Game Over Obama.
So...super tuesday is coming up. Voting starts in just a few hours and the media just cant stop praising the rising star and saviour Obama. I agree with the reports, he is magnificent and would be incredible as president, furthermore it is true that he is on the rise in the polls.
But. Sadly they draw the wrong conclusions in my opinion. Nothing indicates that Obama walks away from Super Tuesday with a chance of winning the nomination. He has come close to Hillary in the national polls (48-44 to Hillary atm). He has closed in on her in places like New York, New Jersey and California...but, closing in isnt gonna be enough.
My prediction is that Obama carries his home state and a few other smaller/medium sized states, primarily the ones with a large coloured population. But, Hillary sweeps the big ones - which is gonna make all the difference when it comes to delegates. She might not quite make the cut to be safe home, but she will have a clear lead after winning the biggies such as New York, California etc, and after Super Tuesday comes quite a few states also in her favour - and she is backed by a vast majority of superdelegates. Even if Hillary takes a marginal loss in California, as one poll suggests she might, she is still gonna accumulate a sufficient lead to be home and dry by carrying states such as New Jersey, New York, Arizona, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Oklahoma.
Wednesday, I will be schocked if I dont wake up to a presidential race between Hillary and McCain.
Is Obama gonna be on the ticket as vicepresident with Hillary then? No. Obviously not. Obama has his support in the heartland of traditional democratic voters - students, coloured, intellectuals...groups that will vote for whatever democrat is running, just to avoid a republican. As such, Obama has nothing to offer. Hillary is gonna do what Bill did, search the south and midwest for the most conservative democrats she can find - white males exclusively, and nominate one of them.
I hope I am wrong. But I think its game over Obama.
But. Sadly they draw the wrong conclusions in my opinion. Nothing indicates that Obama walks away from Super Tuesday with a chance of winning the nomination. He has come close to Hillary in the national polls (48-44 to Hillary atm). He has closed in on her in places like New York, New Jersey and California...but, closing in isnt gonna be enough.
My prediction is that Obama carries his home state and a few other smaller/medium sized states, primarily the ones with a large coloured population. But, Hillary sweeps the big ones - which is gonna make all the difference when it comes to delegates. She might not quite make the cut to be safe home, but she will have a clear lead after winning the biggies such as New York, California etc, and after Super Tuesday comes quite a few states also in her favour - and she is backed by a vast majority of superdelegates. Even if Hillary takes a marginal loss in California, as one poll suggests she might, she is still gonna accumulate a sufficient lead to be home and dry by carrying states such as New Jersey, New York, Arizona, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Oklahoma.
Wednesday, I will be schocked if I dont wake up to a presidential race between Hillary and McCain.
Is Obama gonna be on the ticket as vicepresident with Hillary then? No. Obviously not. Obama has his support in the heartland of traditional democratic voters - students, coloured, intellectuals...groups that will vote for whatever democrat is running, just to avoid a republican. As such, Obama has nothing to offer. Hillary is gonna do what Bill did, search the south and midwest for the most conservative democrats she can find - white males exclusively, and nominate one of them.
I hope I am wrong. But I think its game over Obama.