ECRI Recession Call 2012
ECRI Recession Call 2012
8 Days Left...
Are we in a new recession, as ECRI has forecast would be the case by the end of this month?
We are looking at key leading to coincident indicators that usually indicate a recession is actually underway, has just begun, or is imminent, to help us determine if ECRI's recession call for a new US recession by the middle of 2012 (8 days away), is happening, or not.
Today we take a look at the U3 unemployment rate.
In past post-WWII recessions in the US, the U3 unemployment rate goes parabolic in our recessions, starting its rapid rise from between two months prior, to two months inside of, the actual new recession. Let's take a look:
Above: Post WWII US Unemployment Rate
Th unemployment rate has clearly been trending down, not up. Even though the U3 rate went up by one tiny tenth of one percent last month, it doesn't even register in the whole scheme of things. By comparison, the unemployment rate also had secondary peaks or plateaus (sometimes even higher than the actual peak during the recession, itself) after the recessions of: 1958, 1960, 1970, 1973, 1982, 1990, and 2001. So, despite what some in the media and blogosphere want us to believe, the fact that the unemployment rate ticked up one tiny point last month in no way, shape, or form means that a new recession is somehow certainly underway. Such fluctuations during recoveries are actually normal.
8 Days Left...
Are we in a new recession, as ECRI has forecast would be the case by the end of this month?
We are looking at key leading to coincident indicators that usually indicate a recession is actually underway, has just begun, or is imminent, to help us determine if ECRI's recession call for a new US recession by the middle of 2012 (8 days away), is happening, or not.
Today we take a look at the U3 unemployment rate.
In past post-WWII recessions in the US, the U3 unemployment rate goes parabolic in our recessions, starting its rapid rise from between two months prior, to two months inside of, the actual new recession. Let's take a look:
Above: Post WWII US Unemployment Rate
Th unemployment rate has clearly been trending down, not up. Even though the U3 rate went up by one tiny tenth of one percent last month, it doesn't even register in the whole scheme of things. By comparison, the unemployment rate also had secondary peaks or plateaus (sometimes even higher than the actual peak during the recession, itself) after the recessions of: 1958, 1960, 1970, 1973, 1982, 1990, and 2001. So, despite what some in the media and blogosphere want us to believe, the fact that the unemployment rate ticked up one tiny point last month in no way, shape, or form means that a new recession is somehow certainly underway. Such fluctuations during recoveries are actually normal.