Beware The Ides Of March: Upset Central
Allow me to think out loud here... this is the time where I wish I had paid more attention to college hoops for the past 4 months. Oh well.
Here's what I'm thinking in terms of upsets (and by upset, I mean a 10 over a 7 or better):
Creighton (+120) over West Virginia. Creighton's always a good pick for an upset, but the odds aren't even worth betting on. The spread is 2 points, so F it.
Fairleigh Dickinson (+26.5) to cover vs. Illinois. At least one 1 seed gets a good scare in the first round. Illinois might be the team to get it. We'll see.
Eastern Kentucky (+16) to cover vs. Kentucky. Something tells me this inter-state matchup will be extremely close. Not that I even know what Eastern Kentucky's nickname is or anything.
Niagara (+12) to cover vs. Oklahoma. Another classic Cinderella school, Niagara could potentially make this one a close game. Then again, they could lose by 35. Too tough to call.
Winthrop (+900) over Gonzaga. When I told my brother about this one, he asked me why I'd ever consider betting against Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament. After all, Gonzaga is the ultimate bracket buster.
I came back with this logic... now that Gonzaga is a ranked team that's expected to win, they won't. This happened either last year or two years ago too, and they went out very early. Besides, the first round requires there to be at least one upset that NOBODY sees coming. And if I plunk down $10 with these odds, I get $100 ($90 plus my initial outlay) if I win. I'm real confident in this one, actually.
ODU (+350) over Michigan State. I'm just not feeling the Spartans this year, and ODU is the quintessential "We win our conference tournament and play awesome in the first round every year" team, so you never know here. Maybe worth a $5 investment, but I'm not sure.
George Washington (+210) over Georgia Tech. At least one 12 seed MUST beat a 5 seed in order for the NCAA Tourney to happen. This is my pick.
UL-Lafayette (+11.5) to cover vs. Lousiville. I actually have Louisville going to the Elite Eight, but not after a scare in the first round against an inter-state opponent. Am I making too much of the state thing? Probably.
New Mexico (+200) over Villanova. The other 12-over-5 "upset" on the docket. Can I really front on Los Lobos against Villanova? No.
Northern Iowa (+280) over Wisconsin. There's also always that 11-over-6 that everyone should have seen coming, but didn't. This may be that one. Is it me, or is Northern Iowa always the 11 seed that suprises people?
That's all for now. Right now, I'm thinking I lay $10 on Winthrop, $5 on New Mexico, $5 on Northern Iowa (maybe just on them to cover getting 7), $5 on ODU for shits and giggles, and then wait till the second round and see what's what.
If you follow college hoops, let me know if these make any sense or not!!!
Here's what I'm thinking in terms of upsets (and by upset, I mean a 10 over a 7 or better):
Creighton (+120) over West Virginia. Creighton's always a good pick for an upset, but the odds aren't even worth betting on. The spread is 2 points, so F it.
Fairleigh Dickinson (+26.5) to cover vs. Illinois. At least one 1 seed gets a good scare in the first round. Illinois might be the team to get it. We'll see.
Eastern Kentucky (+16) to cover vs. Kentucky. Something tells me this inter-state matchup will be extremely close. Not that I even know what Eastern Kentucky's nickname is or anything.
Niagara (+12) to cover vs. Oklahoma. Another classic Cinderella school, Niagara could potentially make this one a close game. Then again, they could lose by 35. Too tough to call.
Winthrop (+900) over Gonzaga. When I told my brother about this one, he asked me why I'd ever consider betting against Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament. After all, Gonzaga is the ultimate bracket buster.
I came back with this logic... now that Gonzaga is a ranked team that's expected to win, they won't. This happened either last year or two years ago too, and they went out very early. Besides, the first round requires there to be at least one upset that NOBODY sees coming. And if I plunk down $10 with these odds, I get $100 ($90 plus my initial outlay) if I win. I'm real confident in this one, actually.
ODU (+350) over Michigan State. I'm just not feeling the Spartans this year, and ODU is the quintessential "We win our conference tournament and play awesome in the first round every year" team, so you never know here. Maybe worth a $5 investment, but I'm not sure.
George Washington (+210) over Georgia Tech. At least one 12 seed MUST beat a 5 seed in order for the NCAA Tourney to happen. This is my pick.
UL-Lafayette (+11.5) to cover vs. Lousiville. I actually have Louisville going to the Elite Eight, but not after a scare in the first round against an inter-state opponent. Am I making too much of the state thing? Probably.
New Mexico (+200) over Villanova. The other 12-over-5 "upset" on the docket. Can I really front on Los Lobos against Villanova? No.
Northern Iowa (+280) over Wisconsin. There's also always that 11-over-6 that everyone should have seen coming, but didn't. This may be that one. Is it me, or is Northern Iowa always the 11 seed that suprises people?
That's all for now. Right now, I'm thinking I lay $10 on Winthrop, $5 on New Mexico, $5 on Northern Iowa (maybe just on them to cover getting 7), $5 on ODU for shits and giggles, and then wait till the second round and see what's what.
If you follow college hoops, let me know if these make any sense or not!!!