The 50.1% Doctrine vs. The Value of a Solid Majority
Democracy's incentives are structured to encourage triangulation toward winning the most votes. The conventional rules say that if you can identify the policies that are most popular and get behind them more effectively than your opponent you'll end up winning. Both candidates compete to win as much support as possible and the person who wins the
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But I don't see some Rovian style plot anywhere.
Still, I too would like to see a decisive victory by SOMEONE, even Obama!
My reasoning might seem cynical to some, but in reality I'm just sorta bored by the last 20+ years of Presidential politics.
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Saw a reference today that emphasizes my thinking. In essence - A deeply divided electorate actually protects us from a runaway freight train.
The issue is certainly non-trivial and belies the Rovian plot element to a degree.
We may simply be watching a transition. From 50/50 to something else?
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It's too bad you don't provide the actual reference so that I could see what you're talking about.
I agree that party opposition prevents anyone from getting away with too much craziness. The Republican domination of the Senate, House, and Presidency starting in 2000 certainly led to a runaway Republican freight train and a lot of crazy things. Enough crazy things that the electorate gave power back to the Democrats in 2004. If they give the Democrats the presidency and even more Congressional power in 2008 it's likely that the Democrats will get their own runaway freight train and might do some crazy things of their own.
The only place where I disagree (this might have just been a typo) is where you mention "a deeply divided electorate". An evenly divided electorate with a few centrists to break ties certainly does protect us from too carried away with anything. Respectful ( ... )
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What percentage counts as a landslide in your book?
I still dunno what Rove has to do with the issue, but I'll leave that bit.
I covered that explicitly in my second paragraph.
I probably should have said 'committed' instead ...
"A deeply committed electorate actually protects us from a runaway freight train"? I guess that depends on what the commitment is to. If it's a commitment to democracy, the rule of law, and the Bill of Rights then that obviously saves us from a whole lot more freight trains than an electorate committed to one particular religious group, ethnic group, or political party.
Sometimes folks simply are not going to see things 'eye to eye', when that happens folks will say or do foolish things.You're finally saying something that I can agree with. When people are committed to their deeply divided positions - when they are unable to see eye to eye with one another - they say or do things which can be ( ... )
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I covered that explicitly in my second paragraph.
You did, and I just don't get it. Some spin doctor can say 50.1% is a mandate. Who cares?
Good things rarely come from a deficit of empathy and pragmatism. History is full of such examples.
I'm not so sure that empathy and pragmatism should be in the same sentence.
Isn't empathy an overtly 'sense' thing and pragmatism an overtly 'non-sense' thing? True in my book, so just asking?
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Talking again only about the popular vote... I'm thinking 70% or so.
By your definition nobody in the United States has ever won by a landslide. The closest was Johnson/Goldwater winning 61-38 in '64.
Some spin doctor can say 50.1% is a mandate. Who cares?
Do you actually read what I write or do you just respond off-the-cuff? "Some spin doctors" is the point of paragraph three and "who cares" is paragraph 5.
Once again we're back to active listening. The problem here isn't that you disagree with me, the problem is that you don't seem to understand what I'm saying. Unfortunately I can't be any clearer than I was originally. This might not be the blog for you.
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Well ... no.
Sometimes fearmongers are just plain wrong. When someone says that Barack Obama is an Arab Muslim they're not using "a different risk assessment". They are factually incorrect. They are mongering fear from total lies.
Sometimes fearmongers are not liars. Sometimes they are right - but still wrong. When someone says that Obama "pals around with terrorists" the are technically correct, inasmuch as a Distinguished Professor at the University of Chicago who turned himself into the authorities 18 years ago is a "terrorist" and serving on the same Republican board is "palling around". But they're still not using "a differing risk assessment". They're not assessing any risks at all. They're just saying something that sounds scary and letting everyone come to their own conclusions ( ... )
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Once again I think we have a semantic disagreement. The biggest landslide ever recorded is 1984 when Reagan beat Mondale 525 to 13 in the electoral college. That was a landslide even though the popular vote was divided pretty evenly - 58.8% to 40.6%. The current numbers have Obama ahead 49.7 to 42.4 which isn't as big as the biggest ever but is nothing to sneeze at either.
But I don't see some Rovian style plot anywhere.
What you don't see is many Rovian style plots working. The Republicans are pulling a number of Rovian style plots (McCain's campaign manager Steve Schmidt is a Rove protege) but they're all either fizzling or backfiring this year. I was too cynical to believe this could happen, which leaves me pleasantly surprised.
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