Probabilities and Protests
the lesson for John McCain is I suppose: if you wanted to win Minnesota you should have smeared your opponent, that way the voters would "protest" the election and vote for someone who has no mathematical chance at victory.
Listen, I'm all for 3rd party candidates, but I'm also for logical approaches to reality.
When someone asks you in the polling season who you are voting for, I would hope you are answering who you think most matches your views. But when it comes time to go to the voting booth, if there are 3 candidates and two if them are polling in the forties and one is polling in the teens then it is time to accept a mathematical certainty: the guy in the teens is not going to win. It is time to look at the two candidates within striking distance of each other and decide which most closely matches your views. A vote in protest is, in effect, a vote for the guy you don't want to win. I know at least 3 people at my place of business who are democrats who didn't like how negative the race was between Al Franken and Norm Colman, so they voted for the 3rd party candidate. Mow they are furious that Norm Colman appears to have won. Well, grats, maybe you should have thought about that.
So the state swings 20 points in Obama's favor, but sends back two embarrassing Bush lackeys, it is political mathematics that amazes me.
As for the suggestion by one of my friends that he hopes Barack Obama is assassinated...I am disappointed in you as a rational human being, that kind of sentiment stated so seriously has no place in our politics. As much as I disagree with republican views and agendas, and as much as I dislike the politics of George W. Bush, I would never be so audacious as to request the death of a party's leader.
Also:
4 years ago I bitterly predicted:
1) The US government will impose a draft to continue to fight the failing war in the middle east
2) The middle class will disappear. If you aren't filthy rich get ready for poverty.
3) The US economy will collapse in upon itself as the debt ceiling rockets out of control and the collective delusion of the value of money disappears.
4) World war will break out, and the US will have no allies.
and in response was told:
nogib on November 4th, 2004 12:28 am (UTC)
IP Address:(24.26.171.184)
News flash: the sky is *NOT* falling regardless of who sits in the oval office. Stop over dramatizing the whole thing already.
Listen, I'm all for 3rd party candidates, but I'm also for logical approaches to reality.
When someone asks you in the polling season who you are voting for, I would hope you are answering who you think most matches your views. But when it comes time to go to the voting booth, if there are 3 candidates and two if them are polling in the forties and one is polling in the teens then it is time to accept a mathematical certainty: the guy in the teens is not going to win. It is time to look at the two candidates within striking distance of each other and decide which most closely matches your views. A vote in protest is, in effect, a vote for the guy you don't want to win. I know at least 3 people at my place of business who are democrats who didn't like how negative the race was between Al Franken and Norm Colman, so they voted for the 3rd party candidate. Mow they are furious that Norm Colman appears to have won. Well, grats, maybe you should have thought about that.
So the state swings 20 points in Obama's favor, but sends back two embarrassing Bush lackeys, it is political mathematics that amazes me.
As for the suggestion by one of my friends that he hopes Barack Obama is assassinated...I am disappointed in you as a rational human being, that kind of sentiment stated so seriously has no place in our politics. As much as I disagree with republican views and agendas, and as much as I dislike the politics of George W. Bush, I would never be so audacious as to request the death of a party's leader.
Also:
4 years ago I bitterly predicted:
1) The US government will impose a draft to continue to fight the failing war in the middle east
2) The middle class will disappear. If you aren't filthy rich get ready for poverty.
3) The US economy will collapse in upon itself as the debt ceiling rockets out of control and the collective delusion of the value of money disappears.
4) World war will break out, and the US will have no allies.
and in response was told:
nogib on November 4th, 2004 12:28 am (UTC)
IP Address:(24.26.171.184)
News flash: the sky is *NOT* falling regardless of who sits in the oval office. Stop over dramatizing the whole thing already.