Oil, Smoke & Mirrors - Starting the Peak Oil Conversation
On Thursday, a group of about twenty people got together to view and discuss the independant film "Oil, Smoke & Mirrors". I had the pleasure of facilitating a discussion following a viewing.
The film features a series of interview clips from eleven people. The interview questions center around three things, 1. peak oil, 2. 9/11, and 3. the connection between the two.
The film argues that knowledge of the peak oil (the eventual permanent decline in the global oil supply) motivated the US government to develop a plan to "secure" the oil fields of the middle east, and further, to have instigated the events of 9/11.
Richard Heinberg, one of the interviewees, and an author of three books on peak oil, points out that while connections to 9/11 are intriguing, there is no smoking gun that proves a connection.
I personally am in that camp. I know that peak oil will happen. I know that many in the government were aware of it. I suspect the primary unspoken reason for invading the middle east is to ensure the US is supplied with oil. But I am unable to find any hard evidence that our government actually did anything to facilitate the events of 9/11. I think the foreign policy and global economy could have been enough of a motivation for someone to attack the World Trade Center and Pentagon. That said, I support a new and fuller investigation of 9/11.
The primary effectiveness of the film was raising the issue of peak oil, as well as the possible consequences. The film interviews Colin Campbell, Julian Darley, Paul Roberts, who all speak primarily about peak oil and the economics behind it. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed, Andreas Von Buelow, Philip J. Berg, Christopher Bollyn, David Shayler, Webster G. Tarpley speak later in the film about the middle east and 9/11. Extensive clips from interviews with Richard Heinberg, Michael Meacher, and Chris Sanders are interspersed throughout, regarding both peak oil and 9/11.
Overall, I would recommend this film as a starting point for conversations regarding peak oil, and also the events of 9/11. I would not, however, expect or suggest that anyone take the film at face value. Thinking things through, and doing additional reading, is the only way to get to the truth.
"Oil, Smoke & Mirrors" - Discussion
The film "Oil, Smoke and Mirrors" runs about 50 minutes, and we viewed the extras by Heinburg and Darley. After a 10 minute break, the discussion time lasted 80 minutes. The program started at 7 p.m. and ended before 10 p.m., which seemed to work well for everyone.
What follows is the basic order of the discussion, including extensive quotes from the participants.
1. Circle up the chairs, so no one was behind anyone else.
2. Introduce myself, and attempt to tell a joke
3. Go around the circle and have everyone share their name and background
4. Set ground rule of letting everyone have a chance to speak to each of a series of questions, without responding to each other
5. Pose the following three questions, giving sufficient time for each.
"What struck you from this film?"
* "How are we going to get the ordinary people to understand that [the so-called terrorists are not coming after us]?"
* "If this [film] were on television, we would a lot of people behind it, but we don't have the airways, so how can we start a movement?"
* "What are the consequences of both what our government and what the corporations... what is happening with peak oil? Heinberg was talking a little about capitalism, about growth and about this system with is basically the Federal Reserve System of loaning out money and getting back interest and that's the only way that money can grow. So those comments were more meaningful to me on what happens now, what happens next, how does this work, and why are they doing this, why are we doing this, and in order to keep the wheels greased, you've got to keep the loans out there, you've got to keep the interest coming in and those corporations making profits."
* "What do I do? How can I prepare for this? How can I help my family prepare for this? What do I invest in? What do I change my investments to?"
* (In reference to the book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed") -- "I get the sense that our country and the modern world as we know it is headed to be one of those collapses, and extraordinarily drops in size. When Heinberg talks about the idea of growth being the engine that drives our economy. When the stock market hears that a company is one cent under their projected earnings, their stock drops, dramatically at times. It's just unfathomable to me what can happen, and what likely will happen, once the economy, the people, the companies understand that growth is no longer possible. Sustainability will be the hoped for goal. But there will be so much collapsing in on itself that it will be out of control. I am also very concerned about what our children and our grandchildren will be facing and very interested in trying to understand how to best prepare and protect them for it, as well as, tell as many people as I possibly can in ways that hopefully they'll understand or listen to. ... I'm not at all surprised that gasoline is $3.50 per gallon, I'm just wondering what our reaction will be, as a country, when the price is $6 per gallon."
* "It's like getting down the river towards Niagara Falls. We're probably getting to the point where we can hear the falls."
* "A very short section on oil, and a big section on 9/11. I know the connection and I can see the connection. I expected more of the oil thing. Solutions on how we can cut it back and use and what we could do and solutions for what the things are. I didn't get it. ... I'd like to have seen more on the oil."
"How would most people respond if gas increased, over the period of a year, to $13 a gallon?"
( See my earlier article about $13 gasoline.)
* "Cut your trips. Drive a lot less. Maybe move where there is public transportation. Get a horse. Ride a bike."
* "But the bigger question is, what will the country do? It's good thing that gasoline is going up. People don't like it, but it's a good thing. What will happen is, we will see a lot of innovation. ... [Explaination of Phoenix Motorcars] ... If gasoline keeps going up, we'll see a whole lot of innovation."
* "I think you overestimate it. We're spoiled brats. We are not going to step outside our comfort zone. I still see people driving all over the place in big trucks. I know plenty of people who will tell me today, they drive an SUV, and I'll say 'why do you do this', you complain about the - 'because I like to sit up high'. (laugher) I'm serious."
* "My sense is that, in the process, while that's happening, they'll be a lot of unrest going on. As people find that they can't get to work, or they can't get to food, or they can get to where food used to be, or it isn't there regularly. I'm concerned that there is going to be a lot of unrest, and that's maybe labeling in kindly. I just can see people stealing from each other. If somebody's got seemingly a supply of food, they are likely to be threatened by it. I don't know when this may occur. But I think it can, or likely, can happen."
* "I'm not that concerned about myself individually, with gas prices going up. My concern is, what are all these poor people going to do? What about food? Crushing for a lot of people."
* "We're spoiled rotten. The people here, you guys understand. But do you know what a tiny minority you are? Everywhere I go, everyday, I look and see just things that amaze me. And people don't want to hear it. ... It is our fault. You can put the truth in front of people. If they don't want to hear it, they'll brush you aside and keep doing - it's like the smoker, who says, 'Well, I dunno know. Nobody's proved to me that smoking is the cause of lung cancer.' And they don't quit until it is to late. That's what's going to happen to us. And all we get to do is say, 'I told you so'."
* "How is this great country going to react when we can't do - we are so, so spoiled."
* "I think people are going to have a lot of trouble being cold. It's one thing not to be able to drive to [the big city], but to sit home in a cold house, that's going to be shocking."
"How are gasoline price increases impacting Michigan?"
* "Well, I'm facing everyday, people who will say, that "your economy in Michigan is extremely bad". And I answer back, that the east side of the state is horrendous, and its impacted by the idea that the cars that they are building do not work well at $3.50 per gallon, and they are going out of business, and people are losing their jobs like crazy."
* "I have a real sense of unease about the future. ... every month I have this sense of dread that the whole damn thing is going to fall apart. Even though, on a day to day basis, we are doing fine. I do feel sorry for the low income people. ... Some folks are just struggling."
* "Over the last five, six years, we now have just a tremendous explosion of legal notices, and the majority of those legal notices are indeed foreclosures. ...we make dumb decisions, and we don't learn from those dumb decisions. ...part of the problem was last November and December, and the gasoline went down to $1.99. Sales of Prius's went down. We're back in business, here we go. And now, it's back to this. And people are in denial, just like global warming. We have this spoiled society that is not paying attention. ...they work hard all day and when they come home, they don't want to be bummed out, they just want to go off in fantasy land and veg-out in front of the TV."
* "It's not fair to blame the people. The people are victims of the marketing they are fed. So in some way we need to reach the people and I think that they will get behind it."
6. After each question, before moving on to the next, I posed the question again and asked if anyone else wanted to chime in.
7. Talk about Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on peak oil. See this summary.
8. Go around the circle again and have anyone share whatever they like.
Final Remarks
* "I can see things starting to trickle up in price already. My haircuts went up $2. Things in the grocery store are starting to go up a little bit more. It's going to continue to rise, because it is going to cost more to get things wherever. I think we should try our best to buy local. The farmer's markets are open [now]."
* "How can we get the word out there more?"
* "I think we are a society that moves on crisis. It has to be a crisis before something happens. So, bring on the crisis."
* "I enjoy the discussions more than the movie. I really like to hear everyone's opinion about different things. I think that the discussions are really good cause I think it starts you thinking about things, that you normally maybe wouldn't think about. I really believe that we can invent our way out of this situation."
* "When we talk about television and marketing, they deliberately lie to you to get you to do something that you normally wouldn't do, that's the game."
* "I enjoyed the film, and enjoy all of us discussing it, and the highlight of my month is coming here. I really enjoy it, no matter what we are showing."
* "Support what you believe in. ...unplug from that damn TV."
* "One of the books I read a year or so ago is called "The Long Emergency". I think that everybody should read it because it talks about the coming together of the peak oil, the global climate change, the Katrina's, the wars, and then even the things like the bird flus, which could become different pandemics. The coming together of these things is going to create enormous havoc in our lives. He is, granted, on the edge of saying that this is the worst case scenario, but he says it so effectively and persuasively, that I think this could be a book that everybody could at least read to understand some of the gravity."
9. Finish up by mentioning "Peak Oil Awareness" and "Relocalization Network" groups.
Overall, this is a very good discussion. It would be interesting to have another discussion of peak oil, perhaps around the film "The End of Suburbia" or "Oil Crash: A Crude Awakening". It would also be interesting to repeat this event in a different city, as it was current, high interest and a great discussion.
People in the Film - "Oil, Smoke and Mirrors"
Peak Oil - I am familiar with these four folks. I have chatted (briefly) with both Heinberg and Darley, and have seen live talks on peak oil by both. Colin Campbell is probably the most well respected person regarding peak oil in the world. Paul Roberts's book was mentioned as a "must read" by Al Gore.
Richard Heinberg - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Heinberg
Colin Campbell - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Campbell_(geologist)
Julian Darley - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Darley
Paul Roberts - http://the-end-of-oil.com/
9/11 Truth - I do not know any of these individuals. I am providing links for them so that you, the reader, can learn more about them.
Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nafeez_Mosaddeq_Ahmed
Andreas Von Buelow - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andreas_Von_Buelow
Philip J. Berg - http://www.911forthetruth.com/
Christopher Bollyn - http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/columnist.asp?ID=6
David Shayler - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Shayler
Webster Tarplay - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Webster_Tarpley
Micahel Meacher - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Meacher