Ok, here goes nothing...

Aug 09, 2006 11:02

Alright so, here's what everyone should do.

France, Turkey, and whoever else wants to jump on this international force bandwagon should start organizing their forces and prepare for deployment in Lebanon. This includes coordinating logistics w/ NATO and the dissemination of funds from US/UK. France says it doesn't want to put troops in until ceasefire is declared; US doesn't want to declare ceasefire until troops are ready to be put in. It's gonna be done simultaneously, so everyone stop arguing over nothing and start getting ready. It's not going to be smooth; but like sex, sometimes it's better rough then not at all.

Israel should start diplomatic talks with Syria. No matter how far Israel pushes Hezbollah back into Lebanon, they are not going to completely destroy them. Because of Hezbollah's cell structure, easily concealable missiles, and now incredibly popular support; it won't take many people to do grave amounts of PR damage. Furthermore, any multinational intervention force (the Lebanese Army included) are not likely to actively fight Hezbollah. They will probably just maintain whatever status quo was present when they arrive. Furthermore, keeping Hezbollah from seeping back into the south will require those forces to be willing to engage militarily with Hezbollah forces, which probably won't happen. Therefore, it seems the only reasonable way to prevent Hezbollah from returning to its former mischief would be to get peace with Syria. Figure out the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms issues, with these resolved, Syrians will no longer have a political need for Hezbollah (this is of course hoping that the present war hasn't empowered their image too much). With Syria (even mildly) complacent, the influx of arms and material to Hezbollah from itself and Iran would be somewhat, if not severely, limited. It's not everything needed, but it's a step in the right direction. Continuing on...

US should give Iran the recognition it so badly wants. France has long been a close friend of most Muslim nations, and as a result, its deployment to Lebanon will put it in a diplomatic bind: In the same breath, the French government denounced Iran's nuclear research while the local French diplomat hailed Iran as a "stabilizing force" in the region. The latter comment was later taken back; but still, it shows the complexity of France's commitments. If US would just give a little slack and start dealing with Iran as a country and not a terrorist group, it might give everyone a little more room to get what they want done. It's no secret that Iran's intelligence service marks Iraqis assisting (even remotely) US based companies or organizations for assassination. In fact, Iran stepped up these operations directly in response to the UN's hardline of their nuclear policy. A not so friendly way of saying "we can make life hell for you." Instead of repeatedly kneeing each other in the balls, let's step back and give each other a little breathing room. US start talking with Iran about your problems. Hopefully the people in charge are adults: use your words. This will also take pressure off the Hezbollah problem, as Iran will have less of a need to show it can cause problems for the west throughout the region. As France hopes, this will allow Hezbollah to simply fade away; instead of being actively engaged and destroyed by the deployed forces.

Iraq needs to be fixed now. Dealing with Syria and Iran as detailed above will help shore up belligerents from crossing the porous border, leaving the US to deal with the sectarian violence that has been ignited by the insecurity. This will be easier without the likes of Iran's intelligence services complicating things. Then we need a heavy influx of troops, if we can't get NATO or UN on board, maybe even a draft would be in order; it should only take a year or two to get things up to speed to hand off to the Iraqis. Without additional forces, things will just take longer; but are still possible. Once you have stability and security, everything else falls into place. The US forces already deployed can deal with sectarian violence, they can deal with Iranian meddling, they can deal with random foreigners who just come to Iraq to blow themselves up; but they can't deal with all of them at once. We need Iran, Syria, and all the regional players to leave Iraq alone, and to do that, we need to give them what they want from us; recognition and open diplomacy so we can talk. Ignoring the main governments of the middle east will not gain anyone anything. We are so deeply invested in the region, it is far easier for them to make life palpably harder for us then ever before. They don't have to cross an ocean to kick us in the shin, just go to Iraq. Give those governments a little, and they'll give us some back. Quite frankly, we need it a lot more than they do; and this little gesture will go a long way in future dealings.

Finally, Israelis and Palestinians are more similiar than most realize. The Israelis are the only people who can give the Palestinians what they want: a state. In return, the Palestinians are the only people who can give the Israelis the legitimacy they want. Until the Palestinian people themselves recognize Israel as a legitimate entity, even the moderate Muslims in the region will side with their point of view. It is in my mind one of the centerpieces of the whole middle east struggle. Palestinians and Israelis are at each other throats; Israelis blaming Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran; Palestinians blaming Mossad, IDF, and the US. The names on the surface matter so very little. It's about the people; both sides know what they want, and they are so caught up in the fight they don't see the simple steps towards peace. It's not a question of losing honor, who will say that neither Israel nor the Arab world has had the constitution to bleed for their cause? Both sides have destroyed each other to draws on several occasions. It was a good fight, now put your weapons down and figure out how to live together. If you don't, the next draw may leave no one alive to claim the land.

This is just the tip of the iceburg, but it's time for the US/UK/EU/UN to fix the middle east once and for all. Like King Abdullah of Jordan said, the major powers have to stop dealing with these conflicts piecemeal. Everything in the Middle East is intricately related, and it's time to address the core issues at once. There it is, now go do it!
Or so help me I'll figure out a way to do it myself.
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