federal canadian political thoughts - the liberal leadership convention
we should get a clearer idea of who the next liberal party of canada leader is tonight (via their speeches, if not the first-ballot vote, which is expected to look just like the last delegate vote), and it's shaping up interestingly, if unfortunately in some respects.
the decima poll, surprisingly, is showing that Bob Rae is the favourite among canadians in terms of both 'winnability' and 'best leader'. that lead extends across every province but quebec, where both Igantieff (the ostensible lead-horse, still) and Dion are more popular. it also looks likely that - if it becomes clear that this is a two man race rather than four - Dion will back Ignatieff and Kennedy will probably back Rae (this is implied as much by their relative positions on the 'Quebecois nation' motion as it their politics as a whole). this is the unfortunate part, too, though - Kennedy is as weak in Quebec and strong in Ontario as Rae is, while Dion is as strong in Quebec as Ignatieff and barely known outside of it. neither Dion or Kennedy would be particularly helpful beyond the obvious buoyancy that their delegate-support would lend to one of the others.
more personally, i'm shifting my own preference to 'Rae' from 'Ambivalent'. i had thought for the longest time that Ignatieff was preferable because, a) he was the most 'electable' as prime minister, b) he doesn't have all the parliamentary baggage, which means he would try novel and new things, and c) like Paul Martin, he'd have to err on the left-side of the spectrum for fear that he's conceived of as too neoliberal by his party and supporters. but as the last few months have shown, the first is not necessarily true - in large part because the second is just as likely to lead to gross missteps as it is successes. i still think that the third point is true, though. given that Rae might actually be more electable(!), though, and that he's made many fewer mistakes (and is much more of a guarantee to lean left), there's really no reason to go with the unknown.
the decima poll, surprisingly, is showing that Bob Rae is the favourite among canadians in terms of both 'winnability' and 'best leader'. that lead extends across every province but quebec, where both Igantieff (the ostensible lead-horse, still) and Dion are more popular. it also looks likely that - if it becomes clear that this is a two man race rather than four - Dion will back Ignatieff and Kennedy will probably back Rae (this is implied as much by their relative positions on the 'Quebecois nation' motion as it their politics as a whole). this is the unfortunate part, too, though - Kennedy is as weak in Quebec and strong in Ontario as Rae is, while Dion is as strong in Quebec as Ignatieff and barely known outside of it. neither Dion or Kennedy would be particularly helpful beyond the obvious buoyancy that their delegate-support would lend to one of the others.
more personally, i'm shifting my own preference to 'Rae' from 'Ambivalent'. i had thought for the longest time that Ignatieff was preferable because, a) he was the most 'electable' as prime minister, b) he doesn't have all the parliamentary baggage, which means he would try novel and new things, and c) like Paul Martin, he'd have to err on the left-side of the spectrum for fear that he's conceived of as too neoliberal by his party and supporters. but as the last few months have shown, the first is not necessarily true - in large part because the second is just as likely to lead to gross missteps as it is successes. i still think that the third point is true, though. given that Rae might actually be more electable(!), though, and that he's made many fewer mistakes (and is much more of a guarantee to lean left), there's really no reason to go with the unknown.