My predicted long-term outlooks of the major sports leagues in America: 2015 edition
Nearly five years ago, I wrote a series of posts where I predicted the long-term viability of the "big five" sports in America. Well, here we are in 2015, and it's time for my personal updates, in alphabetical order. Changes from the 2010 predictions are noted. All leagues are the highest level of professional play in the USA; college teams are excluded.
Baseball: Poor. In the short term, they're fine. They've got some pretty big TV contracts, the league is relatively stable, and the steroids scandal isn't as big a deal as it used to be. But there's one major problem: Think about how fewer boys play baseball today as did even a generation ago. Some of them are playing soccer instead; others are just sitting at home playing computer games. The key here is that I'm looking at the long-term, which I define to be 30+ years out. By the time I'm old, it would not surprise me if the league returns to its roots in the Northeast, and possibly maintains a following in California. There will be exceptions, such as the Chicago Cub fanbase that will never go away. But Texas? Missouri? No ma'am, that thar's football country.
Another major problem with this sport is that it is virtually unchanged from how it looked a century ago. Compare that with basketball, football, and hockey, all of which have experienced multiple rule changes over the years that fundamentally altered how the respective games are played. Some incredibly gimmicky relics live on, such as major-league ballparks' having ladders or flagpoles in the field of play. Can we at least get a standardized outfield configuration? That's something, BTW, I've always liked about Turner Field.
Basketball: Good Excellent. Basketball experiences a combination of two advantages that most other sports on this list don't have: It's fairly fast-paced (which baseball isn't), and serious head injuries are exceedingly rare (not so in football or hockey). The NBA strikes me as being a well-run organization that has been able to navigate through some pretty sticky challenges with surprising ease. It's never tried to take over the top spot of the NFL, nor has it gone overboard in recent times with wild expansion plans. The NBA is an excellent example of how slow and steady wins the race.
Football: Excellent Good. All of a sudden people are realizing that hey, guess what, it's actually a bad thing to smash your head into another person who just so happens to be running at a full sprint. And the NFL has done a very poor job of controlling the PR damage regarding brain damage. Well guess what. All of a sudden, mommas and daddies don't want their boys playing this incredibly dangerous sport. Imagine that!
But why am I only downgrading the prediction to "good"? Because it's football. To hell with what baseball purists believe: THIS is America's de facto official sport. This is what just about every part of the country gets up for in the fall, whether that be on a Saturday or Sunday morning. It is deeply rooted in our psyche, and it's not going to go away anytime soon.
Hockey: Good. Some of the markets are a little suspect, particularly in the Sun Belt. But the love of this game in Canada pushes the NHL over the break-even point. There are easily room for three, maybe four, new teams, possibly every single one in Ontario. (Paging itsnotfairlaika!) Still, with the exception of a select few franchises, the average American just doesn't have the same passion for hockey as the average Canadian does.
Another problem is the concussion issue, and just as with the NFL, the NHL has done a poor job of dealing with the PR damage. But there is one saving grace that hockey has that football doesn't: It would be entirely possible to take fighting and checking out of the game and still have a viable sport. Women's hockey, which forbids checking at all levels, proves that this possibility exists. Still, speaking as someone who used to be a passionate hockey fan, I can't help but imagine how much less thrilling the sport would be without two of its biggest draws in the first place.
Soccer: Good. OK, world, we get it. This is the one sport on this list that Americans know they're very unlikely to be the best at. But you know what? American soccer fans don't really care. They're less interested in that and more interested in the game that took the world by storm in the 20th century. We may be late arrivals, but we are finally here!
Baseball: Poor. In the short term, they're fine. They've got some pretty big TV contracts, the league is relatively stable, and the steroids scandal isn't as big a deal as it used to be. But there's one major problem: Think about how fewer boys play baseball today as did even a generation ago. Some of them are playing soccer instead; others are just sitting at home playing computer games. The key here is that I'm looking at the long-term, which I define to be 30+ years out. By the time I'm old, it would not surprise me if the league returns to its roots in the Northeast, and possibly maintains a following in California. There will be exceptions, such as the Chicago Cub fanbase that will never go away. But Texas? Missouri? No ma'am, that thar's football country.
Another major problem with this sport is that it is virtually unchanged from how it looked a century ago. Compare that with basketball, football, and hockey, all of which have experienced multiple rule changes over the years that fundamentally altered how the respective games are played. Some incredibly gimmicky relics live on, such as major-league ballparks' having ladders or flagpoles in the field of play. Can we at least get a standardized outfield configuration? That's something, BTW, I've always liked about Turner Field.
Basketball: Good Excellent. Basketball experiences a combination of two advantages that most other sports on this list don't have: It's fairly fast-paced (which baseball isn't), and serious head injuries are exceedingly rare (not so in football or hockey). The NBA strikes me as being a well-run organization that has been able to navigate through some pretty sticky challenges with surprising ease. It's never tried to take over the top spot of the NFL, nor has it gone overboard in recent times with wild expansion plans. The NBA is an excellent example of how slow and steady wins the race.
Football: Excellent Good. All of a sudden people are realizing that hey, guess what, it's actually a bad thing to smash your head into another person who just so happens to be running at a full sprint. And the NFL has done a very poor job of controlling the PR damage regarding brain damage. Well guess what. All of a sudden, mommas and daddies don't want their boys playing this incredibly dangerous sport. Imagine that!
But why am I only downgrading the prediction to "good"? Because it's football. To hell with what baseball purists believe: THIS is America's de facto official sport. This is what just about every part of the country gets up for in the fall, whether that be on a Saturday or Sunday morning. It is deeply rooted in our psyche, and it's not going to go away anytime soon.
Hockey: Good. Some of the markets are a little suspect, particularly in the Sun Belt. But the love of this game in Canada pushes the NHL over the break-even point. There are easily room for three, maybe four, new teams, possibly every single one in Ontario. (Paging itsnotfairlaika!) Still, with the exception of a select few franchises, the average American just doesn't have the same passion for hockey as the average Canadian does.
Another problem is the concussion issue, and just as with the NFL, the NHL has done a poor job of dealing with the PR damage. But there is one saving grace that hockey has that football doesn't: It would be entirely possible to take fighting and checking out of the game and still have a viable sport. Women's hockey, which forbids checking at all levels, proves that this possibility exists. Still, speaking as someone who used to be a passionate hockey fan, I can't help but imagine how much less thrilling the sport would be without two of its biggest draws in the first place.
Soccer: Good. OK, world, we get it. This is the one sport on this list that Americans know they're very unlikely to be the best at. But you know what? American soccer fans don't really care. They're less interested in that and more interested in the game that took the world by storm in the 20th century. We may be late arrivals, but we are finally here!