Say It Isn't So!

[tomsdisch]

One of my favorite hobbyhorses, which I like to ride a lot, is Denial and its special psychology. I've often waxed nostalgic for the time I had two Mormon missionaries as next door neighbors, and they both loved to argue about Darwin and Lyell (sp?) with special reference to the Grand Canyon. They had a book of photographs explaining how erosion

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Comic-book guy: "Most appropriate icon ... ever!"

[doaner19]

The spin-meisters of this past week, both the high profile names in TV interviews and the unknown writers of blog posts, doing everything BUT admitting that The Chosen One broke a written promise regarding the financing of his campaign. The question of whether it was the smart thing to do, or the right thing to do becomes paramount to them -- and time may very well prove those aspects of the situation to be the most important; but, the denial of wrongdoing, the refusal to accept that the Messiah's integrity may have been tarnished by HIS own deliberate actions . . . they simply cannot admit that he is less than perfect.

Speaking of less-than-perfect, a similar situation SOMETIMES (did I stress "sometimes"?) occurs with women in positions of authority traditionally held by men. A few years ago my wife and I were having a home built in a new subdivision; the foreperson of the construction site was a woman. Checking up on the progress of work on my house I noticed that a portion of the framing was incorrect -- there were options on how to frame that model and the crew were building the wrong one. When I got hold of the foreperson and pointed this out, the words were barely out of my mouth before she retorted, "No, it's not wrong." She was instantly defensive and that defensiveness took the form of denial. The same thing happened when the house was completed and we were doing a walk-through of the house with the foreperson and the builder's agent: the kitchen pantry had bi-fold doors; when I pointed out that the installer had forgotten to mount handles on the doors so that we could actually use them, once again the words had barely left my mouth when she responded, "They're not supposed to have handles," and in trying to open them (to show me that everything was correct) went so far as to stoop to the floor and try to open them by reaching under the gap between the bottom of the doors and the linoleum. The mindset -- to not appear incompetent or overwhelmed by the responsibilities of her position -- overrode all other considerations; hence, the denial. Needless to say, the installer showed up the next day to remedy his mistake. In both cases she did not apologize.

For Those Who Care About Polls

[doaner19]

Current polling has Obama winning 23 states plus Washington DC, for a total of 289 electoral votes; McCain is leading in 27 states with a total of 249 electoral votes. If Ohio, where Obama has a TINY lead, goes for McCain (they voted for Bush twice) they would end up tied: 269-269. [The tie would be broken by a vote in the House of Representatives, which would mean that Obama would win THE closest election in US history.]

Obama also has a slight lead in Virginia, a traditional red state; if Ohio and Virginia go for McCain, he beats Obama 282-256. McCain has a slight lead in Michigan, a traditional blue state; if he gets Ohio and Virginia, and Obama gets Michigan, then Obama squeaks a 273-265 win. Take that same scenario, give West Virginia to Obama and Colorado & New Mexico to McCain (a likely outcome given recent election results and the closeness between the candidates in the polls of those states); then McCain edges out Obama 274-264.

Bottom line: Ohio and/or Florida, where McCain has a lead that's a little bit stronger than Obama's lead in Ohio, will -- barring a major shift in the pulse of the electorate -- once again decide the entire election.