It's starting to look a lot like Recession, 2015
It's Starting to Look a Lot Like Recession, 2015
It's been almost six years since the end of the last recession and start of the current expansion. Did you feel it?
Humor aside, the last recession by all sorts of measures was truly the worst since the 1930s, and the expansion the weakest. While many people are back to work, part-time and/or lower paying jobs continue to strain many households - a trend that we have seen repeated after every downturn since the 1980s.
It is fair to say that historically speaking, we are much closer now to our next recession, than our last. In fact, it may already be coming into focus.
It's starting to look a lot like Recession, 2015
Core Retail Sales Not Doing So Well
Import/Export pricing is signaling very weak demand and deflation
Employment revisions have flipped from clearly positive to clearly negative.
Image credit: Advisor Perspectives (Doug Short).
In fact, as Tyler Durden likes to point out, There are now multiple charts potentially arguing that the U.S. has entered a new recession
Risk of Financial Crisis Reduxdux
If this is indeed going to be a pronounced, pervasive and persistent downturn, the 'Three Ps" hallmark of recessions, is there a risk of renewed, or all-new financial crisis. The answer appears to be yes, except this time it might not be all home-grown.
Fragile China
China outlook even worse than imagined: Morgan Stanley
..."China, to try and sustain its growth rate in the post-financial-crisis era, has engaged in the largest credit binge of any emerging market in history," said Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Sharma, speaking Tuesday at the Global Private Equity Conference in Washington, D.C., predicted that the credit boom would cause problems.
Whenever a country increases its debt to gross domestic product sharply over five years, in the next five years there's a 70 percent chance of a financial crisis and 100 percent chance of a major economic slowdown, according to Morgan Stanley research...
A Diminished Toolkit
The world economy is starting to look a lot like the Titanic, HSBC chief economist warns
Like the ill-fated White Star liner, the global economy is sailing across the ocean with too few lifeboats and an iceberg looming on the horizon, warns HSBC chief economist Stephen King.
And that’s going to be a titanic problem for global policy makers.
It’s been six years since the last U.S. recession and though they don’t come like clockwork, King says we are closer to the next one than the last one.
But unlike past downturns, the weak recovery from the last recession has not allowed monetary policymakers to replenish their arsenals...
Student Debt May be a Ticking Time Bomb
America’s Student Debt Pain Threatening a Corner of Bond Market
America’s mounting student-debt problem is threatening to create trouble in part of a $170 billion bond market tied to government-guaranteed loans.
With borrowers increasingly struggling to repay their student loans, Moody’s Investors Service is warning it may take investors longer than promised to get their money back. The credit grader said this month it may lower rankings on $3 billion of top-rated debt as investors face the threat of slowing principal payments or even receiving no interest.
The concern underscores the fallout from a record $1.2 trillion in U.S. student loans that’s spreading to everything from the housing market and consumer spending to taxpayers. As a sluggish economic recovery forces borrowers to miss payments or tap relief programs, only 37 percent are current and reducing their balances, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York presentation this month...
It's been almost six years since the end of the last recession and start of the current expansion. Did you feel it?
Humor aside, the last recession by all sorts of measures was truly the worst since the 1930s, and the expansion the weakest. While many people are back to work, part-time and/or lower paying jobs continue to strain many households - a trend that we have seen repeated after every downturn since the 1980s.
It is fair to say that historically speaking, we are much closer now to our next recession, than our last. In fact, it may already be coming into focus.
It's starting to look a lot like Recession, 2015
Core Retail Sales Not Doing So Well
Import/Export pricing is signaling very weak demand and deflation
Employment revisions have flipped from clearly positive to clearly negative.
Image credit: Advisor Perspectives (Doug Short).
In fact, as Tyler Durden likes to point out, There are now multiple charts potentially arguing that the U.S. has entered a new recession
Risk of Financial Crisis Reduxdux
If this is indeed going to be a pronounced, pervasive and persistent downturn, the 'Three Ps" hallmark of recessions, is there a risk of renewed, or all-new financial crisis. The answer appears to be yes, except this time it might not be all home-grown.
Fragile China
China outlook even worse than imagined: Morgan Stanley
..."China, to try and sustain its growth rate in the post-financial-crisis era, has engaged in the largest credit binge of any emerging market in history," said Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Sharma, speaking Tuesday at the Global Private Equity Conference in Washington, D.C., predicted that the credit boom would cause problems.
Whenever a country increases its debt to gross domestic product sharply over five years, in the next five years there's a 70 percent chance of a financial crisis and 100 percent chance of a major economic slowdown, according to Morgan Stanley research...
A Diminished Toolkit
The world economy is starting to look a lot like the Titanic, HSBC chief economist warns
Like the ill-fated White Star liner, the global economy is sailing across the ocean with too few lifeboats and an iceberg looming on the horizon, warns HSBC chief economist Stephen King.
And that’s going to be a titanic problem for global policy makers.
It’s been six years since the last U.S. recession and though they don’t come like clockwork, King says we are closer to the next one than the last one.
But unlike past downturns, the weak recovery from the last recession has not allowed monetary policymakers to replenish their arsenals...
Student Debt May be a Ticking Time Bomb
America’s Student Debt Pain Threatening a Corner of Bond Market
America’s mounting student-debt problem is threatening to create trouble in part of a $170 billion bond market tied to government-guaranteed loans.
With borrowers increasingly struggling to repay their student loans, Moody’s Investors Service is warning it may take investors longer than promised to get their money back. The credit grader said this month it may lower rankings on $3 billion of top-rated debt as investors face the threat of slowing principal payments or even receiving no interest.
The concern underscores the fallout from a record $1.2 trillion in U.S. student loans that’s spreading to everything from the housing market and consumer spending to taxpayers. As a sluggish economic recovery forces borrowers to miss payments or tap relief programs, only 37 percent are current and reducing their balances, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York presentation this month...