements mixed with contemporary ones in common with both entries (Shum had EDM, Stefania has rap) - they even the same bloke playing a trad woodwind instrument, it's a different instrument but here we are. Opinions and mileage as ever will vary but I loved Stefania from the moment I heard it in a selection of songs for the Ukranian national final and was disapointed when it wasn't originally selected as were the Ukraninan people who voted it their winner (the original winner was boosted by the jury). It's a good song, it's well performed and well staged. Are politics going to enter into it with the juries? - some - I can't see the ones in Eastern Europe or the Baltic States (and maybe even the Nordic countries) not giving it big scores but then again the latter would have gone big for it anyway (listen to Stefania and the Moldovan entry back to back and you will start to see sonic similarities) due to shared cultural elements. I think western and latin countries might be a bit more reticent and I don't think it will be the jury winner. I think it will win but even if it doesn't then it will certainly be top three. If it does win it doesn't invalidate the contest - as I think Stefania would still have done well even without the political crisis. [is there anyone who foresaw THAT high a televote? probably not - well done them, Slava Ukrani]
Germany - oh dear! From the probably winner to the probably loser. Poor Malik - he's a nice guy, he's talented and the song's not bad and has a poignant message but whilst the singing and performance are much better than those of Embers last year I think he's likely to do about as well as that song did. Some jury marks will spare him from total wipeout but I can't see much public love coming his way and I think that it's not just a likely if not the most likely last placer but I see a German hat trick of zero televote scores from consequentive contests as a real possibility. [Yup - nailed that but predicted the wrong half they'd get the zero points in, ironic isn't it? Jendrik which you'd peg as a televote song got jury points but no televote score whereas this which I felt would get jury points but zero televote did the exact opposite - I'm just glad that the poor guy didn't do a Newman and get zilch from both].
Lithunina - this one's a real wildcard or dark horse. It's low key but it doesn't sound like anything else, it's simply staged but Monica is really charismatic and holds your attention, it's position isn't great but it comes after Germany which helps it stick out and doesn't draw focus away from it. I think it's a song people either love or find annoying or boring. I think it's going to be about mid-table in both results and overall but mid right board is a possibility. [yup nailed that one as it got 14th overall but although jury slightly lower, televote slightly higher]
Azerbajan - like Switzerland I think this one was a borderline Q and a jury one, the Azeris benefit from a Turkish dispora so it will get some points from the televote but if a distinctive bop like Mata Hari last year sung by a singer in a rumoured showmance with another contestant didn't get much love from them then this won't either and the juries have a lot of other options to draw their attention. He's a good singer but although the song isn't completely boring or generic but for me it's easily the weakest of the ones that qualified from semi-final 2. I didn't think he'd make it and I'd rather he hadn't to be honest as he just feels like the one ballad dude too many. I think the hosts know that too and which is why he's got this rather dead spot rather than being on later in the battle of the balladeers. I don't see a single scenario where this doesn't end up in the bottom 6. It might end up cliching the wooden spoon from the Germans. [vastly underestimated jury score here - still suspicious of that especially after finding it got nothing from the televote in semi 2 - hmmm did the Azeris do even more jury rigging than they got caught out for? that said the world's most famous transphobe thought it was the best thing since sliced bread and she doesn't need the money so maybe it just appeals to music nerds and middle aged to old boring people - I'm middle aged but too rock orientated to be boring, at least musically - big time]
Belgium - yeah this was the other contraversal semi 2 qualifier and probably a borderline and jury darling one. Idk with this - I think like this country last year which qualified under very similar conditions with very similar backlash - I see a reasonable jury score and a shockingly low televote one. However it is in more of a niche than both Switzerland and Azerbajan so it might do ok with western televoters and the Aussies but it's a low midtable result at best and very likely upper end of the bottom six. I don't see this getting to the left of the board. I don't mind it but it's not getting a vote to save it from its fate from me. [ironically I was absolutely right and apart from it turns out Qing with both sets of results in the semi it pretty much followed the trajectory of The Wrong Place to the letter - reasonable jury score, crappy single figure televote score and 19th overal].
Greece - I think this might not do as less as the uber fans think as it doesn't necessarily stand out after Belgium but it should still get the left of board, high jury score likely and televote less predictable but I think it should be reasonable at least (I don't think it's just Cyprus with its ineviatable 12pts - never change guys, never change - that guarantees it won't be really low). I think similar to last year's result - low top ten. [yup - nailed that 8th and not on a tie break so slightly better]
Iceland - a surprise qualifier, like Greece - lovely but low key performance. I think reasonable jury mark but low televote - the latter especially probably mostly from fellow Nordics. I can't see eastern europeans, balkan or latin countries televoters giving a tiny rat's bum about this. This won't get to the left side - middle to low right, maybe even bottom 6. I like it but it was a result that it got here. [jury score was worse than I thought it would be and pretty poor too landing them in the bottom 3 before the televote even started - although I did say maybe bottom 6 overall so I can't say this result was a shock overall].
Moldova - and this is where the televotes will go or at least a fair amount of them especially in eastern europe, everything helps this do brilliantly there, the line of slow jury bait songs while really make this stand out to the televoters, juries....not so much - most likely to leap up the board the most when the televotes pour in and likely to be very very low on the board to begin with once the juries have voted, probably finishing mid table overall - low left or high right so the same as last year. I like it and I think it's badly needed but I won't be gutted with that. I promised a friend I'd vote for it. [I underestimated the televote here - saw it as good but second was a bit of a surprise so was a bit out with that as they were 7th - was right about shooting up the board though just underestimated the scale]
Sweden - and this what will sink their jury mark, this will do very well with them but I think the televote will be at least decent too, Cornelia will be top ten (I'll be shocked if she's not) it's just a question of where, I'm feeling the middle but could be wrong. [slightly wrong but not by much 4th is sort of the middle]
Australia - and the power dude trilogy begins! Jury marks will be high but televote is going to be interesting - he won't be disgraced in it but it might not be huge, this feels like a jury song and Australia tend to be a jury country, hmm - I think this is left of the board but either just out of or just inside the top ten. [vastly overestimated their televote - as you can see I didn't expect a flop there - I guess being between Cornelia and Sam really did him in - poor guy poured his heart out and the public said whatever dude! I wonder if the Aussie jury giving us no points is because they kinda knew that on some level]
UK - Once bitten, twice shy - I really feel I'm tempting fate and raising expectations to be dashed but the more I look at this I really can't see this being anything else other than the year we finally make it onto the left side of the board, also a dare to hope for the top ten is feeling more like a question of where as with Sweden - I'm not feeling brave enough to dare to think we'll top them so I'm going for lower half - I'm feeling about 7 or 8 maybe even 9 but yeah it feels like a freaking miracle that I'm even daring to think that. [edit - I realised I was missing the contest - as you can see I really didn't envisage either second place or jury winner as on the cards - eff me gently with a chainsaw!!!]
[I think I thought Poland would do better than 12th and especially that they'd do better with the juries, you'd think that powerful and beautiful voice singing that lovely power ballad would be showered with points. Poor Ochman probably had his thunder stolen by the other ballad dudes being more flamboyant in terms of staging, costuming and personalities - the latter being a factor in the contest in general as a lot of charismatic people this year and it maybe why the delagation went with all those flashy effects which didn't go down well with the juries at least. However I do start to wonder if for some reason the juries just don't love the Polish no matter what - maybe they resent that they get televote points no matter what crap they send - and if that's what motivated them to cheat this year. Still they should be really happy with left of the board - it was pretty competitive . Our televote gave Ochman 10pts, second only to the Ukranians. The Polish benefit from a huge disapora here as in some other places but it was still deserved and it wasn't the whole story behind that as I was a part of that and as far as I know I don't have a drop of Polish blood in me. I probably envisionaged a low top ten position so I'm guessing not that far off
Serbia - I thought she'd do well but top five! Well done Konstrustra - I was a part of that too just a much smaller one since we gave Serbia a point in our televote.
Estonia - I guess in general expectations were lower here than with Poland but as with them I thought this would do better. However it did better than many pundits seemed to think it (James at ESC United thought it would be a borderline NQ although he was utterly off base there) would due to staging issues from the malfunctioning sun (which were offset by Stefan's energy and charisma as was the case with Lithunina) and I'm very happy for the country and again was a part of that - I voted for them]