Oscars

[undergrounddan]

I really have no time to spend doing this, there are papers desperately calling my name for me to finish, but it just wouldn't be right not to do it, because hey, it's just what I do.  So here is my Oscar analysis, who will win and who I think should win, even though I wasn't able to see anywhere near as many of the nominees as last year when I only missed one Vera Drake.  The important one's I didn't get to see this year are most notably Good Night, and Good Luck (6 nominations) and North Country (2 nominations).

Best Picture
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Who I think should win: Brokeback Mountain

Best Director
Will win: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Who I think should win: Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain

Best Actor
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Who I think should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote

Any other year and Heath Ledger would win for Brokeback Mountain but Hoffman is just terrific.

Best Actress
Will win: Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Who I think should win: Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

As much as I'm not a Reese Witherspoon fan (minus Election) she should and probably will win.  Although I haven't seen Felicity Huffman -Transamerica, who is her biggest competition.

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Who I think should win: Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain

Sure George Clooney won the Golden Globe and Jake wasn't even nominated, but Jake did win the BAFTA and his performance is far stronger than Clooney's.

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Who I think should win: Maria Bello - A History of Violence (not nominated)

I think Maria Bello should have been nominated and should win Supporting Actress, however because she's not nominated, I think Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener should win.

Best Screenplay - Original
Will win: Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney and Grant Heslov
Who I think should win: The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach

Crash may pullout the win on this one.

Best Screenplay - Adapted
Will win: Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana
Who I think should win: Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana

Capote will be the competition.

Documentary Feature
Will win: March of the Penguins
Who I think should win: March of the Penguins

I suppose March of the Penguins was the best documentary I've seen this past year although my favorite was Mad Hot Ballroom which is right up there and should have at least been nominated.

Documentary Short Subject
Will win: God Sleeps in Rwanda
Who I think should win: God Sleeps in Rwanda

Art Direction
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha, John Myhre, art direction; Gretchen Rau, set decoration
Who I think should win: Memoirs of a Geisha, John Myhre, art direction; Gretchen Rau, set decoration

Live Action Short Film
Will win: The Last Farm
Who I think should win: Cashback

Perhaps I'm biased because I work at a grocery store.

Costume Design
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha, Colleen Atwood
Who I think should win: Memoirs of a Geisha, Colleen Atwood

Animated Feature
Will win: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Who I think should win: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Wallace & Gromit are rather brilliant.

Sound Mixing
Will win: King Kong
Who I think should win: King Kong

Sound Editing
Will win: King Kong
Who I think should win: King Kong

I think Kong will win, but Walk the Line may take home this award.

Editing
Will win: Crash
Who I think should win: Crash

It's really a contest between The Constant Gardener and Crash although there has been some talk about Munich.

Makeup
Will win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe
Who I think should win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe

This is a tought choice because Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith is strong as well in this category.

Foreign Language Film
Will win: Paradise Now, Palestine
Who I think should win: Tsotsi, South Africa

Hell, Ann Coulter picked Paradise Now

Cinematography
Will win: Brokeback Mountain, Rodrigo Prieto
Who I think should win: Brokeback Mountain, Rodrigo Prieto

Original Score
Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha, John Williams
Who I think should win: Brokeback Mountain, Gustavo Santaolalla

No contest in my opinion Santaolalla's score for the movie is beautiful.

Original Song
Will win: "Travelin' Thru," music and lyric by Dolly Parton, Transamerica
Who I think should win: '"In the Deep," music by Kathleen "Bird" York and Michael Becker; lyric by Kathleen "Bird" York, Crash

Only three songs nominated.  Weird.

Well that certainly took a long time, too long.