2009 Predictions
I know that about this time people start posting resolutions for the next year but what I am more interested in is what will actually happen in the new year. Because I am an analyst I always want to try my hand at predicting things too, and see why things happen the way they do. It shouldn't be a suprise with my usual cheery demeanor that I am not that possitive about the next year. I would love to be wrong about some of these predictions and somehow I feel like I am preparing for the worst case scenario. Which is what a lot of people feel like with the economy right now. Here are some of my predictions for 2009:
1. The economy will still stink. I know, big suprise there. It is still spiraling downward and I don't see a logical turnarount point or catalyst/reason for growth of any kind yet. I am pretty sure unemployment will go a lot higher, to maybe 7% or 8% because companies are still laying off in the thousands and there is no stabilization yet with many more companies on the verge of collapse.
2. Well the advertising business doesn't look hopeful either in 2009 considering that people typically don't buy much of what we sell in a recession. I have hope for my company but I can't expect them to be superhuman when it comes to the economy. I may very well be out of a job later in the year and most of my colleagues may be also. The job market sux for my skill set right now. I am not looking forward to this.
3. People will be patient with Barack Obama. As long as he keeps it real with us citizens, we will be patient to see how and when he can help lead us out of this mess. (even though it isn't his reponsibility nor technically within his power to do so, if he had a magic wand he would have used it already)
4. My 401K will shrink even further. I find it more sad than humorous that my 401K has remained at the same value all year even though I contribute 6% of my pre-tax income towards it and my company matches 3%. Yeesh. I think more of the same in 2009. I also think people should beware of the "buy mutual funds and stocks cheap" and "dollar cost averaging" mentality out there now. Some of these companies and industries don't have the innovation necessary for reviving themselves when this recession ends and will never come back. Be careful you aren't buying a dud fund/company that won't recover later. I know some people who still haven't recovered their losses from the last recession (2001) yet and this year's crash just made things worse. If you don't personally believe in what they sell/do/create don't buy it.
5. My place won't sell until summer and then it will at significantly less cash. I am predicting maybe in June for 15K less than it is listed for? Then predictably I will be living in Warrenville.
6. Despite all this doom and gloom Steve and I will be pretty happy. We are simple people so we don't require the fancy things in life. As long as we are together we will be fine, even if there is a crap economy surrounding us and our wedding. It sure is nice having cash on hand to be able to pay for it.
7. CWF and CWB will continue to be great hobbies, although I need to do more posts as well as look at additional resources for writing at some point. I can't write as well as a pro and I don't have the resources to have the word on the street everywhere. I think I want to keep growing them a bit but as always am limited by time and resources. If you know someone who needs extra cash and would like to write about local entertainment and events let me know.
8. I think deflation will happen and I think it is needed. Businesses are scared of it but it wouldn't be necessary if companies would have kept prices in a reasonable range to begin with. I certainly hope this means that the consumer awareness and cost consiousness that has been happening continues. People were way too complacent about this for too long. (I was too)
9. I will have my wisdom teeth taken out. Well this is more a need than a prediction. I am not wild about it but they tell me that you are out cold the whole time so it is probably the easiest way to deal with some wisdom teeth problems I have.
What about you? Any predictions for the new year?
1. The economy will still stink. I know, big suprise there. It is still spiraling downward and I don't see a logical turnarount point or catalyst/reason for growth of any kind yet. I am pretty sure unemployment will go a lot higher, to maybe 7% or 8% because companies are still laying off in the thousands and there is no stabilization yet with many more companies on the verge of collapse.
2. Well the advertising business doesn't look hopeful either in 2009 considering that people typically don't buy much of what we sell in a recession. I have hope for my company but I can't expect them to be superhuman when it comes to the economy. I may very well be out of a job later in the year and most of my colleagues may be also. The job market sux for my skill set right now. I am not looking forward to this.
3. People will be patient with Barack Obama. As long as he keeps it real with us citizens, we will be patient to see how and when he can help lead us out of this mess. (even though it isn't his reponsibility nor technically within his power to do so, if he had a magic wand he would have used it already)
4. My 401K will shrink even further. I find it more sad than humorous that my 401K has remained at the same value all year even though I contribute 6% of my pre-tax income towards it and my company matches 3%. Yeesh. I think more of the same in 2009. I also think people should beware of the "buy mutual funds and stocks cheap" and "dollar cost averaging" mentality out there now. Some of these companies and industries don't have the innovation necessary for reviving themselves when this recession ends and will never come back. Be careful you aren't buying a dud fund/company that won't recover later. I know some people who still haven't recovered their losses from the last recession (2001) yet and this year's crash just made things worse. If you don't personally believe in what they sell/do/create don't buy it.
5. My place won't sell until summer and then it will at significantly less cash. I am predicting maybe in June for 15K less than it is listed for? Then predictably I will be living in Warrenville.
6. Despite all this doom and gloom Steve and I will be pretty happy. We are simple people so we don't require the fancy things in life. As long as we are together we will be fine, even if there is a crap economy surrounding us and our wedding. It sure is nice having cash on hand to be able to pay for it.
7. CWF and CWB will continue to be great hobbies, although I need to do more posts as well as look at additional resources for writing at some point. I can't write as well as a pro and I don't have the resources to have the word on the street everywhere. I think I want to keep growing them a bit but as always am limited by time and resources. If you know someone who needs extra cash and would like to write about local entertainment and events let me know.
8. I think deflation will happen and I think it is needed. Businesses are scared of it but it wouldn't be necessary if companies would have kept prices in a reasonable range to begin with. I certainly hope this means that the consumer awareness and cost consiousness that has been happening continues. People were way too complacent about this for too long. (I was too)
9. I will have my wisdom teeth taken out. Well this is more a need than a prediction. I am not wild about it but they tell me that you are out cold the whole time so it is probably the easiest way to deal with some wisdom teeth problems I have.
What about you? Any predictions for the new year?