US Manufacturing Very Recessionary

Oct 08, 2015 03:02

TD issued a little-noticed memo to clients last week, pointing out that the seven regional manufacturing surveys have seen back-to-back quarterly contractions. The last time this occurred was during the Great Recession, and before that, the 2001 recession.

From Business Insider:

American manufacturing is in recession



"The manufacturing sector has been like a sore thumb for the US economic recovery lately," TD wrote Wednesday. "Since last year, this crucial sector has struggled to navigate against the headwinds coming from the collapse in global energy prices, the drag from the strengthening dollar on export activity and the weakening in global demand."

We've rarely seen manufacturing behave like this without the whole of the US economy getting dragged down with it. The $64,000 questions are 1) Will it be that different this time? 2) And if the answer is no, how long can the service sector offset this slump?

manufacturing, coincident indicators, leading indicators

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