Iran Behaving Badly
Iran has threatened to end nuclear cooperation with IAEA:
Iran threatened Friday to end surprise inspections and other cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog if it is referred to the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear program, and the president vowed his country won't be intimidated by sanctions.
Iran's tough line came as Europe and the United States were trying to build support for hauling Iran before the Security Council. They faced resistance from China, which warned the move could only escalate the confrontation.
In Washington, President Bush and German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged U.N. intervention. The world needs to "send a common message to Iran that their behavior … is unacceptable," Bush said.
I wish the Chinese government would get behind a move to stop the Iranian nuclear program. But that's probably too much to hope for:
China, which has growing economic ties with Iran and holds veto powers at the Security Council, expressed its opposition to putting Tehran before the world body for possible sanctions.
"We want a solution but to refer it might complicate the issue," its U.N. ambassador, Wang Guangya, said. "This is our concern."
Asked how a referral to the council could complicate the situation, Wang said, "I think that this might make the positions of some parties more tough on this issue."
Many have feared that Iran would possibly try to hit Israel with nuclear weapons if it developed such capabilities. However, it's worth noting that Iran just might be loathe to do because of strategic and theological concerns:
To the West lies the undeclared nuclear power of Israel, the only Middle Eastern country that has nuclear weapons, and also one of the few with the full triad of delivery systems. Just like the really big boys, Israel can deliver its nukes from land-based Jericho missiles, from its F-15I long-range fighter-bombers, or from the cruise missiles aboard its Dolphin-class submarines.
This means that Israel has a wholly survivable deterrent, capable of delivering second and third strikes even if Israel itself were destroyed. (One complication for any imams or mullahs pondering Israeli target options would be the theological implications of destroying the al-Aqsa mosque in the heart of Jerusalem, the most holy site in Islam after Mecca and Medina.)
And to the South of Iran sails the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet in the Indian Ocean, and to the West sails the 6th Fleet in the Mediterranean, while the B-2 Stealth bombers from Whiteman Air Force base in Missouri proved in the bombing of Baghdad that they can strike from any point of the compass. And the lesson that Tehran learned from the American wars against Iraq was that their national sovereignty (or rather, their immunity from U.S.-sponsored regime change) could only be guaranteed by the possession of nuclear weapons.
The only question now is whether the world is prepared to put up with a nuclear-armed Iran, which is currently led by a religious zealot who declares publicly that the Holocaust never took place and Israel should be wiped off the map.
And therein lies the rub with Iran, however. Their country is controlled by a crew of unpredictable old guard religious fanatics. What makes these Islamic hardliners even more of a wildcard isn't just the pressure from outside Iran, it's the growing cultural divide between the Islamic hard-liners and an increasingly Westernized populace itching for more and more freedom.
This can only end in one of three ways, in my opinion:
1) The Islamic whack-jobs that currently run Iran develop nuclear weapons, get itchy paranoid trigger fingers, and nuke Israel. This could very well start World War III.
2) The Israelis start to feel threatened enough by their insane Iranian rivals, launch an airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities(or get us to do it but it's unlikely we'd go that far for our Israeli allies at this juncture). This could also start World War III.
3) We'll get just lucky enough that scenarios 1 and 2 never take place. If Iran doesn't wind up being the epicenter of Armageddon, the old guard will eventually die off, and the more laid-back Iranian youth culture will finally assume control of Iran.
If you're religious, pray for the third scenario.
Iran threatened Friday to end surprise inspections and other cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog if it is referred to the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear program, and the president vowed his country won't be intimidated by sanctions.
Iran's tough line came as Europe and the United States were trying to build support for hauling Iran before the Security Council. They faced resistance from China, which warned the move could only escalate the confrontation.
In Washington, President Bush and German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged U.N. intervention. The world needs to "send a common message to Iran that their behavior … is unacceptable," Bush said.
I wish the Chinese government would get behind a move to stop the Iranian nuclear program. But that's probably too much to hope for:
China, which has growing economic ties with Iran and holds veto powers at the Security Council, expressed its opposition to putting Tehran before the world body for possible sanctions.
"We want a solution but to refer it might complicate the issue," its U.N. ambassador, Wang Guangya, said. "This is our concern."
Asked how a referral to the council could complicate the situation, Wang said, "I think that this might make the positions of some parties more tough on this issue."
Many have feared that Iran would possibly try to hit Israel with nuclear weapons if it developed such capabilities. However, it's worth noting that Iran just might be loathe to do because of strategic and theological concerns:
To the West lies the undeclared nuclear power of Israel, the only Middle Eastern country that has nuclear weapons, and also one of the few with the full triad of delivery systems. Just like the really big boys, Israel can deliver its nukes from land-based Jericho missiles, from its F-15I long-range fighter-bombers, or from the cruise missiles aboard its Dolphin-class submarines.
This means that Israel has a wholly survivable deterrent, capable of delivering second and third strikes even if Israel itself were destroyed. (One complication for any imams or mullahs pondering Israeli target options would be the theological implications of destroying the al-Aqsa mosque in the heart of Jerusalem, the most holy site in Islam after Mecca and Medina.)
And to the South of Iran sails the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet in the Indian Ocean, and to the West sails the 6th Fleet in the Mediterranean, while the B-2 Stealth bombers from Whiteman Air Force base in Missouri proved in the bombing of Baghdad that they can strike from any point of the compass. And the lesson that Tehran learned from the American wars against Iraq was that their national sovereignty (or rather, their immunity from U.S.-sponsored regime change) could only be guaranteed by the possession of nuclear weapons.
The only question now is whether the world is prepared to put up with a nuclear-armed Iran, which is currently led by a religious zealot who declares publicly that the Holocaust never took place and Israel should be wiped off the map.
And therein lies the rub with Iran, however. Their country is controlled by a crew of unpredictable old guard religious fanatics. What makes these Islamic hardliners even more of a wildcard isn't just the pressure from outside Iran, it's the growing cultural divide between the Islamic hard-liners and an increasingly Westernized populace itching for more and more freedom.
This can only end in one of three ways, in my opinion:
1) The Islamic whack-jobs that currently run Iran develop nuclear weapons, get itchy paranoid trigger fingers, and nuke Israel. This could very well start World War III.
2) The Israelis start to feel threatened enough by their insane Iranian rivals, launch an airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities(or get us to do it but it's unlikely we'd go that far for our Israeli allies at this juncture). This could also start World War III.
3) We'll get just lucky enough that scenarios 1 and 2 never take place. If Iran doesn't wind up being the epicenter of Armageddon, the old guard will eventually die off, and the more laid-back Iranian youth culture will finally assume control of Iran.
If you're religious, pray for the third scenario.