In a World Short Of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made

[valuesystem]

In a World Short Of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made
Mr. Wissner of Middleville Stocks Up on Rice, Gold; No Faith in a 'Techno Fix'

Wall Street Journal; Page A1
January 26, 2008
By NEIL KING JR.

MIDDLEVILLE, Mich. -- It was around midnight one evening in November when Aaron Wissner shot up in bed, jolted awake by a fear: He wasn't fully ready for the

Comments

Peak Oil Aware versus Head In the Sand

[valuesystem]

In the extremely unlikely event anyone is reading these comments, over a week after the original article published, here is a tidbit of follow-up...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120174339319030681.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

And my response letter back to the editor... which will probably never be published; but I enjoyed writing it all the same...

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Peak Oil Aware versus Head In the Sand

Regarding “Bury the Gold, Plant Yams” (page 15, Jan 31), Mr. Pearson overlooks a core point of the article “In a World Short of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made" (page one, Jan. 26). Global oil extraction has been fixed at 84.5 million barrels per day (annualized) for nearly four years. Estimates of 1.5% annual growth predicted current production levels to now be over 89 mbpd. This 4.5 mbpd gap, between expected production and actual extraction, along with the anticipated demand growth, has led to the doubling of oil prices over the same period, and caused the inevitable stresses on the economy.

Characterizing peak oil aware individuals as fearful yam farmers, while hiding ones own head in the sand to dial out the limits of petroleum production, does nothing to help educate the public to the intense global economic and geopolitical pressures of oil plateau, or to the changes that will be necessary to adjust to the imminent and unavoidable decline in global oil supply.

Aaron Wissner
Middleville
Michigan

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Re: Peak Oil Aware versus Head In the Sand

[dtbrookes]

So I read the letter and your reply. The two really highlight the nature of the problem I have with the whole peak-oil/anti-peak-oil thing. You respond to this guy with data. But humans very rarely seem to make epistemological decisions based on data. The concept of a peak in oil production is good science, but those characters whose vision of the future involves "bugging out" in the woods with a stash of food, guns, and a box of ammunition, have been wanting to do that long before they heard about the concept of peak oil. They latch on to this new idea because it represents a possible path to the apocalypse that they long for, NOT because it is a tested/testable scientific hypothesis. Peak oil debunkers are then able to attack the peak oil concept because of the bunch of crazies that follow it. But that's what we humans almost always seem to do. Both sides of any debate seem to attack each other based on their opponents credentials rather than the veracity of the data either side is using. Which, for me, makes it all the harder to try and figure out a "sensible" course of action in almost every situation.

I must confess my own approach is far less courageous than yours. I tend to keep my head (for the most part) beneath the parapet. I don't proselytize, I don't discuss it, when I discuss it, I don't say much except point out that the 1972 predictions of the club of Rome are coming to haunt us. (I just say stuff like, "every self-respecting ecologist knows that the earth's biosphere cannot support the current world population") and for the most part people just ignore me and go about their everyday business, which is exactly what I intended. Sometimes they get very upset of course, and the start sputtering all sorts of lame excuses, which is even more fun when they have a PhD. Which just goes to show, even a PhD doesn't guarantee critical thinking skills.

But anyway, I'm waffling. The point is, I guess, that trying to reason with these people with data is a waste of time, and I probably spend way too much effort trying to not let that fact frustrate the living crap out of me. But man, it can drive me nuts.

The Complexities of Peak Oil Action

[valuesystem]

My approach to peak oil has several aspects.

First, the unlikely possibility of a catastrophic rapid collapse inspires me to make sure that we have the bare necessities at home. This, as a few commenters on other blogs have mentioned, is the same type of preparation that anyone would take for something they knew to be unlikely yet catastrophic, such as prepping for hurricanes on the Gulf & Atlantic coast, or having a tornado shelter in the Great Plains, or an escape route along flood prone riverbanks. That preparation is probably the easiest because it is things that an individual can do on their own simply by purchasing things, doing some thinking, and rearranging their home a bit.

Second, is the long term plan for living in a diminishing energy future. More likely than not, new goods and service will be much more expensive. In order to prepare for this, reducing one's demand for such items is the way to go. For example, having a long term strategy to work at or close to home reduces the need for "new" fuel or "new" transportation. Growing a bit of food at home reduces the need for buying "new" food at the store. (yes, that does sound strange as I can't think of what "old" food would be) Having a closet of comfortable well-fitting durable clothes, and knowing how to find good used clothing, is another way to reduce dependence on the "new".

The big vision in my mind is, while it is possible, to build a unique zero-energy home that not only can maintain a constant, comfortable temperature year round. One step beyond, that it is designed to provide its own heat for cooking and drying applications AND its own "cold" for cool storage, refrigeration and freezing. And, if at all possible, to provide its own renewable electricity generation without the use of PV, wind, hydro or bio energy sources. (I've written two long essays on this design so far, and it is, as far as I can tell, possible.)

Third, and perhaps finally, is the biggest and most important thing to do, which is to prepare the community to be able to respond and adapt to difficult times. As Mr. Pearson noted, if things got really bad, like Katrina, or an earthquake, or tsunami, or volcano, or war, or other disaster, then only community can provide security. In one recent documentary film "The Oil Factor", Iraqi's are interviewed about what they need. Even though they had mile long gas lines, regular power outages, and trouble getting fresh water, they all answered "security!, we need security!" The only way to have true security is to build community amongst our neighbors, families, friends, and all those we come in contact with. Thus, one benefit of providing community learning opportunities like free films, talks, lecture series, community access TV shows, letters to the editor, questions at public forums, press releases, and just asking about things like gas prices and making it from pay check to pay check, which are all great lead ins to the reality that we are at or near the decline of global oil extraction.

The frustrating thing about peak oil is that it is impossible to predict what exactly when particular things will happen. For example, one might think that the average price of oil will be higher in 2008 than 2007 due to the continued plateau of production, or even a decline... but that may not at all be the case due to the possibility of an equally uncomfortable global recession. So, we can't say, "of course oil will hit $130 this year", because if global oil demand slackens, and then even with decreasing extraction, the prices may remain the same or fall.

What we can say with certainty is that we continue to burn up the little oil we have, and there is less and less each day, and we will soon come to a point where extraction will begin decreasing, more than likely, year after year after year, forever. This makes talking to the press tricky because, like everyone, a simple prediction would be so much easier to understand, print, and explain.

Cheers,

Aaron

Re: The Complexities of Peak Oil Action

[dtbrookes]

Well I consider myself lucky in many respects. I can fix anything on a bicycle (except a broken frame, because I don't know how to weld). I can work with wood at pretty much any level, and I grew up with a vegetable garden, so I know how to grow my own food, make compost etc etc... I maintain those things because I enjoy doing them. There's nothing like cooking a meal made almost entirely from vegetables from the garden. I gain great pleasure from making stuff out of wood. And cycling, of course, is (sort of) my reason for existence. I feel ready for whatever happens. But you're right, one needs a community that is ready for difficult times and who will be able to pull together.