The Labour Party is undergoing its periodic bout of self-immolation. I'm banging my head against a wall.
Three probable scenarios, IMO:
a) Jeremy wins on first prefs, possibly by a lot (55-60%) b) Yvette beats Andy into the final round, Jeremy wins comfortably on Andy's second prefs c) Andy wins narrowly in the final round
Of these I think it's most likely between a) and c), depending on how many shy Andy voters there are relative to the YouGov poll. There could potentially be a lot- like you said, that last burst of signups on the final day may have been anti-Corbyn voters. Andy does best with WC voters of which YouGov had too small a sample, his voters tend to be older and therefore less computer savvy, and the Corbyn campaign seems to feel their union canvassing returns are not as good as they'd hoped. Plus whoever has the most momentum tends to underperform the polls- remember Cleggmania? If the YouGov panel is likely to under-represent anyone, it's Andy's supporters.
OTOH everyone inside Labour seems pretty confident that Corbyn will win, and the last-day sign-ups might also have been a burst of Corbyn supporters. So maybe he'll win by a landslide.
(I realize as predictions go, this is pretty worthless.)
If Jeremy loses, the hellstorm will NEVER END, especially if it's by a small margin. They're eliminating ballots from Greens etc. already and if Andy wins by less than the number of struck-off ballots, the Jezuits are going to scream themselves sick that he stole the election.
OTOH, a lot of those people were never properly in in the first place, and anyone who can't stomach Andy as leader is such a hardliner I don't think Labour can really accommodate them. And they'd probably be off anyway after St. Jezza's sudden but inevitable betrayal, because once you actually have to make decisions you can't keep everyone happy all of the time. So basically screw those guys. Labour's better off without 'em.
Of course if Jeremy wins the hellstorm will also never end, because we'll have to spend the next few years listening to the Blairites and the Brownites be whiny pissbabies about it.
The Labour Party is undergoing its periodic bout of self-immolation. I'm banging my head against a wall.
Three probable scenarios, IMO:
a) Jeremy wins on first prefs, possibly by a lot (55-60%)
b) Yvette beats Andy into the final round, Jeremy wins comfortably on Andy's second prefs
c) Andy wins narrowly in the final round
Of these I think it's most likely between a) and c), depending on how many shy Andy voters there are relative to the YouGov poll. There could potentially be a lot- like you said, that last burst of signups on the final day may have been anti-Corbyn voters. Andy does best with WC voters of which YouGov had too small a sample, his voters tend to be older and therefore less computer savvy, and the Corbyn campaign seems to feel their union canvassing returns are not as good as they'd hoped. Plus whoever has the most momentum tends to underperform the polls- remember Cleggmania? If the YouGov panel is likely to under-represent anyone, it's Andy's supporters.
OTOH everyone inside Labour seems pretty confident that Corbyn will win, and the last-day sign-ups might also have been a burst of Corbyn supporters. So maybe he'll win by a landslide.
(I realize as predictions go, this is pretty worthless.)
If Jeremy loses, the hellstorm will NEVER END, especially if it's by a small margin. They're eliminating ballots from Greens etc. already and if Andy wins by less than the number of struck-off ballots, the Jezuits are going to scream themselves sick that he stole the election.
OTOH, a lot of those people were never properly in in the first place, and anyone who can't stomach Andy as leader is such a hardliner I don't think Labour can really accommodate them. And they'd probably be off anyway after St. Jezza's sudden but inevitable betrayal, because once you actually have to make decisions you can't keep everyone happy all of the time. So basically screw those guys. Labour's better off without 'em.
Of course if Jeremy wins the hellstorm will also never end, because we'll have to spend the next few years listening to the Blairites and the Brownites be whiny pissbabies about it.
Ugh, this whole thing is such a clusterfuck.
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