state of the race
So let me just give some quick-hit thoughts on the state of the race. As my debate-watching crew was digesting the proceedings last night, I remarked that I already knew what the insta-polls would say - McCain’s nastiness was not going to play well with undecideds. And that was definitely the case. I say this as someone who often writes what we might politely term fiery partisan articles, so it’s not like I don’t understand the impulse. But then again I’m not running for president. McCain came off as, frankly, kind of a dick, especially when he sneered at Obama for never traveling to Columbia. This from the guy whose running mate has two stamps on her passport? At the same time, I wanted, as a partisan, for Obama to hit back, and hit back hard, to have a better response to McCain’s “I’m not President Bush” line, but for better or for worse, this is our guy. If you read his books, listen again to his 2004 convention speech, you’ll realize that he really isn’t a fire-breathing back-bencher. He’s a progressive who seems to bend over backwards to understand the perspective of the opposition. Remember this is something the national pundits always clobber the Democrats for - for sneering at the religious, for looking down our noses at flyover country. And finally we have a candidate who really doesn’t do these things, or is so disciplined that he doesn’t allow himself to. His faith appears to be genuine. But again I think if you read his stuff you’ll get the sense that this is genuinely who he is. He’s pro-choice but not particularly enamored of abortion, and certainly feels some kind of empathy with the pro-life contingent. While this might unnerve those of us who consider Roe v. Wade one of the cornerstones of liberty for women in this country, it will also help him win the votes of single-issue abortion voters. I have many of these people in my family.
To me there’s no question last night’s debate will help Obama. I don’t think it will move the numbers much, because the swing voters are starting to line up behind their candidates. But as much as I would like Barack Obama to run away with this thing and win by 10-12 points, I think that is exceedingly unlikely. There is a base in this country of partisan Republicans that will turn out for anyone, and if you add that to the racism element I simply do not think Obama is capable of winning much more than 52 or 53 percent of a national vote. As much as I would like to win states like North Carolina, North Dakota, and Missouri, places where we currently lead and which would give Obama a huge mandate, I think the race is going to tighten and that McCain will take these states narrowly. I also have to confess that I think McCain will pull it off in Ohio. My prediction right now is for Obama to take the Kerry states plus Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. McCain takes Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, for a final tally of 311 Obama 227 McCain. I think the Democrats pick up 7 seats in the Senate - Virginia, Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon. I think the Republicans will hold on in Georgia, Kentucky, and Minnesota (the last only because we decided to run Al $$%#$ing Franken). That gives the Dems 57 plus Lieberman For Lieberman, a big enough caucus to get some serious progressive legislation passed.
These are not my maximal dreams. I’d really like 360+ EVs, a total wipeout of the Republican Senate leadership including McConnell, and a 61-39 advantage in the chamber. These things are still marginally possible, but you have to remember just how unlikely they are. In Obama we have perhaps our most progressive (or in Republican parlance “liberal”) candidate in a generation, who happens to be black and to have a name that has led 10-15% of Americans to conclude that he’s a terrorist/Muslim/Arab/whatever. The Republicans are rolling around deep in the mud right now, and it will have an effect by election day. To ask Obama to win states that W. won by double-digits is really asking a lot of a candidate who has already torn down so many barriers. Americans don’t seem to like one party having such sweeping power and therefore it happens quite rarely. I’m not sure this is one of those moments. I still hope it is. If you want it to be, get over and give Jim Martin in Georgia some love, give Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky some love, and God help me, give Al Franken some love in Minnesota even though I fucking hate nominating celebrities, even celebrities with books.
Think big, work hard. Get out and volunteer, give money. Please don’t wake up on the morning of November 3rd and wonder if you could’ve done more.
To me there’s no question last night’s debate will help Obama. I don’t think it will move the numbers much, because the swing voters are starting to line up behind their candidates. But as much as I would like Barack Obama to run away with this thing and win by 10-12 points, I think that is exceedingly unlikely. There is a base in this country of partisan Republicans that will turn out for anyone, and if you add that to the racism element I simply do not think Obama is capable of winning much more than 52 or 53 percent of a national vote. As much as I would like to win states like North Carolina, North Dakota, and Missouri, places where we currently lead and which would give Obama a huge mandate, I think the race is going to tighten and that McCain will take these states narrowly. I also have to confess that I think McCain will pull it off in Ohio. My prediction right now is for Obama to take the Kerry states plus Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. McCain takes Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, for a final tally of 311 Obama 227 McCain. I think the Democrats pick up 7 seats in the Senate - Virginia, Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon. I think the Republicans will hold on in Georgia, Kentucky, and Minnesota (the last only because we decided to run Al $$%#$ing Franken). That gives the Dems 57 plus Lieberman For Lieberman, a big enough caucus to get some serious progressive legislation passed.
These are not my maximal dreams. I’d really like 360+ EVs, a total wipeout of the Republican Senate leadership including McConnell, and a 61-39 advantage in the chamber. These things are still marginally possible, but you have to remember just how unlikely they are. In Obama we have perhaps our most progressive (or in Republican parlance “liberal”) candidate in a generation, who happens to be black and to have a name that has led 10-15% of Americans to conclude that he’s a terrorist/Muslim/Arab/whatever. The Republicans are rolling around deep in the mud right now, and it will have an effect by election day. To ask Obama to win states that W. won by double-digits is really asking a lot of a candidate who has already torn down so many barriers. Americans don’t seem to like one party having such sweeping power and therefore it happens quite rarely. I’m not sure this is one of those moments. I still hope it is. If you want it to be, get over and give Jim Martin in Georgia some love, give Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky some love, and God help me, give Al Franken some love in Minnesota even though I fucking hate nominating celebrities, even celebrities with books.
Think big, work hard. Get out and volunteer, give money. Please don’t wake up on the morning of November 3rd and wonder if you could’ve done more.