why germany will/won't win the euro...

[txorakeriak]

Two little articles I found in the newspaper my parents are subscribing to. They're too awesome not to share. =)

Why we will win the Euro
Optimism. It's our turn again, of course. However, there also are a couple of good reasons to hope for a German triumph. We just shouldn't underestimate Romania.

• The sportive level of an European Cup might be high, probably even higher than that of a World Cup. Yet, we Germans don't really have to bother with such minor matters. The switches for the title have been changed in our favour months ago. Luck of the draw was our trustworthy ally. The preliminary group with Poland (remarkably weak during the qualification), Austria (see comment about Poland) and Croatia (alternating between genius and insanity) is undeniably the easiest on the whole tournament tableau. In group C, for example, at least one of the super power trio Holland, Italy and France will drop out. Our squad will advance, though - probably without glory, maybe even luckily, but they will reach the quarterfinals.
• In the quarterfinals, there won't be any really awe-inspiring opponents standing in the way of Löw & Co., either. The opponent will be recruited from group A; Switzerland, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Turkey being candidates. Only Cristiano Ronaldo can be dangerous for us. He could put Lahm to shame. So if we have to go against the Portuguese, things might be difficult. Yet, even there, we'll surely rescue ourselves to the penalty shootout - and then, the beautiful Cristiano will waste his shot (like in the Champions League) and we're set for the semifinals.
• Even in the semifinals, our opponent will either be from group A or group B. What has been said before applies.
• Only in the final is it possible for us to face big names like the Netherlands, Italy and France. In theory. In practice, they'll have thrown each other out of the tournament already. And in case there's still one of these three in the semifinals, they'll stumble over an outsider. There's at least one surprise at every Euro, that's a natural law in football. Basta!
• So an outsider will be our opponent in the final. The Greeks? Unlikely. The luck and the defense concrete of 2004 are used up. The Spanish? They haven't won a big tournament in centuries. The Swedes? Nice guys, but too well-behaved. The Russians? Have already risen to their fans' expectations by kicking out England in the qualifiers. The Romanians? Yes, we have to be careful of them. Nobody knows them, nobody likes them. And they were better than the Netherlands in the qualification. We mustn't underestimate them. Yet, if we all listen to Jogi and play with "highest concentration", the title is ours.

Why we won't win the Euro
Pessimism. At a rough estimate, there are about 1,000 reasons why Germany won't win the Euro and provide with a real German "Sommermärchen". Here is a selection of the most important ones:

• People believe that finishing third at a World Cup equals finishing first at a Euro. Some players probably believe that, too. Fact is: A European championship is the more difficult test. The Germans' hopes for exotics like Costa Rica are in vain.
• The Euro doesn't take place in Germany. Jogi Löw's team will have nothing but away games. For the three preliminary games, only 14,500 tickets have been sold to German fans. The rest landed with the opponent, sponsors, functionaries and celebs, most of whom don't master the German anthem.
• The German team hasn't won a Euro game for twelve years. Our last victory was the 2-1 against the Czech Republic in the final of 1996. In 2000 and 2004, the Germans were knocked out without a single success. A team needs time to get over that.
• Just about the same time has passed since the Germans beat a big nation in the Euro or World Cup. The victory against Argentina in 2006 doesn't count because of the penalty shoot out. Yet, the path to the title leads past the big ones.
• More crucial than everything else will be the impact of the author's presence on the German players. A work protocol:
  - When he first reported from a World Cup in the US in 1994, the Germans were still champions of the world - afterwards, they weren't anymore. Kicked out by Bulgaria in the quarterfinals.
  - Two years later, Euro in England: When I flew home as planned and a colleague took over for me, things suddenly started going really well. Germany became European champion.
  - 1998, at the World Cup in France, it was the other way around. I had just taken over from my colleague, the Germans were kicked out.
  - Euro 2000: I followed Germany into perdition from beginning to end.
  - World Cup 2002: Stayed at home. Germany returned as vice world champions from Asia.
  - Euro 2004: See Euro 2000.
  - "Sommermärchen" 2006: Was there when Italy kept the Klinsmann boys out of the final.
  Unsurprisingly, I feel guilty for the fate of the German team. But what does it help? There simply won't be a title again this time.

(Source: Augsburger Allgemeine, June 2008)