"Soft Patch"? "Soft Landing"? Something Else? Q1 US GDP Seen Unexpectedly Weak...
ZeroHedge.com
Goldman Q1 GDP Imminent Downgrade Warning Gets Louder:
"Significant Downside Risk To Our Q1 GDP Estimate Of +3.5% "
...From Jan Hatzius' instanalysis on Personal Consumption data.
1. Nominal consumer spending increased by 0.7% mom in February, but part of the large increased reflected price gains. Real consumer spending increased by 0.3% mom after an unchanged reading in January. The latest real consumption figures - including revisions to earlier months - point to growth for Q1 as a whole of approximately 1.75-2.0% qoq annualized. This compares to our current forecast of +3.0%. The report therefore implies significant downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of +3.5% qoq annualized.
Roubini.com
U.S. Durable Goods and Other Data Cast a Shadow on Q1 GDP
Durable goods orders fell 0.9% m/m in February following a commercial aircraft-driven gain of 3.6% in January. Core durable goods orders (nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft), a leading indicator of future investment, fell back 1.3% in February after a sharp 6% drop in January 2011. Shipments of core durable goods, which are an indicator of current business investment in equipment and software, rose a modest 0.8% after a 2.3% drop in January.
The second consecutive drop in core durable goods orders in February 2011...