"I'd rather *not* hunt with Dick Cheney than ride with Ted Kennedy."
A lot of clever amateur actuaries shrewdly observe "I'd rather hunt with Dick Cheney than ride with Ted Kennedy." I find this logic flawed for the following reasons:
Ted Kennedy is 74 years old. He's been of driving age for 58 years, and if we assume he averages 20,000 miles per year he's driven 1,160,000 miles. He's also accidentally killed a 29 year old girl while driving drunk in 1969. That's an average of one dead woman while-intoxicated per 21,000 driving days. For the purposes of this writing I will specify One Kennedy as equal to one accidental fatality per 21,000 days.
Dick Cheney is 66 years old. He's been cited twice for drunk driving (November 1962 and July 1963) however he has not killed any women making his driving record Zero Kennedys. He's been of hunting age for 54 years, during which time he's accidentally shot at least one 74 year old man in the face, allegedly while intoxicated. If we generously assume that he's gone hunting three times every year that's an average of one non-fatal man-shot-in-the-face while-intoxicated per 162 hunting days. While the injury was not fatal that seems mostly due to the weapon (quail birdshot): had they been hunting for ducks or deer it's easy to imagine that the wound would have been fatal. If we generously assume that Dick is only "loaded for 74 year old attourney" one out of every three hunting trips that's still two wounded 74 year old men and one dead 74 year old man per 486 hunting trips, or 43 Kennedys.
Laura Bush is 61 years old. She's been of driving age for 45 years, and if we assume she averages 20,000 miles per year she's driven 900,000 miles. She also accidentally killed a 17 year old boy while driving sober in 1963. That's an average of one dead man per 16,500 driving days, or 1.31 Kennedys, not to mention a bonus multiplier for drawing first blood in this three-way grudge match.
With this in mind I'd like to affix the following zippy political bumper sticker to my car:
In descending order of preference I'd rather ride with Dick Cheney, then ride with Ted Kennedy, then ride with Laura Bush, then go hunting with Dick Cheney.
Ted Kennedy is 74 years old. He's been of driving age for 58 years, and if we assume he averages 20,000 miles per year he's driven 1,160,000 miles. He's also accidentally killed a 29 year old girl while driving drunk in 1969. That's an average of one dead woman while-intoxicated per 21,000 driving days. For the purposes of this writing I will specify One Kennedy as equal to one accidental fatality per 21,000 days.
Dick Cheney is 66 years old. He's been cited twice for drunk driving (November 1962 and July 1963) however he has not killed any women making his driving record Zero Kennedys. He's been of hunting age for 54 years, during which time he's accidentally shot at least one 74 year old man in the face, allegedly while intoxicated. If we generously assume that he's gone hunting three times every year that's an average of one non-fatal man-shot-in-the-face while-intoxicated per 162 hunting days. While the injury was not fatal that seems mostly due to the weapon (quail birdshot): had they been hunting for ducks or deer it's easy to imagine that the wound would have been fatal. If we generously assume that Dick is only "loaded for 74 year old attourney" one out of every three hunting trips that's still two wounded 74 year old men and one dead 74 year old man per 486 hunting trips, or 43 Kennedys.
Laura Bush is 61 years old. She's been of driving age for 45 years, and if we assume she averages 20,000 miles per year she's driven 900,000 miles. She also accidentally killed a 17 year old boy while driving sober in 1963. That's an average of one dead man per 16,500 driving days, or 1.31 Kennedys, not to mention a bonus multiplier for drawing first blood in this three-way grudge match.
With this in mind I'd like to affix the following zippy political bumper sticker to my car:
In descending order of preference I'd rather ride with Dick Cheney, then ride with Ted Kennedy, then ride with Laura Bush, then go hunting with Dick Cheney.