Growth Recession: Imminent?
While we have had a pretty smart rebound in employment over the past few months, with an almost remarkable boost to employment in manufacturing and related businesses, estimates for first quarter growth keep coming down, and down, and down. With oil and gas hitting levels not seen since 2008, housing in an "L" non-recovery (at best), and more, are we looking at the start of unemployment rising again. (Recall the 'non-recession' re-dip of 2002/03, perhaps, for a possible, if not at all exact, comparison).
Capital Economics:
GDP growth slowed to a crawl in first quarter
Every data release last week seemed to necessitate a further downward revision to our first-quarter GDP growth forecast. By the end of the week when the dust had finally settled, that estimate was down to only 1% at an annualised pace. Indeed, there is now even a decent outside chance that the economy contracted outright.
Is Negative Non-Farm Payroll Growth Next???
Capital Economics:
GDP growth slowed to a crawl in first quarter
Every data release last week seemed to necessitate a further downward revision to our first-quarter GDP growth forecast. By the end of the week when the dust had finally settled, that estimate was down to only 1% at an annualised pace. Indeed, there is now even a decent outside chance that the economy contracted outright.
Is Negative Non-Farm Payroll Growth Next???