updated predictions and hopes
I'm on my way to poll-watch, but I wanted to update my earlier predictions. They're meaningless - I had talked myself into believing Kerry would win -- but fun to make. So here goes. Sometime around 9 or 9:30 I think the networks are going to call Virginia for Obama. At this point it becomes nearly impossible for McCain to win the presidency. But Pennsylvania won't get called until after 10 at the earliest, and that's assuming no voting problems, which is a big assumption in a state with no early voting. By then the Northeast (minus NH) will be called for Obama as expected - NJ, RI, MA, ME, CT, NY, DE, MD. And Illinois will obviously be called early. But around 10 or 10:30, the dominoes start falling -- PA goes to Obama, and around 11 I expect Ohio to do the same. This is the election, the moment they call Ohio. It's over. Florida may be considerably tighter, but hopefully we won't need it. The beautiful thing is that the only McCain states I expect called before 11 are South Carolina, Kentucky and West Virginia, meaning Obama will start off and maintain a huge lead all night long. By 11:30 the Midwest -- WI, MI, MN, etc. will go Obama. By midnight Florida will fall into line and the Rocky Mountain states start to come in. By 1 a.m. the close states of the Northeast come in, North Carolina for Obama, Georgia for McCain.
Final tally: 353 Obama (Kerry + NV, CO, IA, NM, VA, FL, OH, NC). McCain holds Indiana, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Arizona, et. al. Obama's popular vote margin looks to be at least 7 if you trust the trackers. I say say 53-46. Huge landslide. Shots all around. Happiness at last.
Predictions?