To My Sister, on Peak Oil - Part I - Food
Over the weekend, my sister was asking about what to do to prepare for peak oil. I think this is a very fine question, and so, I shall attempt my very best, detailed answer.
First off, peak oil may impact us very quickly, or very slowly. Just like owning a home, there are things that should be done to protect it in the moment (insurance) and to keep it in shape for the long term (maintenance).
The most dramatic, and catastrophic, impact of peak oil could be a total collapse of the global economic system. Combine hyperinflation or hyper-deflation, with a loss of oil imports, a collapse of the transportation system due to high fuel prices along with shortages, an end to the food distribution system, and a failure of the electric grid. Where does that leave us? No food, no electricity, no transportation, and no money. How likely is this? I certainly hope it is VERY unlikely, but it seems a whole lot more likely than a home fire or tornado, against which we have insurance. Let's just place a number on this at 25% chance of happening in the next 12-months. That is to say, it is unlikely.
With a 25% chance of something that catastrophic happening, it only makes sense to prepare. This is the so called "survivalist" thinking that makes good headlines in the mainstream corporate media. "So-and-so has a shed full of wood and a pantry of food," is typically the line. I certainly am glad that my parents, grandparents, great-grandparents, etc., all the way back, had this sort of thinking in mind. For if they didn't, neither my sister nor I would be here now. All humans (and all animals for that matter) are inherently survivalists. That is our nature. And if it weren't, we wouldn't be here. Calling a human a survivalist is like calling water wet... in other words, duh. It is only our illusory belief that everything will keep working (because it has been working for so long, why wouldn't it work tomorrow) that lulls us into a state of unpreparedness. But again, it is only a 25% chance. That means there is a 75% chance that all of these things won't happen within the next 12-months...
Let's take things one at a time.
PART I - FOOD
Food Insurance - The Home Pantry
Everyone should have weeks, months, perhaps even years of food in storage where they live. This doesn't need to be "survivalist rations" or "Meals Ready to Eat", it can simply be a nice, full pantry with mostly food that one would buy at the store anyway. For example, I love breakfast cereal. Instead of buying a box or two every few weeks, I bought twenty boxes, and there they sit, until I need a new one (it is actually time to restock, so I'm on the eye out for a sale). We have canned soup, and boxes of pasta, and some sugar, salt, flour, and rice; boxes of pancake mix, and brownie mix, and just all sorts of different foods that we eat during the year. The great majority of this is food that can sit on the pantry shelf for months, or years.
Now if it sounds a bit out of the ordinary to have months or years of food on hand, consider two thoughts. First, the Wall Street Journal itself had a full article devoted to stocking a full pantry as a great investment, since rising food prices mean that buying early will earn a handsome return. Second, our grandparents, and great-grandparents, and great-greats all the way back, all tried to have a stocked pantry, and for the most part, would have liked to have had even more, particularly when the lead times came before. This is not a new, unique, or out-of-the-ordinary thing. It is just what smart people, who are planning ahead, and care for the health of themselves and their families, do.
Food Maintenance - Growing It
A total collapse of the food system is possible, but even more likely, is a partial collapse of the system, or simply prices rising so quickly that food bills rapidly get out of hand. Why wait around for something like this to happen? And what if a food crisis goes on for months, years, or (I certainly hope not) decades?
Grow your own food.
Yes, grow your own food.
This is not as difficult as it may sound. Again, our grandparents, great-grandparents, and back hundreds of generations, grew most of their own food. This is not a new idea, but it is a smart idea. After all, what is the one thing that we all need, that is tough to come by? Food.
Water we can find, if we were sure to live near a stream, or pond, or lake, or ocean, or at least somewhere that it rains. Heat, we can deal with by bundling up, and then bundling another layer on top of that, and on top of that. Security we can have by working with neighbors, and community, and getting to know and get along with those around us. But food, that is tricky, and being able to feed ourselves is the most essential, and challenging, thing that we should be doing for ourselves.
How?
No matter where you live, as long as there is a bit of daylight, or even artificial light, food can be grown. I happen to live in the country, with over an acre of land for growing food, and we are, or I should say, my wife is. We have growing right now apples, pears, asparagus, several varieties of potatoes and tomatoes, rhubarb, lettuce, strawberries, and quite a few others. We have yet to plant some corn, beans, berry bushes, and once we find some, nut trees. Our goal is to eventually be able to feed ourselves well, entirely from what we grow ourselves.
Even in the city, food can be grown. There are vacant lots, and bits of grass here and there that could easily be a nice vegetable garden. Planters in windows, and on porches and decks and rooftops, can all provide a nice, real portion of food.
Growing food is not something that one can do all of the sudden. It is something that everyone should start doing now, so that the tricks, and pitfalls are learned in advance. For example, right now, the rose chafers are eating everything, and I just ran off a hungry little bunny the other day. I don't mind other critters having a meal, but all the same, I'm going to do what I can to make sure that the food that is growing is available to my family.
The trickiest part is probably the food storage for winter. Keep in mind that to really last an entire year on food grown at home, lots would need to be put into storage. In addition, food can be grown year round, even in very cold winter areas, by having a warm sunny spot inside set up with an indoor mini-garden. These two topics deserve much more attention, but other web pages, and numerous books, go into the details on how to store food and how to grow year-round inside.
A final note on food: growing food is smart. Think back to World War II, and how everyone was encourage to have a "Victory Garden" to grow their own food. This was not only a good idea, but it provided fresh, healthy, locally grown (and practically free) food to people. Now, using sustainable permaculture techniques, we can grow even more food, in a smaller area, in a manner that uses less inputs.
We know how to grow food. Now, it is up to us to do it.
Food Security - Talking with Neighbors
Once one is growing food, it is a good time to look around to see who else is growing food, and to start talking about how nice it is to get outside, and to ask questions. By showing interest in others' gardens, the amount of food grown in the neighborhood is likely to increase. This, coupled with a discussion on how to set up a nice pantry, and good deals on bulk items, may help to increase the amount of food that neighbors grow and/or have on hand. In a situation where something does happen to the food distribution system, having neighbors who are also well prepared adds a level of security and helps to increase the ability to provide for mutual aide. In addition, it is nice to swap garden items.
The next step is working with a wider community to come up with ways to encourage community members to grow a nice variety of foods, and to make those available at a local grocery store or farmers market. Ultimately, a well prepared community would be able to switch over to a fully local food system at any moment in time, in order to provide for the basic food needs of the entire community. Such a system could be carefully designed by inviting stakeholders together to develop an "Emergency Local Food System Implementation Plan", or something similar.
Everything Else
The most important way to prepare for peak oil is to make sure that food is taken care of.
Security, water, shelter, heat, sanitation, medical, etc. are all important, but without some long term planning for food, the rest is of only temporary value. After all, we can't live more than a few weeks without food. No matter what happens in the future, having food in storage, and growing some as well, can provide a degree of independence beyond any other area of focus.
Victory Garden
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden
http://www.revivevictorygarden.org/
http://www.archive.org/details/victory_garden
http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe40s/crops_02.html
http://www.cityfarmer.org/grandpasVG.html
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/victorygarden/watch/index.html
Rose Chafers Info
Rose Chafer Beetle (Macrodactylus subspinosus)
http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/horticulture/M1198.html
http://bugguide.net/node/view/2884
http://wihort.uwex.edu/flowers/RoseChafers.htm
http://www.cooperseeds.com/rosecare.php3?cartid=
http://www.grapes.msu.edu/rosechafer.htm
http://msutoday.msu.edu/archive/?article=11Jul2002-3
http://www.ipm.msu.edu/stonefruit/rosechafer.htm
http://www.ipm.msu.edu/woodylandscape/rosechafer.htm
http://www.sactorose.org/ipm/84rosechafers.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrodactylus_subspinosus
http://www.virginiafruit.ento.vt.edu/chafer.html
http://bugguide.net/node/view/2884
http://www.forestryimages.org/browse/subthumb.cfm?sub=168&start=1
First off, peak oil may impact us very quickly, or very slowly. Just like owning a home, there are things that should be done to protect it in the moment (insurance) and to keep it in shape for the long term (maintenance).
The most dramatic, and catastrophic, impact of peak oil could be a total collapse of the global economic system. Combine hyperinflation or hyper-deflation, with a loss of oil imports, a collapse of the transportation system due to high fuel prices along with shortages, an end to the food distribution system, and a failure of the electric grid. Where does that leave us? No food, no electricity, no transportation, and no money. How likely is this? I certainly hope it is VERY unlikely, but it seems a whole lot more likely than a home fire or tornado, against which we have insurance. Let's just place a number on this at 25% chance of happening in the next 12-months. That is to say, it is unlikely.
With a 25% chance of something that catastrophic happening, it only makes sense to prepare. This is the so called "survivalist" thinking that makes good headlines in the mainstream corporate media. "So-and-so has a shed full of wood and a pantry of food," is typically the line. I certainly am glad that my parents, grandparents, great-grandparents, etc., all the way back, had this sort of thinking in mind. For if they didn't, neither my sister nor I would be here now. All humans (and all animals for that matter) are inherently survivalists. That is our nature. And if it weren't, we wouldn't be here. Calling a human a survivalist is like calling water wet... in other words, duh. It is only our illusory belief that everything will keep working (because it has been working for so long, why wouldn't it work tomorrow) that lulls us into a state of unpreparedness. But again, it is only a 25% chance. That means there is a 75% chance that all of these things won't happen within the next 12-months...
Let's take things one at a time.
PART I - FOOD
Food Insurance - The Home Pantry
Everyone should have weeks, months, perhaps even years of food in storage where they live. This doesn't need to be "survivalist rations" or "Meals Ready to Eat", it can simply be a nice, full pantry with mostly food that one would buy at the store anyway. For example, I love breakfast cereal. Instead of buying a box or two every few weeks, I bought twenty boxes, and there they sit, until I need a new one (it is actually time to restock, so I'm on the eye out for a sale). We have canned soup, and boxes of pasta, and some sugar, salt, flour, and rice; boxes of pancake mix, and brownie mix, and just all sorts of different foods that we eat during the year. The great majority of this is food that can sit on the pantry shelf for months, or years.
Now if it sounds a bit out of the ordinary to have months or years of food on hand, consider two thoughts. First, the Wall Street Journal itself had a full article devoted to stocking a full pantry as a great investment, since rising food prices mean that buying early will earn a handsome return. Second, our grandparents, and great-grandparents, and great-greats all the way back, all tried to have a stocked pantry, and for the most part, would have liked to have had even more, particularly when the lead times came before. This is not a new, unique, or out-of-the-ordinary thing. It is just what smart people, who are planning ahead, and care for the health of themselves and their families, do.
Food Maintenance - Growing It
A total collapse of the food system is possible, but even more likely, is a partial collapse of the system, or simply prices rising so quickly that food bills rapidly get out of hand. Why wait around for something like this to happen? And what if a food crisis goes on for months, years, or (I certainly hope not) decades?
Grow your own food.
Yes, grow your own food.
This is not as difficult as it may sound. Again, our grandparents, great-grandparents, and back hundreds of generations, grew most of their own food. This is not a new idea, but it is a smart idea. After all, what is the one thing that we all need, that is tough to come by? Food.
Water we can find, if we were sure to live near a stream, or pond, or lake, or ocean, or at least somewhere that it rains. Heat, we can deal with by bundling up, and then bundling another layer on top of that, and on top of that. Security we can have by working with neighbors, and community, and getting to know and get along with those around us. But food, that is tricky, and being able to feed ourselves is the most essential, and challenging, thing that we should be doing for ourselves.
How?
No matter where you live, as long as there is a bit of daylight, or even artificial light, food can be grown. I happen to live in the country, with over an acre of land for growing food, and we are, or I should say, my wife is. We have growing right now apples, pears, asparagus, several varieties of potatoes and tomatoes, rhubarb, lettuce, strawberries, and quite a few others. We have yet to plant some corn, beans, berry bushes, and once we find some, nut trees. Our goal is to eventually be able to feed ourselves well, entirely from what we grow ourselves.
Even in the city, food can be grown. There are vacant lots, and bits of grass here and there that could easily be a nice vegetable garden. Planters in windows, and on porches and decks and rooftops, can all provide a nice, real portion of food.
Growing food is not something that one can do all of the sudden. It is something that everyone should start doing now, so that the tricks, and pitfalls are learned in advance. For example, right now, the rose chafers are eating everything, and I just ran off a hungry little bunny the other day. I don't mind other critters having a meal, but all the same, I'm going to do what I can to make sure that the food that is growing is available to my family.
The trickiest part is probably the food storage for winter. Keep in mind that to really last an entire year on food grown at home, lots would need to be put into storage. In addition, food can be grown year round, even in very cold winter areas, by having a warm sunny spot inside set up with an indoor mini-garden. These two topics deserve much more attention, but other web pages, and numerous books, go into the details on how to store food and how to grow year-round inside.
A final note on food: growing food is smart. Think back to World War II, and how everyone was encourage to have a "Victory Garden" to grow their own food. This was not only a good idea, but it provided fresh, healthy, locally grown (and practically free) food to people. Now, using sustainable permaculture techniques, we can grow even more food, in a smaller area, in a manner that uses less inputs.
We know how to grow food. Now, it is up to us to do it.
Food Security - Talking with Neighbors
Once one is growing food, it is a good time to look around to see who else is growing food, and to start talking about how nice it is to get outside, and to ask questions. By showing interest in others' gardens, the amount of food grown in the neighborhood is likely to increase. This, coupled with a discussion on how to set up a nice pantry, and good deals on bulk items, may help to increase the amount of food that neighbors grow and/or have on hand. In a situation where something does happen to the food distribution system, having neighbors who are also well prepared adds a level of security and helps to increase the ability to provide for mutual aide. In addition, it is nice to swap garden items.
The next step is working with a wider community to come up with ways to encourage community members to grow a nice variety of foods, and to make those available at a local grocery store or farmers market. Ultimately, a well prepared community would be able to switch over to a fully local food system at any moment in time, in order to provide for the basic food needs of the entire community. Such a system could be carefully designed by inviting stakeholders together to develop an "Emergency Local Food System Implementation Plan", or something similar.
Everything Else
The most important way to prepare for peak oil is to make sure that food is taken care of.
Security, water, shelter, heat, sanitation, medical, etc. are all important, but without some long term planning for food, the rest is of only temporary value. After all, we can't live more than a few weeks without food. No matter what happens in the future, having food in storage, and growing some as well, can provide a degree of independence beyond any other area of focus.
Victory Garden
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden
http://www.revivevictorygarden.org/
http://www.archive.org/details/victory_garden
http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe40s/crops_02.html
http://www.cityfarmer.org/grandpasVG.html
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/victorygarden/watch/index.html
Rose Chafers Info
Rose Chafer Beetle (Macrodactylus subspinosus)
http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/horticulture/M1198.html
http://bugguide.net/node/view/2884
http://wihort.uwex.edu/flowers/RoseChafers.htm
http://www.cooperseeds.com/rosecare.php3?cartid=
http://www.grapes.msu.edu/rosechafer.htm
http://msutoday.msu.edu/archive/?article=11Jul2002-3
http://www.ipm.msu.edu/stonefruit/rosechafer.htm
http://www.ipm.msu.edu/woodylandscape/rosechafer.htm
http://www.sactorose.org/ipm/84rosechafers.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrodactylus_subspinosus
http://www.virginiafruit.ento.vt.edu/chafer.html
http://bugguide.net/node/view/2884
http://www.forestryimages.org/browse/subthumb.cfm?sub=168&start=1