More Summer Data Down, Poll Up: Has The Next Recession Already Started?
With now July data continuing a hideous trend of weakening we have seen, weakening really since last fall, and so with the economy now in an all-out technical "Growth Recession," what do you think its prospects are for the rest of the year?
This Week's Data Lowlights:
Calculated Risk
Consumer Sentiment declines sharply in July
The preliminary July Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined sharply to 63.8 from 71.5 in June.
Click on graph for larger image in graphic gallery.
In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices. However, even with lower gasoline prices, consumer sentiment declined sharply - possible because of the heavy coverage of the debt ceiling charade.
This was well below the consensus forecast of 71.0 and definitely in the recession range.
the_recession Mod Note: The Michigan Survey of Consumers declined so much that its director stated: "Whenever the Expectations Index has been this low in the past, the economy has been in recession."
ZeroHedge
JOLTS Summary: More Government Workers Quitting Voluntarily, More Private Sector Workers Getting Fired
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/12/2011 10:27 -0400
There was nothing to smile about in today's May JOLTS release from the BLS. Those expecting a pick up in job openings (traditionally the key requirement for an sustained increase in NFP) will have to wait some more, after the May number came at 3.0 million, the same as April. This is modestly better than the all time low of 2.1 million in July 2009, but is a far cry from the 4.4 million when the Depression started. And while there was no good news in Job Openings, there was some bad news in Total Separations which increased by over 200K sequentially from 3.833 MM to 4.059 MM...
Dshort.com
By Dough Short
Retail Sales: The "Real" Consumer Remains in a Recession
Click for a larger image
By this analysis, adjusted retail sales ex gasoline dropped 0.2% in June from the previous month and a full 2.2% from the interim high in February and 11.9% below its all-time high in January 2006.
The Great Recession of the Financial Crisis is behind us, but a close analysis of retail sales suggests that the recovery has been weak and may be showing signs of stalling. And in "real" terms - adjusted for population growth and inflation - the consumer economy remains in a recession.
Dshort.com
By Doug Short
Small Business Sentiment: The Recession Continues Unabated
the_recession Mod Note: Spiking newly unemployed has entered in-new-recession mode:
POLLING BOOTH
Poll Recession Guessin