Television: A plausible business model...or not?
I have this idea, and I would really love to hear what people think of it.
I was reading this entry from Imfallingup earlier, and it got me to thinking.
Picture that in the next two years, television ceases to be what we see it as now. Obviously that's not hard to picture, because it's already changed so much and will continue to do so at an accelerated rate. But imagine that there are no longer endless hours of programming that you could care less about. There is no longer such a thing as cable and channel groupings based on how much you can pay.
Instead, everyone has a DVR and you pay by program or by episode, discounted by volume. Say $1 per episode or $50 for 100 epsisodes, divided as you like among however many programs you'd like to watch. You could also buy an entire season of one show for a rate of $.60 per episode or something. News, political coverage, and educational clearinghouse shows could still be offered for free or for a nominal package price.
Advantages: Networks could have automatic and accurate ratings results sooner, allowing them to spend more money on shows that people are interested in, and halt filming of things that ordinarily would be cancelled halfway through a season. Example: If only 1,000 people nationwide are interested in the concept of "I love NY," there would never be a need to film a single episode, and instead spend that money on filming better quality episodes of "30 Rock," which perhaps has a base following of 1,000,000 viewers.
Another advantage would be that more shows could be available. Right now, a show might need 1,000,000 viewers to stay on the air, but with this new system a show with a following of maybe 700,000 viewers could still stay on the air, though it's staff would make slightly less than the show with 1,000,000 viewers, and thusly could have a longer run time to attract more viewers.
Disadvantages: If you happen to be one of the 1,000 viewers that would like to see episodes of "I love NY," it's likely that you would not get the chance to see your desired program, and would instead be forced to spend your pre-purchased episodes on a different program that you might be less excited about.
Also, it would be more difficult to organize union contracts, as everyone would be payed based on a viewer interest. This could be problematic for actors and crew-members, as they would have to be more involved in picking shows that they thought had a better chance of staying on air. This could also cause problems with writers, as there would be more pressure from other staff to make sure that the show remains watchable and doesn't deviate too far from it's original feel.
It might create a demand for higher advertising budgets, since Networks would still have to convince you that you will like their new shows. They could offer trial subscriptions for shows that have already been established, like 3 episodes for 1 dollar, and if you decided to buy the season it's an additional $10 for 20 epsiodes, or some such. New shows might still require that pilot episodes be made, but the higher income for hit shows would probably make up for the shows that get scrapped because there isn't enough interest.
There would also be a need for better security, to avoid theft of episodes or programs, since income would be more affected by individual sales. A time-stamp could be created that would allow you to have an episode only for a month, and recording would be restricted, but you could receive an episode free of time stamp or a recordable episode for an additional fee of $.30 an episode, or something similar.
The demand for DVDs would be eliminated completely, since people could just buy their own blanks and record from their DVRs, which means fewer jobs for large conglomerates like Best Buy or Virgin Megastores that make a lot of money off of their DVD sales, but it would create more jobs for tech support and hardware sales, as a larger number of people are now buying DVRs and DVD-Rs. Whether companies see this as an opportunity to downsize or restructure is entirely an independent position, and I realize what is more likely to happen.
The cable industry would likely remain unchanged, as people would still be required to purchase episode packages through their local cable services, and service people would still be required to come and hook up equipment.
The entertainment industry would blossom, because there would no longer be a limited number of hours that a station could fill with programming, and they would be able to provide more experimental programming from new and independent artists. Struggling actors and writers could be offered more chances to break into the industry, while more established members of the industry could be more selective about the projects that they want to work on.
I don't know if it could work, and I certainly haven't fleshed out all of the details in my head. It's just something that I started to think about, and I wondered if anyone else has thought much about it. Especially with people now buying episodes of shows on itunes and networks offering full episodes on their websites for a week after a show airs, doesn't it seem like we're kinda moving in that direction? Besides that, how many people do any of you know (in your age bracket - your parents don't count) that don't already have some kind of DVR?
What is the new direction for television?
Edit: Please no comments on the figures used in this post. They are purely hypothetical, come from no source other than my imagination and reflect nothing about the actual industry. Sometimes you just need a little bit of illustration.
I was reading this entry from Imfallingup earlier, and it got me to thinking.
Picture that in the next two years, television ceases to be what we see it as now. Obviously that's not hard to picture, because it's already changed so much and will continue to do so at an accelerated rate. But imagine that there are no longer endless hours of programming that you could care less about. There is no longer such a thing as cable and channel groupings based on how much you can pay.
Instead, everyone has a DVR and you pay by program or by episode, discounted by volume. Say $1 per episode or $50 for 100 epsisodes, divided as you like among however many programs you'd like to watch. You could also buy an entire season of one show for a rate of $.60 per episode or something. News, political coverage, and educational clearinghouse shows could still be offered for free or for a nominal package price.
Advantages: Networks could have automatic and accurate ratings results sooner, allowing them to spend more money on shows that people are interested in, and halt filming of things that ordinarily would be cancelled halfway through a season. Example: If only 1,000 people nationwide are interested in the concept of "I love NY," there would never be a need to film a single episode, and instead spend that money on filming better quality episodes of "30 Rock," which perhaps has a base following of 1,000,000 viewers.
Another advantage would be that more shows could be available. Right now, a show might need 1,000,000 viewers to stay on the air, but with this new system a show with a following of maybe 700,000 viewers could still stay on the air, though it's staff would make slightly less than the show with 1,000,000 viewers, and thusly could have a longer run time to attract more viewers.
Disadvantages: If you happen to be one of the 1,000 viewers that would like to see episodes of "I love NY," it's likely that you would not get the chance to see your desired program, and would instead be forced to spend your pre-purchased episodes on a different program that you might be less excited about.
Also, it would be more difficult to organize union contracts, as everyone would be payed based on a viewer interest. This could be problematic for actors and crew-members, as they would have to be more involved in picking shows that they thought had a better chance of staying on air. This could also cause problems with writers, as there would be more pressure from other staff to make sure that the show remains watchable and doesn't deviate too far from it's original feel.
It might create a demand for higher advertising budgets, since Networks would still have to convince you that you will like their new shows. They could offer trial subscriptions for shows that have already been established, like 3 episodes for 1 dollar, and if you decided to buy the season it's an additional $10 for 20 epsiodes, or some such. New shows might still require that pilot episodes be made, but the higher income for hit shows would probably make up for the shows that get scrapped because there isn't enough interest.
There would also be a need for better security, to avoid theft of episodes or programs, since income would be more affected by individual sales. A time-stamp could be created that would allow you to have an episode only for a month, and recording would be restricted, but you could receive an episode free of time stamp or a recordable episode for an additional fee of $.30 an episode, or something similar.
The demand for DVDs would be eliminated completely, since people could just buy their own blanks and record from their DVRs, which means fewer jobs for large conglomerates like Best Buy or Virgin Megastores that make a lot of money off of their DVD sales, but it would create more jobs for tech support and hardware sales, as a larger number of people are now buying DVRs and DVD-Rs. Whether companies see this as an opportunity to downsize or restructure is entirely an independent position, and I realize what is more likely to happen.
The cable industry would likely remain unchanged, as people would still be required to purchase episode packages through their local cable services, and service people would still be required to come and hook up equipment.
The entertainment industry would blossom, because there would no longer be a limited number of hours that a station could fill with programming, and they would be able to provide more experimental programming from new and independent artists. Struggling actors and writers could be offered more chances to break into the industry, while more established members of the industry could be more selective about the projects that they want to work on.
I don't know if it could work, and I certainly haven't fleshed out all of the details in my head. It's just something that I started to think about, and I wondered if anyone else has thought much about it. Especially with people now buying episodes of shows on itunes and networks offering full episodes on their websites for a week after a show airs, doesn't it seem like we're kinda moving in that direction? Besides that, how many people do any of you know (in your age bracket - your parents don't count) that don't already have some kind of DVR?
What is the new direction for television?
Edit: Please no comments on the figures used in this post. They are purely hypothetical, come from no source other than my imagination and reflect nothing about the actual industry. Sometimes you just need a little bit of illustration.