Wow...
Go Iran, Go.
Personally, the key to thwarting fundamentalist islam has always been Iran. Persia has generally been the most advanced country in the region for, let's say, the last 2500 years. Yes, Egypt was into civilzation earlier, and once those Central Asian guys--you know--the Turks--conquered Anatolia, they got to be big stuff for a while--but Iran has possessed a very educated and impressive culture for thousands of years.
Furthermore, they are religious splitters in terms of Islam. States dominated by Shiites (within the middle east proper at least) have been far more accomodating to women than Sunni states. Additionally, geopolitically speaking, Iran was long connected to the West and it is the only really large state in the region that has a significant middle class with some influence and power.
I don't know what's going to happen there--but there is the distinct chance that this could be the start of a profound realignment. I'm not saying Iran's going to become our best buddies and what not.. but if you saw a real shift in power and a collapse of the more radical clergy in favor of a sympathetic and not-unfriendly-to-dealing-with-the-reality-of-modernity group of clerics.. you could see the creation--all on their own--of a truly modern islamic state. With its declining oil reserves and burgeoning youth population--they would have to begin to shift towards the information revolution that has affected the rest of the world--and you would totally fuck up the oil-despot led mentality that controls the region.
Evidence for this possibility can be found here:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/grand-ayatollah-montazeri-takes-a-stand.html#more
As I note--this isn't the end of islam there.. nor should it be.. but when you have figures this big in the clergy undermining the main regime--the openings for pluralism are real.
Go Iran, Go.
Personally, the key to thwarting fundamentalist islam has always been Iran. Persia has generally been the most advanced country in the region for, let's say, the last 2500 years. Yes, Egypt was into civilzation earlier, and once those Central Asian guys--you know--the Turks--conquered Anatolia, they got to be big stuff for a while--but Iran has possessed a very educated and impressive culture for thousands of years.
Furthermore, they are religious splitters in terms of Islam. States dominated by Shiites (within the middle east proper at least) have been far more accomodating to women than Sunni states. Additionally, geopolitically speaking, Iran was long connected to the West and it is the only really large state in the region that has a significant middle class with some influence and power.
I don't know what's going to happen there--but there is the distinct chance that this could be the start of a profound realignment. I'm not saying Iran's going to become our best buddies and what not.. but if you saw a real shift in power and a collapse of the more radical clergy in favor of a sympathetic and not-unfriendly-to-dealing-with-the-reality-of-modernity group of clerics.. you could see the creation--all on their own--of a truly modern islamic state. With its declining oil reserves and burgeoning youth population--they would have to begin to shift towards the information revolution that has affected the rest of the world--and you would totally fuck up the oil-despot led mentality that controls the region.
Evidence for this possibility can be found here:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/grand-ayatollah-montazeri-takes-a-stand.html#more
As I note--this isn't the end of islam there.. nor should it be.. but when you have figures this big in the clergy undermining the main regime--the openings for pluralism are real.
Go Iran, Go.