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valuesystem

Peak Oil Now? New Data Leads to Speculation

May 11, 2007 19:00

New data from the U.S. government shows something disturbing. An analysis of the data suggests that we may be looking at the peak of oil production, right now.

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resources, peakoil, oil, oil depletion, deflation, supply, gas, peak oil, gas prices, oil crisis, gasoline prices, oil supply, energy supply, economy, demand, fossil fuels, gasoline, energy demand, economics, inflation, energy crisis, stagflation

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Re: a long peak? valuesystem May 20 2007, 20:33:22 UTC

I don't know about the depth of drilling. My understanding is that if oil is found at a certain level, then it usually isn't found in a much deeper level. In any event, the USA is only extracting 5 million barrels per day, compared to about 10 million barrels per day in 1970. Even if there were additional oil to find in the states, it would not prevent peak oil. I suspect that if the oil companies thought there was oil to find in Texas, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, then there would be crews drilling for it.

I also hope that the rate of peak and decline doesn't screw things up to quickly. Colin Campbell, the top oil geologist around peak oil, seems to think that when we do peak, it may be a gradual change, and it may look more like a plateau. He believes that the oil prices will go up and down, and each time they are up for a prolonged period of time, they will lead to anything from a "growth recession" to an all out global recession. I believe his film, "Peak Oil: Imposed by Nature" goes into this.

This question about Texas and the midwest would be best answered by a domestic oil geologist, although I don't personally know any.

Below 20,000 feet, oil cooks to natural gas valuesystem May 22 2007, 18:59:37 UTC

Hi,

Go read Kenneth Deffeyes book "Hubbert's Peak" for a primer on oil formation. Generally, sedimentary rocks containing keragin that are lowered to between 20,000 and 25,000 feet "cook" into oil from the extreme heat and pressure. Below 25,000 feet, oil breaksdown into natural gas. So when you hear folks say "We'll drill deeper.", it assumes that there IS oil much father down. And that violates the laws of physics.

Also, as you alluded to, if the oil companies thought there was oil in Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania, there would be crews drilling for it. This country has an EXCELLENT USGS which has surveyed the country for energy resources. We have been intensely studying US geology for the past 175 years for coal and oil. We know the landscape, we know the geology underneath the landscape. The big ones are all gone. What's left are little ones here and there. We'll get them but they will be too expensive to burn. What will we use them for? One word: Plastics.

Charles

Re: Below 20,000 feet, oil cooks to natural gas valuesystem May 22 2007, 20:29:48 UTC

Hi Charles,

Thanks for the reminder. I believe I have Deffeyes book on the shelf. Sounds like time for me to freshen up on it. I personally have a difficult time staying focused on peak oil, and holding down a full time job, family, etc. which requires a totally different kind of thinking.

I agree with your post, and am intrigued by your plastics comment. It may very well be that hydrocarbon molecules from petroleum will eventually be used only as feed stocks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum#Uses

I am curious if there are substitute sources of those hydrocarbon molecules that might be easier to get at -- perhaps from biological products?

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