More Summer Data Down, Poll Up: Has The Next Recession Already Started?

[cieldumort]

With now July data continuing a hideous trend of weakening we have seen, weakening really since last fall, and so with the economy now in an all-out technical "Growth Recession," what do you think its prospects are for the rest of the year?

This Week's Data Lowlights:

Calculated Risk
Consumer Sentiment declines sharply in July

The preliminary July

Comments

[sophiaserpentia]

I blame them all. They all work for the banksters. The Republicans stonewalled and obstructed any chance for actual debate, and when the Democrats had a chance to fix the problem structurally (ending "too big to fail," instituting strong banking sector oversight, or meaningfully addressing the moral hazard in TARP) they balked at all of that. What measures they did enact to help Main Street - HAMP, Cash for Clunkers, etc. - were too small and too ineffectual. All along Wall Street has been pulling the strings, and look how well they've done since 2008.

Now we the people get to eat the "austerity" it takes to pay for socializing Wall Street's former losses. It's going to cause another recession, whether now or in Q4 or Q1 it's pretty well unavoidable at this point.

[sophiaserpentia]

Plus we shouldn't overlook the effects of what's going on in Europe, either. Greece got another bailout and it looks like they're going to default anyway. The people of Iceland refused to accept austerity measures that put them on the hook to pay for their banksters' misdeeds. A bunch of banks over there failed stress tests - they're on the edge of the precipice.

And then, and then, we get to the mother of all policy fails, the likelihood that increases with every passing second that the US Treasury will default on its bills August 2.

[cieldumort]

Yeah. You know, I really had to reconsider my vote of a 25% chance the current slowdown morphs into a technical recession. You are right on all points, of course. I'm trying to remain hopeful, but that shouldn't slant my vote here. So, I'm also in at a 50-50... and really, if we blow the debt ceiling, all bets are off... GD2 may even be back on the table in next to no time. The one silver lining in all of this *one hopes* is for a real wake-up call of moderates and liberals to get the f'in wingnuts and corpdems out of office.

[sophiaserpentia]

There's a part of me that still believes we won't blow the debt ceiling thing, mainly because the puppet masters are starting to ratchet up their complaints.

The rich have done really well but they've mainly been cannibalizing the wreckage of the recession and that feeding frenzy is over now. For them to have sustainable profits they need the middle class to buy consumer goods, but the middle class is in deep despair.

Even though the recession ended, I do think we are still in a depression that by my calculations is about halfway over. We are in 1936, is what I'm saying.

[cieldumort]

Half-way over, unless a larger government or several governments mishandle things in a significant way within the next five or so years. So thank our lucky stars that could never happen.