Peak Oil Action, Small Town Style - Aaron Wissner
Peak Oil Action, Small Town Style
Here is a another local newspaper article about me, Aaron Wissner, and the new organization I founded, Local Future. Also, below, are a short article on "understanding peak oil", and two letters to the editor, one by a person disputing peak oil and the other by me, Aaron Wissner, clarifying peak oil and the Hubbert peak predictions.
...
Middleville activist envisions 'Local Future'
Penasee Globe
Monday, February 11, 2008
By Charlotte Weick
WAYLAND - Aaron Wissner is known locally as a computer teacher at Wayland Union Middle School. His writings on topics of oil depletion and sustainability are gaining a wide audience. On Jan. 26 the Wall Street Journal featured a cover story about Wissner.
[Picture Caption] -- Aaron Wissner is spreading a message that might frighten many Americans: our planet's oil supply is limited and future "oil shock" could send communities into a tailspin.
The Middleville man is not preaching an apocalyptic message of gloom and doom, though. As the founder of a new non-profit organization, Local Future, Wissner is developing a networking system to help local communities transition from a dependence on oil to a sustainable future.
[Box Quote] -- "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know." Geophysicist M. King Hubbert (1903-1989)
Wissner was inspired to start Local Future after researching non-renewable resources and sustainability. Local Future's first charter group is based in Middleville. Within the next year, Wissner plans to start chapters in Grand Rapids, Wayland, Caledonia, and Hastings.
The group is hosting free films and a series of sustainability lectures. The organization is also planning the International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability, to be held May 30 through June 1 at Calvin College.
"Something is going on, and no one is telling us about it," Wissner said. "After over a decade of level gasoline prices, suddenly, over the past four years, prices have tripled."
Wissner has an explanation for the rising prices: global demand for oil is increasing but there has not been a corresponding increase in production.
"Unfortunately, if demand increases while supply remains the same, either prices must rise or shortages occur," Wissner said.
A stagnant oil supply could cause even higher prices at the pump by summer.
"Many people in West Michigan will really feel the pinch in the pocketbook this year, and should do what they can to adjust their budgets now," Wissner said.
Wissner teaches computer classes at Wayland Union Middle School. He is putting his computer and Web design skills to use, reaching a global audience. One of his online articles recently attracted the attention of an editor at the Wall Street Journal. On Jan. 12, journalist Neil King. Jr. traveled to Middleville from Washington to interview Wissner. King's Jan. 26 front-page article, "In a World Short Of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made," can be found at http://online.wsj.com/public/us.
Wissner created a Web site for Local Future, http://localfuture.org, which features a variety of resources, including articles and video presentations. On the site, Wissner explains that the mission of Local Future is to develop "compassionate, sustainable, local community systems to provide basic needs such as food, energy, transportation, money and jobs."
People must face the fact that the planet's oil supply is finite, Wissner said. Once they accept that reality, they can move on to a more self-sustaining future. Wissner's wife, software engineer Kimberly Sager, preserves produce from the family garden, and Wissner invests in gold, which he keeps in a safe deposit box. The couple modified their home with weather stripping to minimize heat loss and are stockpiling non-perishable food.
Wissner recommends that people minimize debt in order to prepare for higher gas prices, including eliminating credit card debt. He encourages purchasing fresh produce from local farmers, as buying local reduces the amount of fuel that trucks use to transport produce. It also supports local growers, Wissner said.
Rather than becoming depressed about issues like a dwindling oil supply or America's dependence on foreign oil, Wissner suggests people take positive action to help each other survive and thrive.
"Global problems can be solved at a local level," he said.
When asked what message he would give to candidates for the United States' presidency, he said they should make sustainability a national priority.
"It's good for the economy, good for the environment and good for the people," Wissner said.
Korten kicks off lecture series
Activist David Korten, author of "The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community" and "When Corporations Rule the World" will kick off a free lecture series sponsored by Local Future. The series will focus on the multiple aspects of sustainability and each lecture will be followed with a discussion. Korten will appear at 7 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 12 at the Thornapple Township Emergency Medical Services building, 128 High St., in Middleville. For more information about Local Future, or to reserve a seat for the lectures, contact Aaron Wissner at aaron@localfuture.org.
...
Original Penasee Globe Article about Local Future, Peak Oil, and Aaron Wissner
Note: This excellent local story was immediately followed by a separate article written about "understanding peak oil", which had one major error, confusing "earth" or global peak oil with "USA" peak oil. I didn't have any part in the writing of this story and would have immediately caught the error if I'd been asked to fact check it. (Also, for clarity, the David Korten event was a DVD.) Please read the "understanding peak oil" article below.
Understanding peak oil
Penasee Globe
by Charlotte Weick
Monday February 11, 2008
In 2008, Local Future-sponsored lectures and films will focus on peak oil. The theory of peak oil, also known as "Hubbert's Peak," is named after the late M. King Hubbert.
Hubbert, a geophysicist at the Shell Oil research lab in Houston, predicted that the earth's production of oil would reach its peak between 1965 and 1970 before sliding steadily into terminal decline.
In the 1940s, Hubbert's theories were not widely accepted but his writings now seem to echo those of modern day environmentalists. In a Feb. 4, 1949 article in Science, a technical journal, Hubbert said that the era of fossil fuel use is a "pip," rising sharply from zero to a maximum and almost as sharply declining.
Hubbert envisioned two futures for mankind, one being a future where energy is derived from alternative sources like solar power. The other is not so bright. "If we continue to depend heavily on fossil fuels and as the world's population explodes, we face, "exhaustion of resources and eventual decline."
Oil depletion is a sensitive topic and may be "the most important single issue facing the modern world" said Colin J. Campbell, president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). "The peak of oil discovery was passed in the 1960s and the world started using more than was found in new fields in 1981. The gap between discovery and production has widened since."
Scientists debate over the exact date of the peak, but that is not what matters most, Campbell said.
"What matters, and matters greatly, is the vision of the long remorseless decline that comes into sight on the other side of it," he said.
Original Penasee Globe Article on Hubbert Peak
...
Note: Ms. Weick writes a good article on peak oil, but gets one word wrong. The word "earth" should have been "USA". This probably confused some readers, and probably led to the letter below, which was published the following Monday, just in front of my clarification letter. Please continue reading below.
LETTER: Theories may confront non-existing problem
Penasee Globe
Monday February 18, 2008
Yet once more we are treated to a wide smorgasbord of far-reaching theories of sustainability, peak oil, and, of course, we must not forget global warming.
Mr. Wissner and Mrs. Weick have made so many good points: getting out of debt (Dave Ramsey would be delighted), raising your own garden and preserving food, etc. What an interesting combination of truth and lies! Thankfully (hopefully), we will still have enough freedom to pick out the truth from this smorgasbord.
They don't really discuss global warming, so let's leave that for now. But peak oil? In the '60s? You can't shove all the truth (oil) under the rug. At least you should show some scientific evidence; in this rather-long article, there was zero evidence. Don't forget the barely-tapped fields of Russia, Alberta, Sudan, and Alaska, just to mention a few. Do you know how many still-producing oil wells have been shut down in the United States? In addition, there is increasing evidence that the earth is still generating more oil as we speak.
Liberty is built on truth. Despotism needs lies. Are you sure that you are not working on a non-existing problem, Mr. Wissner?
Peter Nobel,
Dorr
Original Penasee Globe Letter to the Editor by Peter Nobel
...
Note: Mr. Nobel correctly points out that world peak oil did not occur in the 60's. He also brings up the often mentioned solutions of doing more drilling. This letter deserved a response, but since I'd already submitted a letter, to correct the Hubbert Peak error, I decided not to reply with yet another letter. I think the letter I did send in (read below), which was printed directly after Mr. Nobel's letter, answered most, but not all, of Nobel's concerns.
LETTER: Hubbert's second peak oil prediction is coming true
Penasee Globe
Monday February 18, 2008
Regarding last week's peak oil stories, gas prices will rise again in 2008.
Winter prices are normally the lowest of the year. In 2007, the lowest average U.S. price of gasoline was $2.14 per gallon (in January). This year, average prices have not dropped below $2.90. This implies we're looking at prices at least 75 cents higher this year.
The Department of Energy is predicting about 30-cent higher prices, and the DOE predictions are generally low.
Food prices, which rose 11 percent last year, will continue to rise, due both to increasing fuel prices and increasing demand for "food as fuel" (ethanol production).
It is time to adjust our personal budgets in preparation for rising prices.
Petroleum geologist Dr. M. King Hubbert made two predictions, which sometimes get confused with each other. In 1956, he predicted that the U.S.'s onshore, lower-48 oil extraction would peak between 1965 and 1972. This happened, as he predicted, with a maximum extraction rate in 1970-71 of almost 10 million barrels per day (it is now below 6 mbpd).
Dr. Hubbert later predicted that world oil production would peak in the 1990s. This probably would have been accurate if geopolitical issues hadn't caused the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. These shocks led to a global decrease in oil consumption, which pushed peak oil back about a decade. Hubbert didn't include natural gas in his predictions, the inclusion of which may push the liquid fuel's decline back a few years.
According to the government's 2005 report on peak oil, we are close enough to peak oil (within a 20 year window) that we must start a rapid, full-scale transition away from oil, if we hope to avoid severe economic shocks.
The free Sustainability Series will include live and film presentations. For Feb. 19, the topic will be "How to Save Money with Cheap Home Energy Retrofits."
On Feb. 26, Richard Heinberg's "Peak Everything: The Coming Century of Decline" will show. The events take place at the Thornapple Township Emergency Services Building at 128 High Street in Middleville.
For updates, visit LocalFuture.org.
Aaron Wissner,
Middleville
Original Penasee Globe Letter to the Editor by Aaron Wissner
...
Note: As I said above, while my letter didn't fully answer Mr. Nobel's letter, I do think it clarified what peak oil is, and isn't, and in particular the error about Dr. Hubbert's predictions. Overall, the four articles help raise awareness about peak oil, particularly amongst my students' parents. During parent conferences, the day after the original article published, I got several "good jobs" and "keep it ups" from both parents and colleagues. By the way, the government report I mentioned was the Hirsch Report.
Additional Reading
For additional reading on peak oil, the original Wall Street Journal peak oil article, other local follow up articles about me (Aaron Wissner), and my thoughts and actions on the issues of sustainability, I invite you to visit my full online journal at:
valuesystem.livejournal.com
Also, try checking out some of the web sites linked at the top of this page.
Thank you for reading!
Here is a another local newspaper article about me, Aaron Wissner, and the new organization I founded, Local Future. Also, below, are a short article on "understanding peak oil", and two letters to the editor, one by a person disputing peak oil and the other by me, Aaron Wissner, clarifying peak oil and the Hubbert peak predictions.
...
Middleville activist envisions 'Local Future'
Penasee Globe
Monday, February 11, 2008
By Charlotte Weick
WAYLAND - Aaron Wissner is known locally as a computer teacher at Wayland Union Middle School. His writings on topics of oil depletion and sustainability are gaining a wide audience. On Jan. 26 the Wall Street Journal featured a cover story about Wissner.
[Picture Caption] -- Aaron Wissner is spreading a message that might frighten many Americans: our planet's oil supply is limited and future "oil shock" could send communities into a tailspin.
The Middleville man is not preaching an apocalyptic message of gloom and doom, though. As the founder of a new non-profit organization, Local Future, Wissner is developing a networking system to help local communities transition from a dependence on oil to a sustainable future.
[Box Quote] -- "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know." Geophysicist M. King Hubbert (1903-1989)
Wissner was inspired to start Local Future after researching non-renewable resources and sustainability. Local Future's first charter group is based in Middleville. Within the next year, Wissner plans to start chapters in Grand Rapids, Wayland, Caledonia, and Hastings.
The group is hosting free films and a series of sustainability lectures. The organization is also planning the International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability, to be held May 30 through June 1 at Calvin College.
"Something is going on, and no one is telling us about it," Wissner said. "After over a decade of level gasoline prices, suddenly, over the past four years, prices have tripled."
Wissner has an explanation for the rising prices: global demand for oil is increasing but there has not been a corresponding increase in production.
"Unfortunately, if demand increases while supply remains the same, either prices must rise or shortages occur," Wissner said.
A stagnant oil supply could cause even higher prices at the pump by summer.
"Many people in West Michigan will really feel the pinch in the pocketbook this year, and should do what they can to adjust their budgets now," Wissner said.
Wissner teaches computer classes at Wayland Union Middle School. He is putting his computer and Web design skills to use, reaching a global audience. One of his online articles recently attracted the attention of an editor at the Wall Street Journal. On Jan. 12, journalist Neil King. Jr. traveled to Middleville from Washington to interview Wissner. King's Jan. 26 front-page article, "In a World Short Of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made," can be found at http://online.wsj.com/public/us.
Wissner created a Web site for Local Future, http://localfuture.org, which features a variety of resources, including articles and video presentations. On the site, Wissner explains that the mission of Local Future is to develop "compassionate, sustainable, local community systems to provide basic needs such as food, energy, transportation, money and jobs."
People must face the fact that the planet's oil supply is finite, Wissner said. Once they accept that reality, they can move on to a more self-sustaining future. Wissner's wife, software engineer Kimberly Sager, preserves produce from the family garden, and Wissner invests in gold, which he keeps in a safe deposit box. The couple modified their home with weather stripping to minimize heat loss and are stockpiling non-perishable food.
Wissner recommends that people minimize debt in order to prepare for higher gas prices, including eliminating credit card debt. He encourages purchasing fresh produce from local farmers, as buying local reduces the amount of fuel that trucks use to transport produce. It also supports local growers, Wissner said.
Rather than becoming depressed about issues like a dwindling oil supply or America's dependence on foreign oil, Wissner suggests people take positive action to help each other survive and thrive.
"Global problems can be solved at a local level," he said.
When asked what message he would give to candidates for the United States' presidency, he said they should make sustainability a national priority.
"It's good for the economy, good for the environment and good for the people," Wissner said.
Korten kicks off lecture series
Activist David Korten, author of "The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community" and "When Corporations Rule the World" will kick off a free lecture series sponsored by Local Future. The series will focus on the multiple aspects of sustainability and each lecture will be followed with a discussion. Korten will appear at 7 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 12 at the Thornapple Township Emergency Medical Services building, 128 High St., in Middleville. For more information about Local Future, or to reserve a seat for the lectures, contact Aaron Wissner at aaron@localfuture.org.
...
Original Penasee Globe Article about Local Future, Peak Oil, and Aaron Wissner
Note: This excellent local story was immediately followed by a separate article written about "understanding peak oil", which had one major error, confusing "earth" or global peak oil with "USA" peak oil. I didn't have any part in the writing of this story and would have immediately caught the error if I'd been asked to fact check it. (Also, for clarity, the David Korten event was a DVD.) Please read the "understanding peak oil" article below.
Understanding peak oil
Penasee Globe
by Charlotte Weick
Monday February 11, 2008
In 2008, Local Future-sponsored lectures and films will focus on peak oil. The theory of peak oil, also known as "Hubbert's Peak," is named after the late M. King Hubbert.
Hubbert, a geophysicist at the Shell Oil research lab in Houston, predicted that the earth's production of oil would reach its peak between 1965 and 1970 before sliding steadily into terminal decline.
In the 1940s, Hubbert's theories were not widely accepted but his writings now seem to echo those of modern day environmentalists. In a Feb. 4, 1949 article in Science, a technical journal, Hubbert said that the era of fossil fuel use is a "pip," rising sharply from zero to a maximum and almost as sharply declining.
Hubbert envisioned two futures for mankind, one being a future where energy is derived from alternative sources like solar power. The other is not so bright. "If we continue to depend heavily on fossil fuels and as the world's population explodes, we face, "exhaustion of resources and eventual decline."
Oil depletion is a sensitive topic and may be "the most important single issue facing the modern world" said Colin J. Campbell, president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). "The peak of oil discovery was passed in the 1960s and the world started using more than was found in new fields in 1981. The gap between discovery and production has widened since."
Scientists debate over the exact date of the peak, but that is not what matters most, Campbell said.
"What matters, and matters greatly, is the vision of the long remorseless decline that comes into sight on the other side of it," he said.
Original Penasee Globe Article on Hubbert Peak
...
Note: Ms. Weick writes a good article on peak oil, but gets one word wrong. The word "earth" should have been "USA". This probably confused some readers, and probably led to the letter below, which was published the following Monday, just in front of my clarification letter. Please continue reading below.
LETTER: Theories may confront non-existing problem
Penasee Globe
Monday February 18, 2008
Yet once more we are treated to a wide smorgasbord of far-reaching theories of sustainability, peak oil, and, of course, we must not forget global warming.
Mr. Wissner and Mrs. Weick have made so many good points: getting out of debt (Dave Ramsey would be delighted), raising your own garden and preserving food, etc. What an interesting combination of truth and lies! Thankfully (hopefully), we will still have enough freedom to pick out the truth from this smorgasbord.
They don't really discuss global warming, so let's leave that for now. But peak oil? In the '60s? You can't shove all the truth (oil) under the rug. At least you should show some scientific evidence; in this rather-long article, there was zero evidence. Don't forget the barely-tapped fields of Russia, Alberta, Sudan, and Alaska, just to mention a few. Do you know how many still-producing oil wells have been shut down in the United States? In addition, there is increasing evidence that the earth is still generating more oil as we speak.
Liberty is built on truth. Despotism needs lies. Are you sure that you are not working on a non-existing problem, Mr. Wissner?
Peter Nobel,
Dorr
Original Penasee Globe Letter to the Editor by Peter Nobel
...
Note: Mr. Nobel correctly points out that world peak oil did not occur in the 60's. He also brings up the often mentioned solutions of doing more drilling. This letter deserved a response, but since I'd already submitted a letter, to correct the Hubbert Peak error, I decided not to reply with yet another letter. I think the letter I did send in (read below), which was printed directly after Mr. Nobel's letter, answered most, but not all, of Nobel's concerns.
LETTER: Hubbert's second peak oil prediction is coming true
Penasee Globe
Monday February 18, 2008
Regarding last week's peak oil stories, gas prices will rise again in 2008.
Winter prices are normally the lowest of the year. In 2007, the lowest average U.S. price of gasoline was $2.14 per gallon (in January). This year, average prices have not dropped below $2.90. This implies we're looking at prices at least 75 cents higher this year.
The Department of Energy is predicting about 30-cent higher prices, and the DOE predictions are generally low.
Food prices, which rose 11 percent last year, will continue to rise, due both to increasing fuel prices and increasing demand for "food as fuel" (ethanol production).
It is time to adjust our personal budgets in preparation for rising prices.
Petroleum geologist Dr. M. King Hubbert made two predictions, which sometimes get confused with each other. In 1956, he predicted that the U.S.'s onshore, lower-48 oil extraction would peak between 1965 and 1972. This happened, as he predicted, with a maximum extraction rate in 1970-71 of almost 10 million barrels per day (it is now below 6 mbpd).
Dr. Hubbert later predicted that world oil production would peak in the 1990s. This probably would have been accurate if geopolitical issues hadn't caused the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. These shocks led to a global decrease in oil consumption, which pushed peak oil back about a decade. Hubbert didn't include natural gas in his predictions, the inclusion of which may push the liquid fuel's decline back a few years.
According to the government's 2005 report on peak oil, we are close enough to peak oil (within a 20 year window) that we must start a rapid, full-scale transition away from oil, if we hope to avoid severe economic shocks.
The free Sustainability Series will include live and film presentations. For Feb. 19, the topic will be "How to Save Money with Cheap Home Energy Retrofits."
On Feb. 26, Richard Heinberg's "Peak Everything: The Coming Century of Decline" will show. The events take place at the Thornapple Township Emergency Services Building at 128 High Street in Middleville.
For updates, visit LocalFuture.org.
Aaron Wissner,
Middleville
Original Penasee Globe Letter to the Editor by Aaron Wissner
...
Note: As I said above, while my letter didn't fully answer Mr. Nobel's letter, I do think it clarified what peak oil is, and isn't, and in particular the error about Dr. Hubbert's predictions. Overall, the four articles help raise awareness about peak oil, particularly amongst my students' parents. During parent conferences, the day after the original article published, I got several "good jobs" and "keep it ups" from both parents and colleagues. By the way, the government report I mentioned was the Hirsch Report.
Additional Reading
For additional reading on peak oil, the original Wall Street Journal peak oil article, other local follow up articles about me (Aaron Wissner), and my thoughts and actions on the issues of sustainability, I invite you to visit my full online journal at:
valuesystem.livejournal.com
Also, try checking out some of the web sites linked at the top of this page.
Thank you for reading!