Countdown to ECRI Recession Call 2012 ... Just 10 Days Left
ECRI RECESSION CALL 2012
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The Recession: ECRI Recession Call
Last September ECRI, the Economic Cycle Research Institute, resolutely announced to its clients and the rest of the world that the U.S. was unequivocally tipping into a new recession "and there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off."
Funny, it's been nine months later and you can scarcely find one serious economist out there, not even the permabears, that would agree that we have been in recession since then.
So more recently, Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director of ECRI, has come out to fine-tune their call publicly, saying that they really meant to state that a new recession in the U.S. would begin by next summer. Wow, nine months away. But we have the tape. Their call back in September of 2011 made it pretty clear to most of us that they meant imminent recession. Roll tape:
Since September, 2011, the US economy clearly picked back up, actually enjoying a robust winter. Admittedly, spring has slowed down some - not like spring 2008 or even spring 2001 kind of slow down, but sure, a "softness" is noted. However, we have yet to see even one month of negative job loss, virtually a necessary qualifier to any NBER defined recession in the United States.
A look at US GDP between Q3 of 2011 and Q1 of 2012, along with US private employment net gains or losses:
US GDP Annualized Rates 2011 Q3, 2011 Q4 & 2012 Q1
Not a single quarter of contraction, let alone nine months' worth
US Private Nonfarm Payrolls July 2011 - May 2012
Not a single month of contraction, let alone nine months' worth
Dude, Laksh, Where's My Recession?
Well, in fairness, perhaps Mr. Achuthan should have held off making his rounds to all the public news outlets until this summer, seeing as they, ahem, "clarified" their recession call to actually mean by mid 2012.
So, here at the_recession we have given ECRI the benefit of the doubt that what they really meant to say all along was new recession by the middle of 2012, and thus have been tracking the progress of this ECRI recession call 2012.
The middle of 2012 is June 30th. For the next ten days we will be counting down to the ECRI recession call 2012 forecast "recession by" date, and I will be including posts that argue pro and con as to whether or not an actual recession is in fact now underway (recall that ECRI did not say a recession will start after mid 2012; rather, ECRI refined their September, 2011 announcement to clarify that a new recession would start, ie: be underway, by mid year 2012).
Comments are open
10...
The Recession: ECRI Recession Call
Last September ECRI, the Economic Cycle Research Institute, resolutely announced to its clients and the rest of the world that the U.S. was unequivocally tipping into a new recession "and there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off."
Funny, it's been nine months later and you can scarcely find one serious economist out there, not even the permabears, that would agree that we have been in recession since then.
So more recently, Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director of ECRI, has come out to fine-tune their call publicly, saying that they really meant to state that a new recession in the U.S. would begin by next summer. Wow, nine months away. But we have the tape. Their call back in September of 2011 made it pretty clear to most of us that they meant imminent recession. Roll tape:
Since September, 2011, the US economy clearly picked back up, actually enjoying a robust winter. Admittedly, spring has slowed down some - not like spring 2008 or even spring 2001 kind of slow down, but sure, a "softness" is noted. However, we have yet to see even one month of negative job loss, virtually a necessary qualifier to any NBER defined recession in the United States.
A look at US GDP between Q3 of 2011 and Q1 of 2012, along with US private employment net gains or losses:
US GDP Annualized Rates 2011 Q3, 2011 Q4 & 2012 Q1
Not a single quarter of contraction, let alone nine months' worth
US Private Nonfarm Payrolls July 2011 - May 2012
Not a single month of contraction, let alone nine months' worth
Dude, Laksh, Where's My Recession?
Well, in fairness, perhaps Mr. Achuthan should have held off making his rounds to all the public news outlets until this summer, seeing as they, ahem, "clarified" their recession call to actually mean by mid 2012.
So, here at the_recession we have given ECRI the benefit of the doubt that what they really meant to say all along was new recession by the middle of 2012, and thus have been tracking the progress of this ECRI recession call 2012.
The middle of 2012 is June 30th. For the next ten days we will be counting down to the ECRI recession call 2012 forecast "recession by" date, and I will be including posts that argue pro and con as to whether or not an actual recession is in fact now underway (recall that ECRI did not say a recession will start after mid 2012; rather, ECRI refined their September, 2011 announcement to clarify that a new recession would start, ie: be underway, by mid year 2012).
Comments are open