FF: Drafting for Depth, 10 Week Analysis
We're 10 weeks through the NFL season. I have no hard numbers, but I feel pretty confident that the injury carnage this year has far surpassed the previous 2 seasons (I've only done fantasy football for the past 2 years).
In the previous articles I stressed drafting RB and WR depth to guard against busts and injuries. There have been plenty of busts this year, but for this analysis I am only going to look at injuries. Since this is such an injury-plagued year, it should be especially important to have depth at WR and RB. I am going to look at some of the teams in my Yahoo! league and how they have fared thus far. I am only going to look at RB and WR injuries, although there have been some slightly significant injuries at the other positions.
Jonathan's 529, 6-4:
Stephen Jackson, R1 P2, 4 weeks
Brandon Jacobs, R3 P2, 3 weeks
Anquan Boldin, R5 P2, 3 weeks
Lamont Jordan, R6 P11, ever shrinking role due to back injury
Verand Morency, R9 P2, 3 weeks (also a bust)
National Chompions, 7-3:
Ronnie Brown, R2 P5, 2 weeks, out for season
Deuce McCallister, R4 P5, 6 weeks, out for season
void *s, 7-3:
Brian Westbrook, R1 P10, 1 week
Andre Johnson, R3 P10, 7+ weeks
Carnell Williams, R4 P3, 5 weeks, out for season
DJ Hackett, R10 P3, 6 weeks
Giddy-Up Again, 3-7:
Laurence Maroney, R1 P12, 3 weeks
Adrian Peterson, R3 P12, 0+ weeks
Javon Walker, R4 P1, 6+ weeks
Deion Branch, R6 P1, 4 weeks
Blunt Force Trauma, 1-9:
Rudi Johnson, R1 P11, 3 weeks
Travis Henry, R2 P2, 2+ weeks
Kevin Jones, R10 P2, 2 weeks
Punting Penguins, 6-4:
Larry Johnson, R1 P3, 1+ weeks
Hines Ward, R5 P3, 2 weeks
Brandon Jackson, R6 P10, 4 weeks (also a bust)
Oracles of Omaha, 7-3:
Joseph Addai, R1 P7, 1 week
Marvin Harrison, R2 P6, 3+ weeks
Calvin Johnson, R5 P7, 1 week
Geneseo Gerbils, 5-5:
Chester Taylor, R5 P9, 2 weeks
Terry Glenn, R10 P4, 9 weeks, will miss entire season
Millerdoggies, 3-7:
Shaun Alexander, R1 P4, 1+ weeks
Red Menace, 6-4:
Ahman Green, R5 P5, 3 weeks
BonerJamz07, 4-6:
Jamal Lewis, R5 P6, 2 weeks
At first glance it seems quite incredible that the teams that have suffered the most injury-wise have fared the best. I would have thought fantasy football was part skill and part luck, a big portion of the luck being avoiding injuries.
I (void *s), have already lost 13 weeks of play from my top 5 draft picks. Yet I sit atop the league at the moment, in first place. My friend Paul (Jonathan's 529) has lost 10 weeks, but also both of his RB3 candidates have suffered, and that hurts him even more because he's lost more weeks of RB time than I have. Paul is tied with 2 other teams for the 2nd best record in the league. The National Chompions, like me, are also 7-3. They've lost 8 weeks so far, all of it from their 2nd and 4th round pick RBs, who are both out for the season (ouch!). The Chompions drafted very well, with a similar strategy as us.
I feel that the fact that Paul, Tarek (Chompions) and I are even still remotely competitive in this league vindicates the philosophy of drafting for depth at the key positions. Tarek will have a tough go of it, since neither of his guys are coming back this year. Paul and I keep chugging along.
So drafting for depth does give you injury protection. However, it's still arguable that drafting for the best player at every position and hoping not to get injured could still win a championship. Even beyond that, the fact that loading up on WRs and RBs seems to work, it doesn't prove that a team that lacks depth, but drafted top guys who lived up to their promise, can't do well in the face of some amount of injuries. Let's look at the Oracles of Omaha.
His (Kaleb's) team is also 7-3. In the first 6 rounds he took a QB, a TE, and a defense. I think the fact that Kaleb has been competitive in the league for years does in fact lend some credence to his drafting style, but I would make the following caveats:
Another interesting case is that of Dani's team, the Punting Penguins. Currently they are 6-4. She made the typical draft error of drafting a defense and kicker way too early, and in general drafting very poorly from round 8 on. This is another way to not get good depth. While she looks OK in the standings, I would argue that her team also appears quite delicate. Of the 3 weeks she was without Larry Johnson or Hines Ward, she lost twice. Like the Oracles, she sort of hit the jackpot by getting Randy Moss. If he goes down or under-performs, she is probably done for.
Maybe I will look at some of the other teams later. I suspect some of them show that sometimes injuries will just plain wipe you out, there's no amount of insurance that would help. I suspect that there is at least another example or two of how injuries wiped out teams that perhaps could have survived with better drafting. That's it for now...
In the previous articles I stressed drafting RB and WR depth to guard against busts and injuries. There have been plenty of busts this year, but for this analysis I am only going to look at injuries. Since this is such an injury-plagued year, it should be especially important to have depth at WR and RB. I am going to look at some of the teams in my Yahoo! league and how they have fared thus far. I am only going to look at RB and WR injuries, although there have been some slightly significant injuries at the other positions.
Jonathan's 529, 6-4:
Stephen Jackson, R1 P2, 4 weeks
Brandon Jacobs, R3 P2, 3 weeks
Anquan Boldin, R5 P2, 3 weeks
Lamont Jordan, R6 P11, ever shrinking role due to back injury
Verand Morency, R9 P2, 3 weeks (also a bust)
National Chompions, 7-3:
Ronnie Brown, R2 P5, 2 weeks, out for season
Deuce McCallister, R4 P5, 6 weeks, out for season
void *s, 7-3:
Brian Westbrook, R1 P10, 1 week
Andre Johnson, R3 P10, 7+ weeks
Carnell Williams, R4 P3, 5 weeks, out for season
DJ Hackett, R10 P3, 6 weeks
Giddy-Up Again, 3-7:
Laurence Maroney, R1 P12, 3 weeks
Adrian Peterson, R3 P12, 0+ weeks
Javon Walker, R4 P1, 6+ weeks
Deion Branch, R6 P1, 4 weeks
Blunt Force Trauma, 1-9:
Rudi Johnson, R1 P11, 3 weeks
Travis Henry, R2 P2, 2+ weeks
Kevin Jones, R10 P2, 2 weeks
Punting Penguins, 6-4:
Larry Johnson, R1 P3, 1+ weeks
Hines Ward, R5 P3, 2 weeks
Brandon Jackson, R6 P10, 4 weeks (also a bust)
Oracles of Omaha, 7-3:
Joseph Addai, R1 P7, 1 week
Marvin Harrison, R2 P6, 3+ weeks
Calvin Johnson, R5 P7, 1 week
Geneseo Gerbils, 5-5:
Chester Taylor, R5 P9, 2 weeks
Terry Glenn, R10 P4, 9 weeks, will miss entire season
Millerdoggies, 3-7:
Shaun Alexander, R1 P4, 1+ weeks
Red Menace, 6-4:
Ahman Green, R5 P5, 3 weeks
BonerJamz07, 4-6:
Jamal Lewis, R5 P6, 2 weeks
At first glance it seems quite incredible that the teams that have suffered the most injury-wise have fared the best. I would have thought fantasy football was part skill and part luck, a big portion of the luck being avoiding injuries.
I (void *s), have already lost 13 weeks of play from my top 5 draft picks. Yet I sit atop the league at the moment, in first place. My friend Paul (Jonathan's 529) has lost 10 weeks, but also both of his RB3 candidates have suffered, and that hurts him even more because he's lost more weeks of RB time than I have. Paul is tied with 2 other teams for the 2nd best record in the league. The National Chompions, like me, are also 7-3. They've lost 8 weeks so far, all of it from their 2nd and 4th round pick RBs, who are both out for the season (ouch!). The Chompions drafted very well, with a similar strategy as us.
I feel that the fact that Paul, Tarek (Chompions) and I are even still remotely competitive in this league vindicates the philosophy of drafting for depth at the key positions. Tarek will have a tough go of it, since neither of his guys are coming back this year. Paul and I keep chugging along.
So drafting for depth does give you injury protection. However, it's still arguable that drafting for the best player at every position and hoping not to get injured could still win a championship. Even beyond that, the fact that loading up on WRs and RBs seems to work, it doesn't prove that a team that lacks depth, but drafted top guys who lived up to their promise, can't do well in the face of some amount of injuries. Let's look at the Oracles of Omaha.
His (Kaleb's) team is also 7-3. In the first 6 rounds he took a QB, a TE, and a defense. I think the fact that Kaleb has been competitive in the league for years does in fact lend some credence to his drafting style, but I would make the following caveats:
- Maybe he hasn't historically suffered much injury, I don't know, I haven't gone back and looked.
- The fact that this league has a free-for-all waivers system makes it much easier to recover from bad drafting.
Another interesting case is that of Dani's team, the Punting Penguins. Currently they are 6-4. She made the typical draft error of drafting a defense and kicker way too early, and in general drafting very poorly from round 8 on. This is another way to not get good depth. While she looks OK in the standings, I would argue that her team also appears quite delicate. Of the 3 weeks she was without Larry Johnson or Hines Ward, she lost twice. Like the Oracles, she sort of hit the jackpot by getting Randy Moss. If he goes down or under-performs, she is probably done for.
Maybe I will look at some of the other teams later. I suspect some of them show that sometimes injuries will just plain wipe you out, there's no amount of insurance that would help. I suspect that there is at least another example or two of how injuries wiped out teams that perhaps could have survived with better drafting. That's it for now...