FF: Drafting a decent team, part 3
I'll talk about one last concept concerning the positions: predictability. As you might guess, at most positions you can count on most players performing fairly similarly as they have in years past. Yes the experts try to gauge which guy might falter due to age or injury, or excel due to a new team or opportunity, but in general most of the positions are fairly predictable in this regard.
Not too surprising you say. You're right. This is true for any sport of skill. Lance wins 6 tours, and guess what? It's a pretty good bet he'll do OK in number 7.
But what is interesting concerning the fantasy football positions is that there are two in particular where it is very hard to predict. Without providing numbers (which could be found in articles on this topic), suffice it to say that the top fantasy performers at kicker and defense have changed at a remarkable rate year after year.
This isn't surprising for kickers. All NFL kickers nowadays can put it through the uprights, even from 40-50 yards, with amazing consistency. It's really just a matter then of who will get the most opportunities, and how are you going to predict which teams will be able to get to the red zone, but be unable to score TDs, and also have the game score such that they will attempt the FG?
I for one am somewhat surprised by the fact that the results for defenses change so much year after year. I can't really explain it.
So let's say it's your turn to draft in round 9. There are some real ho-hum RBs left. You only have 3 so far, and you should get a bench guy, but what's left is so boring. You had Neil Rackers at kickers last year and he went off. He won you two games, and lead your FF league in scoring at kicker. You really want him again this year and are nervous someone else will grab him, so you take him with your pick.
I had Rackers two years ago, and he in fact did win me a couple games and along with one other kicker, had about 25 more points at the end of the season than any other kicker. Last year he finished 7th, in a clump of a ton of other guys with virtually the same point totals (remember the variance stat at kicker?). So the thing is, you should think twice about drafting a kicker or defense based on last year's totals, or some expert's ranking of them for this year. It's just so hard to predict with any accuracy.
Not too surprising you say. You're right. This is true for any sport of skill. Lance wins 6 tours, and guess what? It's a pretty good bet he'll do OK in number 7.
But what is interesting concerning the fantasy football positions is that there are two in particular where it is very hard to predict. Without providing numbers (which could be found in articles on this topic), suffice it to say that the top fantasy performers at kicker and defense have changed at a remarkable rate year after year.
This isn't surprising for kickers. All NFL kickers nowadays can put it through the uprights, even from 40-50 yards, with amazing consistency. It's really just a matter then of who will get the most opportunities, and how are you going to predict which teams will be able to get to the red zone, but be unable to score TDs, and also have the game score such that they will attempt the FG?
I for one am somewhat surprised by the fact that the results for defenses change so much year after year. I can't really explain it.
So let's say it's your turn to draft in round 9. There are some real ho-hum RBs left. You only have 3 so far, and you should get a bench guy, but what's left is so boring. You had Neil Rackers at kickers last year and he went off. He won you two games, and lead your FF league in scoring at kicker. You really want him again this year and are nervous someone else will grab him, so you take him with your pick.
I had Rackers two years ago, and he in fact did win me a couple games and along with one other kicker, had about 25 more points at the end of the season than any other kicker. Last year he finished 7th, in a clump of a ton of other guys with virtually the same point totals (remember the variance stat at kicker?). So the thing is, you should think twice about drafting a kicker or defense based on last year's totals, or some expert's ranking of them for this year. It's just so hard to predict with any accuracy.