When This Recession Ends
I'm constantly hearing things like "when the recession ends" and "when we get past the rough patches" and "we have always pulled through before"... but I believe that these words are not only of little comfort, but they may turn out to be false.
This recession may never end.
"Oh!" one might say, "you are being so negative and melodramatic. OF COURSE, it will end eventually!"
I understand.
I don't like the idea either.
I don't like that people are losing their ability to care for themselves or their families.
I don't like what is going on, how we got here, or the slow pace at which national and state governments are attempting to "deal with" the recession.
And, I do hold out hope, that "some how", everyone will find the magical way through to some shiny future on the other side, but frankly, I've done the calculations, and the numbers just don't add up.
This recession may never end.
Why?
Why might it not end?
Well, I really don't know how to say it in a sentence, so I'll just do my best to explain.
This recession may never end because the global economy, the one that is "contracting" or "shrinking" right now, can only grow if world energy usage grows, and, again, looking at the numbers, I don't think that can happen.
We have probably passed the all time maximum global energy usage of our economy. The vast majority of that energy comes from the fossil fuels. And while coal may be abundant in some areas, it is oil that is the most useful in moving us and things from place to place. And it is oil that seems to have already peaked out in usage, and on the edge of an unavoidable decline.
Less oil available means less energy for the economy which means less jobs... and eventually businesses will get the hint and realize that they will no longer be growing... but instead they will be shrinking... which means they will stop buying ANYTHING that is necessary for growth, and the global economy will slow even more. It is a vicious cycle, the liquidity trap, and more likely than not, it will spell out the end of the global economy.
But what does this really mean?
It means that each day, less people will be needed to make things, and move things, and do things.
It means that the unemployment rate will go from 11% to 15% to 20% to 30% and so on.
It means that putting all of our hopes in, all of our eggs in, this one basket hope of "some how" getting to recovery is ignoring the reality that the global economy is now dying and the attempt to help it are now, at best, palliative.
WHY doesn't anyone in government, in media, in public point this out?
The recession may never end!
THE RECESSION MAY NEVER END!!!
Now what?
What do we do?
How do we live without the global economy?
*** Deep breathe in... Deep breathe out... ***
The global economy is dying, but WE do not have to die with it.
Right now, we depend on the global economy to feed us. If we didn't have cash, we couldn't buy food. If the stores didn't have food, we couldn't buy it. And if there is no cash, and no food in the stores, then the global economy is dead.
"WHOA!" think some. "That is pretty drastic, crazy thinking."
Well, no. It is a matter of the numbers, and in this case in particular, the numbers don't lie. We have already burned up about half of all the oil that we ever would have been able to get out of the earth. What we used up was the really easy to extract oil. And now, all that is left, is the hard to find, expensive to extract, and very far from home oil. And as it becomes either scarce or expensive, it will continue to reek havoc upon our financial system.
It wasn't just a coincidence that the global economy "bubble burst" after the oil prices went over $100/barrel. The high oil prices put pressure on the economic system, and the economic system broke. The oil prices went high because we weren't able to get it out of Earth as fast as we hoped to consume it. And the reason that the economic system was so fragile was because we were at $10/barrel oil, and from that point on, as the oil prices began to rise, the rules were loosened, all around the world, to help create more money or capital or economic activity despite the fact that we were shipping our money away in order to have the ever expensive black gold energy that we desired.
And so now, here we are, with the economy broken, and us attempting to mend it with a cast, and yet it is not broken cleanly, but rather it is diseased, and the cast will do nothing to mend the leg.
Our economic system is a strange beast to start with.
We make money by minting coins.
We allow central banks to make money by just printing an amount on a special paper.
We allow everybody to go out and "promise to pay in back" via instruments called "credit cards" and "loans" and "mortgages".
AND, we allow everybody to spend the money and credit as fast as they want... or as slow as they want.
Well, this leads to a number of issues. First, the total amount of money in existance on Earth can easily go up, or down, as any of the players alter what they are doing.
What if people stop "promising to pay back" large amounts?
Money vanishes! There is less to go around!
What if people stop spending money as fast?
More money vanishes! There is even less to go around!
So here we are, our government attempting to fix a disease with a plaster cast, trying to control the size and speed of this money, which is just not flowing the way it should.
The more one reads about what exactly is now going on, and has gone on with money over the past couple of years, and really for the whole of the history of money back hundreds or thousand of years, the more one realizes how experimental and flawed it is.
What few realized was that money itself only represents something else... energy.
Yes, that E equals M C squared energy… that kilowatt hour energy… that BTU energy… hat Calorie energy.
Yes, money simply represents energy... or more specifically, a claim on energy that has either already been expended, or that will be expended in the future.
What happens when a single... a SINGLE... economic system expands to include the entire world... and then the energy that fuels that single economic system begins to decline?
That is what we are now learning…
…that this recession, this contraction, this shrinkage, of the global economy, MAY NEVER END.
So, as a prudent young man, I have to think to myself, do I just want to wait on the hope that someone else will be able to "FIX IT!", to fix the unfixable?
Or, might I want... might I consider... what I should be doing to prepare for a recession that will never end?
I chose the later.
It is time for us to face the facts:
* This recession may never end
* No one may be able to fix it
* Waiting around means accepting that we are simply playing the roles of little children who hope to be pandered, and protected, and taken care of... by a non-existent parent.
Yes, it is time for us to take responsibility for our own futures, not wait on some good hearted people in far distant places to fix the unfixable.
That is serial insanity to the Nth degree.
It is time to take control of our own lives, and to admit to ourselves, that the party is over. This "free ride" of our life up to this point, which seemed oh-so difficult at the time, was actually a great orgy of exuberance, and not only was it bound to end, but we are seeing the end right now.
We are seeing the people who are losing their jobs, today, and losing their role within the global economy... losing their function within the global economy... losing their ability to rely on the global economy to "provide all" for them.
And so, people are finding themselves (as we all will eventually) having to admit that this is not only bad, but they don't know what they are going to do.
Yes, it makes sense. We have been taught our entire lives that we can depend on the global economy... we can trust it... and it will take care of us... and all we need is to be willing to play by the rules... and we can have all the food, and homes, and medical care, and entertainment that our globally-exchangeable money can buy.
But, maybe we can not trust this global economy.
Maybe, the global economy is dying.
Maybe, this recession will never end.
Now what?
THIS global economy is not the only economy to have ever existed.
There have been economies, big and small, for thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of years.
This was the only one to span so much of the world, to have so many participants, and to consume so much energy, and so much of the earth.
But it will not be the first one to fail. Many other economies have went the way of the dinosaur, never to return.
Now what?
Now it is time for us to recognize that...
...if we want food, we may have to grow it ourselves.
...if we want work, we will have to offer it up to others, and be willing to take whatever can give in exchange.
...if we want a home, we will have to refuse to leave when they knock on the door... because when we all do that, in a few months, there will be no space left in the prisons and jails... and when we get out, we are returning to our house, whether the global economic system's rules want us to or not.
But there is more, much more, because this recession may never end.
It is time, HIGH time, that we begin creating our own, SMALL local economies that can function between us, and our neighbors, and our community, so that we can work best together to make sure that everyone is fed, everyone is safe, everyone is warm, and everyone is protected.
To create these local economies, we create our own way to barter and exchange goods and services. We could call it a coupon, or script, or hour, or whatever. But we can create these things, to count, for us and others, as to how much each of us has contributed.
We can create local currencies. Not only is it "legal" to do, but it is being done hundreds, if not thousands, of places already.
The out of work person; they may not be able to find a job in the global economy, earning dollars, or Euros, or pesos, or lira, but they could earn certainly earn some local currency within their community, for doing that which is needed by others.
I need a barn built. I need a baby watched. I need a hair cut. I need a exercise class. I'm willing to pay with a local currency. And I'm willing to accept a local currency for service that I provide.
If I grow some carrots, or peppers, or potatoes, I'll accept the local currency, and you can have some food to eat.
If I have an empty room to rent, I'll accept some local currency, and you can have a safe place to stay.
For the person that can grow and store all their own food, with a surplus, each and every year, perhaps they need little else. But for the rest of us, the specialists of the world, and the unskilled at growing things, we will need to both learn how to grow food, and how to function within a local economy, that won't include billions of people like this dying global economy, but rather just a dozen, or a hundred, or perhaps a thousand, but still a small fraction, of a small fraction of this system we're "stuck" in now.
So, what is my point?
My point is that this recession may never end. This global economy that we rely on for everything may fail. We need to grow our own food, create local barter systems or perhaps local currencies, and help others to face the reality that we are probably at THE turning point... of not just our lives, but of the history of civilization.
And to face the reality, for once... that this recession may never, ever, EVER end.
This recession may never end.
"Oh!" one might say, "you are being so negative and melodramatic. OF COURSE, it will end eventually!"
I understand.
I don't like the idea either.
I don't like that people are losing their ability to care for themselves or their families.
I don't like what is going on, how we got here, or the slow pace at which national and state governments are attempting to "deal with" the recession.
And, I do hold out hope, that "some how", everyone will find the magical way through to some shiny future on the other side, but frankly, I've done the calculations, and the numbers just don't add up.
This recession may never end.
Why?
Why might it not end?
Well, I really don't know how to say it in a sentence, so I'll just do my best to explain.
This recession may never end because the global economy, the one that is "contracting" or "shrinking" right now, can only grow if world energy usage grows, and, again, looking at the numbers, I don't think that can happen.
We have probably passed the all time maximum global energy usage of our economy. The vast majority of that energy comes from the fossil fuels. And while coal may be abundant in some areas, it is oil that is the most useful in moving us and things from place to place. And it is oil that seems to have already peaked out in usage, and on the edge of an unavoidable decline.
Less oil available means less energy for the economy which means less jobs... and eventually businesses will get the hint and realize that they will no longer be growing... but instead they will be shrinking... which means they will stop buying ANYTHING that is necessary for growth, and the global economy will slow even more. It is a vicious cycle, the liquidity trap, and more likely than not, it will spell out the end of the global economy.
But what does this really mean?
It means that each day, less people will be needed to make things, and move things, and do things.
It means that the unemployment rate will go from 11% to 15% to 20% to 30% and so on.
It means that putting all of our hopes in, all of our eggs in, this one basket hope of "some how" getting to recovery is ignoring the reality that the global economy is now dying and the attempt to help it are now, at best, palliative.
WHY doesn't anyone in government, in media, in public point this out?
The recession may never end!
THE RECESSION MAY NEVER END!!!
Now what?
What do we do?
How do we live without the global economy?
*** Deep breathe in... Deep breathe out... ***
The global economy is dying, but WE do not have to die with it.
Right now, we depend on the global economy to feed us. If we didn't have cash, we couldn't buy food. If the stores didn't have food, we couldn't buy it. And if there is no cash, and no food in the stores, then the global economy is dead.
"WHOA!" think some. "That is pretty drastic, crazy thinking."
Well, no. It is a matter of the numbers, and in this case in particular, the numbers don't lie. We have already burned up about half of all the oil that we ever would have been able to get out of the earth. What we used up was the really easy to extract oil. And now, all that is left, is the hard to find, expensive to extract, and very far from home oil. And as it becomes either scarce or expensive, it will continue to reek havoc upon our financial system.
It wasn't just a coincidence that the global economy "bubble burst" after the oil prices went over $100/barrel. The high oil prices put pressure on the economic system, and the economic system broke. The oil prices went high because we weren't able to get it out of Earth as fast as we hoped to consume it. And the reason that the economic system was so fragile was because we were at $10/barrel oil, and from that point on, as the oil prices began to rise, the rules were loosened, all around the world, to help create more money or capital or economic activity despite the fact that we were shipping our money away in order to have the ever expensive black gold energy that we desired.
And so now, here we are, with the economy broken, and us attempting to mend it with a cast, and yet it is not broken cleanly, but rather it is diseased, and the cast will do nothing to mend the leg.
Our economic system is a strange beast to start with.
We make money by minting coins.
We allow central banks to make money by just printing an amount on a special paper.
We allow everybody to go out and "promise to pay in back" via instruments called "credit cards" and "loans" and "mortgages".
AND, we allow everybody to spend the money and credit as fast as they want... or as slow as they want.
Well, this leads to a number of issues. First, the total amount of money in existance on Earth can easily go up, or down, as any of the players alter what they are doing.
What if people stop "promising to pay back" large amounts?
Money vanishes! There is less to go around!
What if people stop spending money as fast?
More money vanishes! There is even less to go around!
So here we are, our government attempting to fix a disease with a plaster cast, trying to control the size and speed of this money, which is just not flowing the way it should.
The more one reads about what exactly is now going on, and has gone on with money over the past couple of years, and really for the whole of the history of money back hundreds or thousand of years, the more one realizes how experimental and flawed it is.
What few realized was that money itself only represents something else... energy.
Yes, that E equals M C squared energy… that kilowatt hour energy… that BTU energy… hat Calorie energy.
Yes, money simply represents energy... or more specifically, a claim on energy that has either already been expended, or that will be expended in the future.
What happens when a single... a SINGLE... economic system expands to include the entire world... and then the energy that fuels that single economic system begins to decline?
That is what we are now learning…
…that this recession, this contraction, this shrinkage, of the global economy, MAY NEVER END.
So, as a prudent young man, I have to think to myself, do I just want to wait on the hope that someone else will be able to "FIX IT!", to fix the unfixable?
Or, might I want... might I consider... what I should be doing to prepare for a recession that will never end?
I chose the later.
It is time for us to face the facts:
* This recession may never end
* No one may be able to fix it
* Waiting around means accepting that we are simply playing the roles of little children who hope to be pandered, and protected, and taken care of... by a non-existent parent.
Yes, it is time for us to take responsibility for our own futures, not wait on some good hearted people in far distant places to fix the unfixable.
That is serial insanity to the Nth degree.
It is time to take control of our own lives, and to admit to ourselves, that the party is over. This "free ride" of our life up to this point, which seemed oh-so difficult at the time, was actually a great orgy of exuberance, and not only was it bound to end, but we are seeing the end right now.
We are seeing the people who are losing their jobs, today, and losing their role within the global economy... losing their function within the global economy... losing their ability to rely on the global economy to "provide all" for them.
And so, people are finding themselves (as we all will eventually) having to admit that this is not only bad, but they don't know what they are going to do.
Yes, it makes sense. We have been taught our entire lives that we can depend on the global economy... we can trust it... and it will take care of us... and all we need is to be willing to play by the rules... and we can have all the food, and homes, and medical care, and entertainment that our globally-exchangeable money can buy.
But, maybe we can not trust this global economy.
Maybe, the global economy is dying.
Maybe, this recession will never end.
Now what?
THIS global economy is not the only economy to have ever existed.
There have been economies, big and small, for thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, of years.
This was the only one to span so much of the world, to have so many participants, and to consume so much energy, and so much of the earth.
But it will not be the first one to fail. Many other economies have went the way of the dinosaur, never to return.
Now what?
Now it is time for us to recognize that...
...if we want food, we may have to grow it ourselves.
...if we want work, we will have to offer it up to others, and be willing to take whatever can give in exchange.
...if we want a home, we will have to refuse to leave when they knock on the door... because when we all do that, in a few months, there will be no space left in the prisons and jails... and when we get out, we are returning to our house, whether the global economic system's rules want us to or not.
But there is more, much more, because this recession may never end.
It is time, HIGH time, that we begin creating our own, SMALL local economies that can function between us, and our neighbors, and our community, so that we can work best together to make sure that everyone is fed, everyone is safe, everyone is warm, and everyone is protected.
To create these local economies, we create our own way to barter and exchange goods and services. We could call it a coupon, or script, or hour, or whatever. But we can create these things, to count, for us and others, as to how much each of us has contributed.
We can create local currencies. Not only is it "legal" to do, but it is being done hundreds, if not thousands, of places already.
The out of work person; they may not be able to find a job in the global economy, earning dollars, or Euros, or pesos, or lira, but they could earn certainly earn some local currency within their community, for doing that which is needed by others.
I need a barn built. I need a baby watched. I need a hair cut. I need a exercise class. I'm willing to pay with a local currency. And I'm willing to accept a local currency for service that I provide.
If I grow some carrots, or peppers, or potatoes, I'll accept the local currency, and you can have some food to eat.
If I have an empty room to rent, I'll accept some local currency, and you can have a safe place to stay.
For the person that can grow and store all their own food, with a surplus, each and every year, perhaps they need little else. But for the rest of us, the specialists of the world, and the unskilled at growing things, we will need to both learn how to grow food, and how to function within a local economy, that won't include billions of people like this dying global economy, but rather just a dozen, or a hundred, or perhaps a thousand, but still a small fraction, of a small fraction of this system we're "stuck" in now.
So, what is my point?
My point is that this recession may never end. This global economy that we rely on for everything may fail. We need to grow our own food, create local barter systems or perhaps local currencies, and help others to face the reality that we are probably at THE turning point... of not just our lives, but of the history of civilization.
And to face the reality, for once... that this recession may never, ever, EVER end.