Peak Oil - Short Range Preparation for a Rapid Collapse
Recently, I've been thinking about my state of preparedness for a rapid collapse of the global economy. With the US dollar losing value, the housing bubble bursting, oil and gold prices relentlessly increasing, and a feeling that the peak oil buzz is going to soon cause the big investors to go into some sort of buying or selling frenzy, I have to say, that I'm feeling a bit nervous and worried.
Even more worrying was when I thought about what would happen to me and, more importantly, my infant son, if the worst happened. By the worse, I mean the EOSAWKI, the End Of Society As We Know It. The worst possibility for my family would be a total stock market crash, a permanent collapse of the dollar (hyperinflation), a collapse of all energy imports leading to all the pumps running dry, and a total blackout across the electric grid. Now which would come first, I'm not so sure. It could be any one of those. The point is that we are extremely vulnerable, and my family is almost totally unprepared for a rapid collapse, particularly in the winter.
The home were we live is out in the country. It was built about ten years ago, and is somewhat energy efficient. Even though it uses propane LPG for heat, it also needs electricity to run the furnace fan and, indeed, to start the propane burning. There is no fireplace, no electric resistance heat, and no other back up heat. If the power goes out in the winter, the house gets cold, and within a day or so, the pipes would begin to freeze.
If the electricity went out, we would be in a world of hurt. Our water comes from a well via an electric pump. Our cooking is in an electric oven, on an electric range, in a microwave oven, or on some other sort of kitchen electric heating device. Our refridgerator uses electric, as does our deep freeze. Depending on the time of year, things could get really bad fast.
I can imagine a future where the power went out for a very long time, months or even years. I certainly hope this doesn't happen, but the possibility of a power outage is very real, and in our home, it renders us nearly helpless in the winter time.
After giving it quite a bit of thought, we have finally agreed to invest in a back up electric supply for our home. No, it is not PV solar panels, a wind turbine, or a micro-hydro generator. Instead, it is a good ole off-the-shelf generator.
Yes, I said it, a generator.
These things come in all sizes, and all price levels. The price range for new is from $300 to $15,000. So which is the right size for us? It depends on our goals.
My goal is for my household to be able to survive for as long as possible in our house if the power goes out and refueling is unavailable.
One choice is a gasoline powered generator. At most, it has a ten gallon tank, which might last about one day. Even with 25 gallons of gas in storage, that is only a few more days. What if the power goes out for a week, or a month, or more? Do I really want to be left siting in a gas line, hoping I can buy some gas? What if the gas stations are closed? What if it is a winter storm and I can't get to the gas station?
I have ruled out the gasoline powered generator... It doesn't meet my goal.
The other choice is the "standby generator". This thing is permanently wired to the house, and to the propane LPG tank or the gas line. It comes on automatically when the power goes out, and stays on as long as the fuel lasts. Depending on the cost, it can power a few rooms, or an entire house.
Most homes where I live have 500 gallon LPG propane tanks. Each gallon of propane has about the same energy content as a gallon of gasoline. Woo, hoo! Which is more convenient, sitting at home with the standby generator doing its job, or trying to take my empty gas cans to the gas station (probably closed) twenty time? Uh huh, lets say YES to the big white tank!
A standby generator, that can provide 7,000 watts of power, will gobble up fuel at the rate of 1.5 gallons per hour; that's 36 gallons per day. If I could manange to keep the house's electicity usage under 3,500 watts, then it would use 20 gallons per day. The less electicity used, the less fuel used, and the more days we could live "off the grid", so to speak.
The reason to go with one of the smaller "standby generators", as opposed to the whole-house-as-if-the-grid-were-on models, is that a person would be trying to be using as little power as possible anyway. What use is would it be to have a "standby generator" that runs at full tilt for a week, and then chugs to a hault when the propane tank runs dry? No, a person in this situation would turn everything off that they didn't need in order to maximize the fuel economy.
What do I really need this generator to power?
1. Well pump
2. Furnace fan
3. Microwave
4. Deep freeze
5. Refridgerator
After that, the rest is luxury.
It would be nice to have some lights, some power for the computer, and perhaps even the washing machine... but with well water and the furnace, we could make it for a while. If we were really clever, we could even turn the generator off a lot of the time. The furnace fan only runs when the furnace is on... and the well pump only runs after we usewater. I like to think that we could get away with 10 gallons of fuel a day, and perhaps be able to life "off the grid" for a month or more.
The drawback, of course, is the price. Even for the small 7,000 watt model, a unit runs $2,000. If installed professionally, which is probably a must for everyone except the family electrician, the fee could run up to $1,500. Clearly, this is an investment that is not a spurt of the moment thing for most folks. In fact, if we had a fireplace and a hand pump, I probably would forego the thought of a standby generator, and just by the $300 special.
At this moment, whether it is a climate-change-induced horrible winter blizzard that knocks out the power and strands us at home... or a rapid collapse of the economy due to passing peak oil... my household is at high risk. At least with a "standby generator", we'll have a chance to weather the storm, be it is natural... or man made.
Even more worrying was when I thought about what would happen to me and, more importantly, my infant son, if the worst happened. By the worse, I mean the EOSAWKI, the End Of Society As We Know It. The worst possibility for my family would be a total stock market crash, a permanent collapse of the dollar (hyperinflation), a collapse of all energy imports leading to all the pumps running dry, and a total blackout across the electric grid. Now which would come first, I'm not so sure. It could be any one of those. The point is that we are extremely vulnerable, and my family is almost totally unprepared for a rapid collapse, particularly in the winter.
The home were we live is out in the country. It was built about ten years ago, and is somewhat energy efficient. Even though it uses propane LPG for heat, it also needs electricity to run the furnace fan and, indeed, to start the propane burning. There is no fireplace, no electric resistance heat, and no other back up heat. If the power goes out in the winter, the house gets cold, and within a day or so, the pipes would begin to freeze.
If the electricity went out, we would be in a world of hurt. Our water comes from a well via an electric pump. Our cooking is in an electric oven, on an electric range, in a microwave oven, or on some other sort of kitchen electric heating device. Our refridgerator uses electric, as does our deep freeze. Depending on the time of year, things could get really bad fast.
I can imagine a future where the power went out for a very long time, months or even years. I certainly hope this doesn't happen, but the possibility of a power outage is very real, and in our home, it renders us nearly helpless in the winter time.
After giving it quite a bit of thought, we have finally agreed to invest in a back up electric supply for our home. No, it is not PV solar panels, a wind turbine, or a micro-hydro generator. Instead, it is a good ole off-the-shelf generator.
Yes, I said it, a generator.
These things come in all sizes, and all price levels. The price range for new is from $300 to $15,000. So which is the right size for us? It depends on our goals.
My goal is for my household to be able to survive for as long as possible in our house if the power goes out and refueling is unavailable.
One choice is a gasoline powered generator. At most, it has a ten gallon tank, which might last about one day. Even with 25 gallons of gas in storage, that is only a few more days. What if the power goes out for a week, or a month, or more? Do I really want to be left siting in a gas line, hoping I can buy some gas? What if the gas stations are closed? What if it is a winter storm and I can't get to the gas station?
I have ruled out the gasoline powered generator... It doesn't meet my goal.
The other choice is the "standby generator". This thing is permanently wired to the house, and to the propane LPG tank or the gas line. It comes on automatically when the power goes out, and stays on as long as the fuel lasts. Depending on the cost, it can power a few rooms, or an entire house.
Most homes where I live have 500 gallon LPG propane tanks. Each gallon of propane has about the same energy content as a gallon of gasoline. Woo, hoo! Which is more convenient, sitting at home with the standby generator doing its job, or trying to take my empty gas cans to the gas station (probably closed) twenty time? Uh huh, lets say YES to the big white tank!
A standby generator, that can provide 7,000 watts of power, will gobble up fuel at the rate of 1.5 gallons per hour; that's 36 gallons per day. If I could manange to keep the house's electicity usage under 3,500 watts, then it would use 20 gallons per day. The less electicity used, the less fuel used, and the more days we could live "off the grid", so to speak.
The reason to go with one of the smaller "standby generators", as opposed to the whole-house-as-if-the-grid-were-on models, is that a person would be trying to be using as little power as possible anyway. What use is would it be to have a "standby generator" that runs at full tilt for a week, and then chugs to a hault when the propane tank runs dry? No, a person in this situation would turn everything off that they didn't need in order to maximize the fuel economy.
What do I really need this generator to power?
1. Well pump
2. Furnace fan
3. Microwave
4. Deep freeze
5. Refridgerator
After that, the rest is luxury.
It would be nice to have some lights, some power for the computer, and perhaps even the washing machine... but with well water and the furnace, we could make it for a while. If we were really clever, we could even turn the generator off a lot of the time. The furnace fan only runs when the furnace is on... and the well pump only runs after we usewater. I like to think that we could get away with 10 gallons of fuel a day, and perhaps be able to life "off the grid" for a month or more.
The drawback, of course, is the price. Even for the small 7,000 watt model, a unit runs $2,000. If installed professionally, which is probably a must for everyone except the family electrician, the fee could run up to $1,500. Clearly, this is an investment that is not a spurt of the moment thing for most folks. In fact, if we had a fireplace and a hand pump, I probably would forego the thought of a standby generator, and just by the $300 special.
At this moment, whether it is a climate-change-induced horrible winter blizzard that knocks out the power and strands us at home... or a rapid collapse of the economy due to passing peak oil... my household is at high risk. At least with a "standby generator", we'll have a chance to weather the storm, be it is natural... or man made.