(no subject)
NHC has finally taken the liberty of centering Floater 2 over Invest 92L tonight. Might have been nice had we had this at this time last night, as it's taken a bit of a pinching from some dry air entrainment from the west, and some increased shear.
NRL still has it analyzed at 25 knots, but this might be a bit generous at this hour. Scatterometer no longer indicating much in the way of cyclonic flow at the surface, either.
On the plus sides, as has been the case for the past 36 hours or so, convection continues to blow up right about the center. Also, the cyclone has been persistent, and this alone is probably the main reason that Dvorak T numbers are now up to 1.5 subtropical. By comparison, 91L doesn't even rate, anymore:
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/0545 UTC 34.5N 52.4W ST1.5/1.5 92L
24/2345 UTC 34.4N 51.1W ST1.5/1.5 92L
24/1745 UTC 34.0N 49.8W ST1.0/1.0 92L
24/1745 UTC 27.8N 77.0W TOO WEAK 91L
24/1145 UTC 27.7N 76.2W TOO WEAK 91L
24/0545 UTC 26.2N 75.4W T1.0/1.0 91L
23/2345 UTC 25.7N 75.0W T1.0/1.0 91L
23/1745 UTC 26.8N 73.7W T1.0/1.0 91L
23/1215 UTC 26.7N 73.6W T1.0/1.0 92L
Last night's 00Z model runs wash it out somewhat quickly, although the most recent SHF5 intensity forecast is now up to an impressive 60 knots. Subtropical cyclones often get on NHC's last nerve, and can render models fairly useless. Epsilon was certainly one of the best examples of this, ever.
As they have done for the past three days or so, models truly want to develop something just north of Puerto Rico by mid-week. Lots of convection down there - plenty of juice to work with!
NRL still has it analyzed at 25 knots, but this might be a bit generous at this hour. Scatterometer no longer indicating much in the way of cyclonic flow at the surface, either.
On the plus sides, as has been the case for the past 36 hours or so, convection continues to blow up right about the center. Also, the cyclone has been persistent, and this alone is probably the main reason that Dvorak T numbers are now up to 1.5 subtropical. By comparison, 91L doesn't even rate, anymore:
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/0545 UTC 34.5N 52.4W ST1.5/1.5 92L
24/2345 UTC 34.4N 51.1W ST1.5/1.5 92L
24/1745 UTC 34.0N 49.8W ST1.0/1.0 92L
24/1745 UTC 27.8N 77.0W TOO WEAK 91L
24/1145 UTC 27.7N 76.2W TOO WEAK 91L
24/0545 UTC 26.2N 75.4W T1.0/1.0 91L
23/2345 UTC 25.7N 75.0W T1.0/1.0 91L
23/1745 UTC 26.8N 73.7W T1.0/1.0 91L
23/1215 UTC 26.7N 73.6W T1.0/1.0 92L
Last night's 00Z model runs wash it out somewhat quickly, although the most recent SHF5 intensity forecast is now up to an impressive 60 knots. Subtropical cyclones often get on NHC's last nerve, and can render models fairly useless. Epsilon was certainly one of the best examples of this, ever.
As they have done for the past three days or so, models truly want to develop something just north of Puerto Rico by mid-week. Lots of convection down there - plenty of juice to work with!