The Aquino/Villar Factor
The California gubernatorial election of 1982 should teach us a thing or two about PERCEPTION and SPIN, and more importantly, voter behavior in the face of these.
In 1982, the Republican candidate for Governor was California State Attorney General George Deukmejian. He was running against Los Angeles City Mayor Tom Bradley, the first black gubernatorial candidate in California. Pre-election polls showed Bradley leading Deukmejian.
However, as the precincts began closing all over California, Deukmejian began to pull away from Bradley, finally resulting into a narrow win by Deukmejian over Bradley.
What happened? Exit polls revealed that while people may have publicly indicated support for Bradley, a black candidate, due to anti-racist fears, they actually voted for Deukmejian, the white candidate. This has since been known as the "Bradley Factor" and has been an important political phenomenon in the U.S., and has also been instrumental in analyzing the historic results of the 2008 presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain.
Racism issues aside, in this Philippine election where survey polls are all but trusted, it pays to consider the sentiments of the so-called silent majority, those who may not actually be surveyed or polled to begin with.
The possibility of the front-runners (i.e. Aquino or Villar) slipping may be very real and should be anticipated, with either Estrada, Teodoro, or Gordon rising. Of special interest is Teodoro, who allegedly has the support of a sizable number of wealthy (read: buena de familia) voters whose voting sentiments are not really publicized in elections. Case in point: from various sources, I've read numbers from Teodoro's miting de avance trumped that of Aquino's and Villar's.
Maybe, just maybe, there may be an "Aquino/Villar Factor" brewing. People sensitive to being branded "anti-poor" and therefore side with Villar, or fear being branded "anti-nationalistic," (i.e. anti-Cory, or whatever) and therefore side with Aquino, may just think differently, and more importantly, decide differently on Election Day.
In 1982, the Republican candidate for Governor was California State Attorney General George Deukmejian. He was running against Los Angeles City Mayor Tom Bradley, the first black gubernatorial candidate in California. Pre-election polls showed Bradley leading Deukmejian.
However, as the precincts began closing all over California, Deukmejian began to pull away from Bradley, finally resulting into a narrow win by Deukmejian over Bradley.
What happened? Exit polls revealed that while people may have publicly indicated support for Bradley, a black candidate, due to anti-racist fears, they actually voted for Deukmejian, the white candidate. This has since been known as the "Bradley Factor" and has been an important political phenomenon in the U.S., and has also been instrumental in analyzing the historic results of the 2008 presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain.
Racism issues aside, in this Philippine election where survey polls are all but trusted, it pays to consider the sentiments of the so-called silent majority, those who may not actually be surveyed or polled to begin with.
The possibility of the front-runners (i.e. Aquino or Villar) slipping may be very real and should be anticipated, with either Estrada, Teodoro, or Gordon rising. Of special interest is Teodoro, who allegedly has the support of a sizable number of wealthy (read: buena de familia) voters whose voting sentiments are not really publicized in elections. Case in point: from various sources, I've read numbers from Teodoro's miting de avance trumped that of Aquino's and Villar's.
Maybe, just maybe, there may be an "Aquino/Villar Factor" brewing. People sensitive to being branded "anti-poor" and therefore side with Villar, or fear being branded "anti-nationalistic," (i.e. anti-Cory, or whatever) and therefore side with Aquino, may just think differently, and more importantly, decide differently on Election Day.