To My Son -- On Your Future
So, my son, you may be wondering the answer. What is going on here, exactly? Well, that is the question you should be thinking anyway... if only you were a bit older, and more mature... I guess six-weeks is a bit young, but let me try to put it in simple terms.
We live in a place where practically everyone around us lives with the expectation of a future that will never come. We are all under a delusion that the direction we are headed is South, when in fact, we are headed Nouth. Unfortunately, the weather is such that we have not noticed that we are going in the wrong direction. And, in fact, when someone tells us we are going the wrong way, and we just point to the path behind us and say, "look, if we go that way, we will be going backwards!"
Okay, so this may be a bit obscure, but let me put it in more simple terms: being alive means consuming energy. Taking concentrated, high value energy, and using it up... spreading it out... releasing it. And we, this civilization headed North, we are using it up at a rate unlike anyone ever before.
If our lifetime were a cold, snowy winter... and we had only enough wood to make it to the spring... then what we are doing now is akin to burning the wood as fast as we can... because we believe that someone will refill the pile for us before winter ends.
So, my son, can I get anymore cryptic than that? Let me try again.
Almost everyone alive... every human, that is... believes that the future will be one of improved, more advanced technology... better medicine... cures for pain and diseases... the eventual end to war... the increase of confort for all... the end of hunger... and a future which promises a better, more happy and healthy future for all our children.
Still too cryptic? Hmm... okay. Let me give an example.
You know how I always was looking forward to going into outerspace? A vacation to the moon? Perhaps a flight into orbit? A life full of trips to other nations and lands? A car that would get 100 miles per gallon? Basically free (inexpensive) food, water, medicine, housing, and etc.? You know, progress?
Well, it is not going to happen. Nope, not gonna. No chance in hell.
Why?
Because, we humans discovered a very limited amount of energy-rich liquid called oil, we discovered ways to harness that energy, we are using it up as rapidly as we can find it, and it is on the edge of running out. Well, not running out precisely, but let's think of it this way.
Take yourself. We all know that you have been drinking more milk every day. Sure, some days you might eat a little less, but then you usually make up for it the next day.
Well, let's say that a few days from now, the milk supply starts to decrease. Yes, I know you were up to 30 ounces per day... but there will only be 29... and after a few days, there will only be 28... and after a few more days, there will only be 27.
What will happen to you, do you think? You probably aren't going to grow as much are you? Well, you have been eating pretty well, so you might not notice at first. Perhaps you will slim down a bit. Or maybe you will be a bit less energetic. Or maybe you will grow a bit less. So at first, it may not seem like a very bit deal... but don't forget that your body was expecting 30 to become 31... and 31 to become 32. Perhaps in not so long, you will start feeling some discomfort, some hunger.
In the beginning, you will fuss. You will try to get more. In fact, you will make a ruckus until you get fed, and you will feed like a mad-man until you are full. You will be afraid that the next feeding won't come for a long while. You may even only get 90% of what you wanted. Maybe you will never be full again.
Each day, the situation will get worse. Eventually, the 30 ounces a day will become 20. And if things aren't bad yet... that 20 will head towards 10. I'm afraid, you will stop growing all together. You will lose all your strength. Even the ability to cry will be gone. You will become suseptible to disease. You will look ugly, thin, and gaunt. You will be on the way to death from thirst or starvation.
That is exactly what is happening in the world today. We are used to 85 million barrels of oil, per day, into our civilization. But the oil is being used up, and soon the flow will slow down. First to 84... then to 83... and then on down to 70, 60, 50, 40... and this will come as a great shock to civilization, for there is no solution. Civilization, as we know it, will shrivel, starve, shrink... and perhaps may die.
Of course, a civilization is made up of individual persons, just as a single person is made up of cells. Each individual person, depending on their understanding of the situation, will have a different reaction, and different ability to cause things to happen. Collectively, some groups will be able influence others. Just like the body will save warmth and energy for core organs... letting the extremities die... So may our civilization contract inward, allowing the outer fringes, the least necessary, to make due without energy. After all, energy is necessary for life, and the heart must keep on beating.
I certainly hope that this transition will be very slow and gradual, but that is rarely what happens as these types of changes typically build slowly until a breaking point. What will happen? Will there be chaos? Will governments survive? Will neighbors remain kind? Can the great cities, the energy hogs of our civilization, survive?
Keep this in mind... we are deeply a part of civilization. Almost all of our food comes from hundreds of miles away. Our water and heat as well, considering that the electicity for pumping the water came from coal.
Imagine that there is no fuel... heating fuel, transportation fuel... and as a consequence, no food... and that there is no electricity... and thus no water or heat. Then imagine that money, this constuct that we imbibe with value by simple mutual agreement with others, may also lose all value. To summarize...
Imagine a mega-city in winter, full of people... no money, no food, no water, no electricity, no heat... what will the people do.
Yes, this may be the worst case scenario... perhaps it will happen a little at a time. Or perhaps, it will not happen for five or ten years... but the reality is that there is only so much milk... so much oil... and we have used so much that the waning years are coming. We are now at the full moon, with much light, but we are headed toward the new moon of darkness... and few, if any, know.
Good luck, my son. I doubt you will ever read this... but perhaps in writing it, I can help myself to find a way to help you, and humanity, to survive.
We live in a place where practically everyone around us lives with the expectation of a future that will never come. We are all under a delusion that the direction we are headed is South, when in fact, we are headed Nouth. Unfortunately, the weather is such that we have not noticed that we are going in the wrong direction. And, in fact, when someone tells us we are going the wrong way, and we just point to the path behind us and say, "look, if we go that way, we will be going backwards!"
Okay, so this may be a bit obscure, but let me put it in more simple terms: being alive means consuming energy. Taking concentrated, high value energy, and using it up... spreading it out... releasing it. And we, this civilization headed North, we are using it up at a rate unlike anyone ever before.
If our lifetime were a cold, snowy winter... and we had only enough wood to make it to the spring... then what we are doing now is akin to burning the wood as fast as we can... because we believe that someone will refill the pile for us before winter ends.
So, my son, can I get anymore cryptic than that? Let me try again.
Almost everyone alive... every human, that is... believes that the future will be one of improved, more advanced technology... better medicine... cures for pain and diseases... the eventual end to war... the increase of confort for all... the end of hunger... and a future which promises a better, more happy and healthy future for all our children.
Still too cryptic? Hmm... okay. Let me give an example.
You know how I always was looking forward to going into outerspace? A vacation to the moon? Perhaps a flight into orbit? A life full of trips to other nations and lands? A car that would get 100 miles per gallon? Basically free (inexpensive) food, water, medicine, housing, and etc.? You know, progress?
Well, it is not going to happen. Nope, not gonna. No chance in hell.
Why?
Because, we humans discovered a very limited amount of energy-rich liquid called oil, we discovered ways to harness that energy, we are using it up as rapidly as we can find it, and it is on the edge of running out. Well, not running out precisely, but let's think of it this way.
Take yourself. We all know that you have been drinking more milk every day. Sure, some days you might eat a little less, but then you usually make up for it the next day.
Well, let's say that a few days from now, the milk supply starts to decrease. Yes, I know you were up to 30 ounces per day... but there will only be 29... and after a few days, there will only be 28... and after a few more days, there will only be 27.
What will happen to you, do you think? You probably aren't going to grow as much are you? Well, you have been eating pretty well, so you might not notice at first. Perhaps you will slim down a bit. Or maybe you will be a bit less energetic. Or maybe you will grow a bit less. So at first, it may not seem like a very bit deal... but don't forget that your body was expecting 30 to become 31... and 31 to become 32. Perhaps in not so long, you will start feeling some discomfort, some hunger.
In the beginning, you will fuss. You will try to get more. In fact, you will make a ruckus until you get fed, and you will feed like a mad-man until you are full. You will be afraid that the next feeding won't come for a long while. You may even only get 90% of what you wanted. Maybe you will never be full again.
Each day, the situation will get worse. Eventually, the 30 ounces a day will become 20. And if things aren't bad yet... that 20 will head towards 10. I'm afraid, you will stop growing all together. You will lose all your strength. Even the ability to cry will be gone. You will become suseptible to disease. You will look ugly, thin, and gaunt. You will be on the way to death from thirst or starvation.
That is exactly what is happening in the world today. We are used to 85 million barrels of oil, per day, into our civilization. But the oil is being used up, and soon the flow will slow down. First to 84... then to 83... and then on down to 70, 60, 50, 40... and this will come as a great shock to civilization, for there is no solution. Civilization, as we know it, will shrivel, starve, shrink... and perhaps may die.
Of course, a civilization is made up of individual persons, just as a single person is made up of cells. Each individual person, depending on their understanding of the situation, will have a different reaction, and different ability to cause things to happen. Collectively, some groups will be able influence others. Just like the body will save warmth and energy for core organs... letting the extremities die... So may our civilization contract inward, allowing the outer fringes, the least necessary, to make due without energy. After all, energy is necessary for life, and the heart must keep on beating.
I certainly hope that this transition will be very slow and gradual, but that is rarely what happens as these types of changes typically build slowly until a breaking point. What will happen? Will there be chaos? Will governments survive? Will neighbors remain kind? Can the great cities, the energy hogs of our civilization, survive?
Keep this in mind... we are deeply a part of civilization. Almost all of our food comes from hundreds of miles away. Our water and heat as well, considering that the electicity for pumping the water came from coal.
Imagine that there is no fuel... heating fuel, transportation fuel... and as a consequence, no food... and that there is no electricity... and thus no water or heat. Then imagine that money, this constuct that we imbibe with value by simple mutual agreement with others, may also lose all value. To summarize...
Imagine a mega-city in winter, full of people... no money, no food, no water, no electricity, no heat... what will the people do.
Yes, this may be the worst case scenario... perhaps it will happen a little at a time. Or perhaps, it will not happen for five or ten years... but the reality is that there is only so much milk... so much oil... and we have used so much that the waning years are coming. We are now at the full moon, with much light, but we are headed toward the new moon of darkness... and few, if any, know.
Good luck, my son. I doubt you will ever read this... but perhaps in writing it, I can help myself to find a way to help you, and humanity, to survive.