Peak Oil ArticlescousineauFebruary 9 2006, 21:29:42 UTC
Being in the energy business, I see lots or articles on the future of petroleum. The one linked below is concise, thoughtful and relevant to any discussion of BioDiesel versus the reduced consumption of a Prius.
One conclusion from this is that Peak Oil appears to be far enough off that most decisions that impact it will still be made using a short run analysis. One can define short run for most people as the expected lifespan of the capital item purchased. Assuming people buy cars every five years--A potential peak oil date of 2015 will not impact purchase decisions until 2013 at the earliest and that would require some sign it was approaching that the average buyer understood. If people wait until the price shocks hit worse than Katrina last summer, then 2017 would be the peak of short run decisions post Hubert's Peak.
Predictions of Peak Oil however are as old as the industry itself which the date always being 12-20 years in the future.
http://www.energycentral.com/site/newsletters/ebi.cfm?id=97
One conclusion from this is that Peak Oil appears to be far enough off that most decisions that impact it will still be made using a short run analysis. One can define short run for most people as the expected lifespan of the capital item purchased. Assuming people buy cars every five years--A potential peak oil date of 2015 will not impact purchase decisions until 2013 at the earliest and that would require some sign it was approaching that the average buyer understood. If people wait until the price shocks hit worse than Katrina last summer, then 2017 would be the peak of short run decisions post Hubert's Peak.
Predictions of Peak Oil however are as old as the industry itself which the date always being 12-20 years in the future.
Reply
Leave a comment