I Know a Little Bit about the Future (because of Peak Oil)
I like to know a little bit about the future.
Knowing about the future, being able to predict tomorrow, the next day, next month, and next year, at least with a certain degree of certainty, is quite helpful.
Peak oil is something that is going to determine and control what happens in the future. While I don't know exactly what is going to happen in the future, or even how exactly peak oil is going to impact my life, I do know that there will be impacts, that they will be major, and that they will be widespread, impacting everyone.
So, what is this thing "peak oil"?
Well, it is not quite as simple as a single definition. Most generically, peak oil is the moment in time when the rate of oil extraction from any geographic area reaches its all time maximum and then begins to decline. This has happened in most geological areas. The state of Michigan saw its peak in oil production decades ago, much earlier was Pennsylvania, and practically all other states have already seen their own oil production peaks. The same goes for countries and regions. The USA as a whole had a peak in oil production in 1970. Other nations have seen similar peaks and are now in the declining phase of oil production.
What now seems most essential is when the total global oil production reaches its peak and begins to decline. It some ways, this has already occurred. When considering only the easy-to-get oil that is on-shore, oil that flows up the pipe smoothly and is of a quality that can go straight to a standard refinery, this peak happened in 2005 or 2006. Also, when considering the amount of oil-equivalent extracted per person in the world, this per capita peak happened decades ago. Finally, the peak in oil available for export on the world market also peaked a few years ago. This means that each year there is less oil available for purchase on the world market, meaning that someone is forced to use less oil, probably because they can not afford to buy as much as they once did.
More peaks are on the horizon. One which is the total of all oil, including tar sands, deep water, polar regions, and other very hard to get and poor quality oil. Another peak is when the total of all petroleum in the world, including natural gas in the total, reaches its maximum and begins to decline. Both of these peaks are close at hand, with 2010 (that is within two years from now) being one estimate that seems very realistic.
(Two weeks later)
The importance of peak oil is that the world economy is literally fueled by oil, in particular the growth of the global economy, and it is designed to grow only by adding oil energy, so a decline in the production of oil will impact the global economy's ability to grow. As the oil production begins to fall, the ability of the global economy to operate effectively will rapidly decline, as we experienced in 2008.
Watch these videos to learn more: www.youtube.com/newculture
Knowing about the future, being able to predict tomorrow, the next day, next month, and next year, at least with a certain degree of certainty, is quite helpful.
Peak oil is something that is going to determine and control what happens in the future. While I don't know exactly what is going to happen in the future, or even how exactly peak oil is going to impact my life, I do know that there will be impacts, that they will be major, and that they will be widespread, impacting everyone.
So, what is this thing "peak oil"?
Well, it is not quite as simple as a single definition. Most generically, peak oil is the moment in time when the rate of oil extraction from any geographic area reaches its all time maximum and then begins to decline. This has happened in most geological areas. The state of Michigan saw its peak in oil production decades ago, much earlier was Pennsylvania, and practically all other states have already seen their own oil production peaks. The same goes for countries and regions. The USA as a whole had a peak in oil production in 1970. Other nations have seen similar peaks and are now in the declining phase of oil production.
What now seems most essential is when the total global oil production reaches its peak and begins to decline. It some ways, this has already occurred. When considering only the easy-to-get oil that is on-shore, oil that flows up the pipe smoothly and is of a quality that can go straight to a standard refinery, this peak happened in 2005 or 2006. Also, when considering the amount of oil-equivalent extracted per person in the world, this per capita peak happened decades ago. Finally, the peak in oil available for export on the world market also peaked a few years ago. This means that each year there is less oil available for purchase on the world market, meaning that someone is forced to use less oil, probably because they can not afford to buy as much as they once did.
More peaks are on the horizon. One which is the total of all oil, including tar sands, deep water, polar regions, and other very hard to get and poor quality oil. Another peak is when the total of all petroleum in the world, including natural gas in the total, reaches its maximum and begins to decline. Both of these peaks are close at hand, with 2010 (that is within two years from now) being one estimate that seems very realistic.
(Two weeks later)
The importance of peak oil is that the world economy is literally fueled by oil, in particular the growth of the global economy, and it is designed to grow only by adding oil energy, so a decline in the production of oil will impact the global economy's ability to grow. As the oil production begins to fall, the ability of the global economy to operate effectively will rapidly decline, as we experienced in 2008.
Watch these videos to learn more: www.youtube.com/newculture