Sun is out, don't see no new recession here, ma
Many on the web the past few weeks have claimed that there can not possibly be a new recession, because of x, y, or z. Most recently, many in this vocal majority have targeted the most recent Ceridian UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (discussed here, in a post yesterday). They state that the index has fallen before without signalling recession, and so can not be taken in isolation, because, they say, it is an outlier that means nothing - that it will soon rebound, AND/OR they state that the index is simply weak because truckers are finding ways to travel more efficiently, and as such that must be the reason truckers are using less diesel recently.
Okay. Well, if the downturn in trucker's use of diesel, which is what makes up the Ceridian UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, is indeed just an indicator of increased efficiency, then there should not be similar slides in other transportation indices, right? Fair enough.
A look at two other leading transportation indices, then.
First off, another look at the
Year-Over-Year Growth in the Ceridian UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index:
Ok, so a totally different transportation index, then.
Railfax Rail Traffic Year-over-Year Change 13 Wk Rolling Averages:
And finally, the Harper Petersen Shipping Index:
