Surge-prone Cedar Key at risk for significant surge
Mike Bettes is reporting live from Cedar Key. Cedar Key, Fl. is forecast to be in Alberto's right-front quadrant. Dr. Lyons points out that this area is one of the most surge-susceptible regions in the entire Gulf of Mexico. As such, the surge forecast for Cedar Keys is for 6 to 9 feet above average of water rise. Obviously, Mike Bettes and his crew are planning on moving inland later today.
I can't help but notice that the Low Level Center is being outrun by the deeper convection, and the convection this afternoon is nowhere near as deep as it was this morning. However, it does appear to be trying to fight off the shear and as of this post some convection does look to be trying to wrap all the way around the LLC again. I would not be entirely surprised to see another overnight burst of convection about this center, or have yet another new LLC form under a renewed burst of deeper convection, but the limiting factors include the high shear, and the fact that Alberto is no longer over the especially warm Loop Current.
By the way, anomalously strong Tropical Waves, for this early in the season, continue east to west across the Atlantic.
Penny for your thoughts?
I can't help but notice that the Low Level Center is being outrun by the deeper convection, and the convection this afternoon is nowhere near as deep as it was this morning. However, it does appear to be trying to fight off the shear and as of this post some convection does look to be trying to wrap all the way around the LLC again. I would not be entirely surprised to see another overnight burst of convection about this center, or have yet another new LLC form under a renewed burst of deeper convection, but the limiting factors include the high shear, and the fact that Alberto is no longer over the especially warm Loop Current.
By the way, anomalously strong Tropical Waves, for this early in the season, continue east to west across the Atlantic.
Penny for your thoughts?